Just a little lower and it will be Katie-bar-the-door time for the buck. Last week’s moderate rally pushed DXY out of the red zone, but the trend will have to exceed the 104.26 peak recorded on 12/8 to become a safe bet, if only for a short while. In retrospect, the failure to push above the 107.99 ‘external’ peak recorded last February foreshadowed problems. Bulls turned timid just when they needed an extra inch of push, and that may have sealed the dollar’s fate over the intermediate term.