$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:90.27)

T-Bonds got crushed last week, reversing precipitously from within an inch of what would have been a bullish breakout. The gap down through p=91.82 all but guarantees the downtrend will continue to a minimum D=88.78, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished by interpolating the target for March T-Bond futures. The reversal is likely to work precisely if at all, so you can use a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks (or a ‘camo’ trigger) to get long. If the target is easily penetrated, that would be bad news for bonds and correspondingly bullish for interest rates. Higher rates would of course keep pressure on gold.

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