The chart journeys back to 2021 to capture the weight and relentlessness of the downtrend, a full-blown bear market that has cut the price of this vehicle by 53% since its covid-era peak in March 2020. Over that time, interest rates on the long bond went from 0.8% to 5.05%, a so-far high achieved two weeks ago. Was that the top? I doubt it and still think TLT will fall to the 80.84 target before it can turn around. To even hint of a better outcome, the current rally would need to exceed 89.49, an ‘external’ peak recorded Sep 29 on the way down.