The rally off the last low, 82.42, has been so unimpressive that we must consider the possibility of more downside to at least p=78.05 as the most likely scenario for the winter months. TLT would be a screaming buy at that price, although without any guarantees of a rip-roaring rally capable of surpassing the December 2022 peak at 109.68. Not coincidentally, the chart of TYX, which tracks interest rates on the long bond, has signaled a ‘mechanical’ buy for a move to as high as 6.16% (!). That number seems unreal, since the economy, along with the banking system, would almost surely collapse long before rates got that high. Or would they? In any event, the buy signal is about as ‘textbook’ as they get, so we’ll need to take it seriously even if we can’t understand it.