$GCG25 – February Gold (Last:2647.90)

Last week’s leap through the 2662 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown shortened the odds of a further run-up to d=2728,30, but I doubt the rally will top the record high 2826 achieved on October 30. That’s because of the power of the bearish impulse leg in November that took the February contract from 2826 down to 2565 in just two weeks.  This implies that quotes will fall to 2500 before this vehicle can get good traction. More immediately, a drop to the green line (x=2629.60) should be regarded as an opportunity to bottom-fish ‘mechanically’. The implied $33 stop-loss means the trade should be executed only with a small-pattern (i.e., ‘camouflage’) trigger to reduce entry risk by at least 90% theoretical. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 9:43 a.m.): Using reverse a=2636.50 (15m, Jan 6 a7 2:45 a.m.) produced a quick, theoretical gain of $700 per contract, with two contracts covered at 2638.20 and two still ‘live’.  The ‘d’ target lies at 2651.80, and a pullback to 2631.40 would trigger another ‘mechanical’ long, stop 2624.50. _______ UPDATE (11:16 a.m.) Feb Gold has pulled back $9 after coming within a dime of the 2651.80 rally target I furnished a little more than an hour ago (see above). Going by-the-book and using reverse a=2636.6 would have produced a profit of around $4,800 on four contracts. That assumes a 50% partial profit at p=2,638.20, 25% at p2=2645.00, and the last 25% at d=2651.80.

Leave a Comment