Bitcoin’s success as a pure speculative vehicle benefits more from tight supplies than any other factor. Its deep-pocketed sponsors don’t bolt for the exits whenever the going gets tough, even if they rely on crazy young people (‘verrückte verdammte junge leute’, colloquially) to provide the manic buying power that alone can rocket Bitcoin to stupid heights. Today’s decisive breakdown (see inset chart) implies DaBoyz have decided to let the value of their precious virtual hoard plunge into white space that is unlikely to evince much support until $65,000 or so is reached (see chart inset). That would amount to a 25% haircut, or 40% from the record $108k achieved in December. This is a bold gamble but necessary if the Masters of the Universe are to avoid having to suck up untold Satoshi tonnage dumped by the hoi-polloi in a global bear market. Has the bear arrived? It’s certainly possible, and we will, therefore, continue to check Bitcoin’s pulse regularly to get an accurate ‘read’ on a speculative mania that has pushed shares steeply higher since 2009. Stay tuned!