ESH24 – March E-Mini S&Ps (Last:4816.50)

We’ll need to be on our guard as the S&Ps frolic in the discomfort zone, just an inch above the then-record highs recorded at the start of 2022. The Mother of All Tops is very likely to come with a series of upward spasms, each of which creates a marginal new high. However, looking casually at this chart, the eye ‘wants’ to see one of those highs occur on a nasty and distinctive spike that presumably would disembowel the last remaining shorts. This may require a running start from below 4500, and if the futures were to fall to there now, I would still expect one last run-up. Meanwhile, Microsoft seems no less likely to reach the 430 target I’ve been drum-rolling as a bellwether, even if the process is as fraught as the one I’ve described above for the S&Ps.