With TLT poised for a breakout, I’ve lowered my target for rates on the 10-Year Note to 4.094%.  The pattern is pretty nutty but still good enough for government work. That means D can be bought with a tight stop, using whatever vehicle you favor for trading the swings in long-term rates. Also, a decisive penetration of the Hidden Pivot support would imply rates are likely to fall even further. Could this indicate a recession is imminent? We’ll worry about that after we’ve seen interest rate bears — i.e., those who expect yields to fall — interact with the support.