This War Is Not a Tradeable Event

The massive terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend will unsettle the geopolitical world for the foreseeable future. The economic implications are potentially too grave to be treated merely as a tradeable event; investors should instead be thinking about safeguarding capital. Will the price of crude spike to $117 or higher, as predicted here last week? A chart supporting that conclusion appears in retrospect to have been prescient.  However, I doubt the $117 price will be hit until the global supply of oil has actually been curtailed.

Hezbollah’s entry into the war could cause this to happen overnight. They’ve been firing rockets at strategic targets in Israel, a provocation that threatens to unleash a retaliatory response frightening to imagine.  Electromagnetic pulse (EMP), for one. The use of a pulse weapon would amount to Hiroshima without the body count, forever altering the way war is conducted. Cities, regions or even nations could go dark instantly, transported back to the Stone Age when everything powered by electricity ceases to work.

Whatever happens, the possibilities are too complex, and potentially too disastrous, for investors to handicap. These all-too-interesting times have become still more interesting, leaving all of us at the mercy of the news as the holiday season approaches.

  • Pan October 10, 2023, 8:18 am

    Hi Rick,

    Forgive me if I embarrass you. But, the fact you were able to predict this event through your charts is truly amazing, the number of people on this planet who have that ability a few indeed. I know there are some who might think what was so special about simply interpreting a trading pattern? Well, I didn’t see anyone else connect the dots.

    Total respect, best regards,

    Pan

    &&&&

    Thanks, Pan. I actually do believe that news ‘happens’ in ways that validate chart patterns whose pre-ordained cyclicality will remain forever mysterious to us. Thus, if stocks scream higher on seemingly ‘bad’ news, the pundits will spin the news in a bullish way, sometimes stretching logic to the point of absurdity.

    My English major brain often has trouble understanding things that a fifth grader would grasp instantly. The tradeoff is that it can connect the dots in imaginative ways. This helped me solve the Contac/Dietac case for the FBI. The motive seemed so obvious to me that I was surprised no one else saw it. I am equally surprised that so few seem to understand why a catastrophic deflationary bust is inevitable. RA

  • RICHARD CHARLES October 9, 2023, 2:13 pm

    Not a teachable nor tradeable event ? Perhaps so.

    Are we Facing Market Panic ?
    Extreme language suggests we may be

    Drudge
    BARBARISM: Hamas behead Israeli soldiers in shock footage…
    SIEGE OF GAZA; WATER, FOOD, POWER CUT OFF…
    Netanyahu vows to ‘change Middle East’…
    Grief and anger in Israel as fight continues…
    300,000 reservists mobilized…
    Hamas Says Attacks Were Backed by Iran…
    Revolutionary Guard gave go-ahead last week in Beirut…
    ‘The Guest’: The Palestinian mastermind…
    Practiced assault in plain sight!
    Greatest intel failure in Israeli history…
    ‘Worst Massacre of Jews Since Holocaust’…
    DESERT RAVE TURNS HELL… 750 attendees missing…
    Sister of TV personality killed ‘execution style’…
    Celebrations in London… Kosher restaurant windows smashed…
    Sydney Jewish community warned to stay home…
    Counter-protestors rally in Manhattan…
    Kremlin sees ‘high risk’ of third party entering conflict…
    Across Mideast, Surge of Support for Palestinians…
    Infiltrators from Lebanon killed…
    Reporters breaking down
    https://www.thegatewaypundi

    Perspective
    There are now over 800 Israelis dead (not including hostages who might be dead or injured that might die) – out of a population of 9.3 million in Israel The U.S. population in 340 million – the Israeli loss, in US terms, is 29k Americans

    Holocausts around holidays especially tragic

    Carter’s 444 day Tehran Embassy and Op Eagle Claw Hostage Rescue fails 44 years ago beg comparison
    https://www.jimmycarterlibr

    We Will Not Be Seeing the President Today” – Joe Biden Goes Into Hiding, Calls a Lid Before Noon as Hamas Holds Americans Hostage
    https://www.thegatewaypundi

    We are short

  • CivilIan47 October 9, 2023, 6:30 am

    “Cities, regions or even nations could go dark instantly, transported back to the Stone Age when everything powered by electricity ceases to work.”

    I’ve seen footage of Hamas and/or Hezbollah terrorists, going door to door looking for Jewish people. Worse than the Stone Age already, from what most hoped was a bygone era. On the other hand, Israel did supply Azerbaijan with arms, which they have and are using against poor little Armenia. I do not say this to justify the violence against Israel or, God forbid, support the religion of peace carrying out these attacks. It is the simple truth, troubling and heartbreaking as it is…

    Live by the sword, die by the sword. The world and its ways are rotten.

    This latest eruption of war will disrupt ME energy output and/or exports, for sure. With Russia having taken itself out of the energy picture, that leaves everything ripe for Turkey to take hold of. Lots of energy in the -stan countries around the Caspian. These are historically Turkic people and, as it happens, Erdogan has long since made it known that his goal in life is to increase Turkic influence in the world and to revive the old Ottoman empire. With Turkey sitting between Asian and European demand for energy, I cannot see that he won’t achieve those goals.