Last week’s commentary said the first big correction of 2023 had a ways to go, and that is still the case. If there were any doubts about this, Apple’s swan dive Thursday on punk Q2 earnings released after the close should have dispelled them. The most valuable stock in the world fell by nearly 5%, shrinking the global ‘wealth effect’ by around $144 billion. This is unlikely to weigh on yacht sales as summer heads into the final turn, but it could impact them eventually if the stock, and few others favored by portfolio managers, fall to the worst-case targets on some of my charts.
Goggle Porn
It was word of a third straight quarter of falling revenues that upset investors, and innovation alone is unlikely to arrest the decline. That’s because without Steve Jobs, the company has been unable to innovate its way out of a Glad bag. iPhone improvements have come mainly in the form of improved cameras and better batteries, but the wow factor has been lacking. The company took a stab at it with the introduction of a pair of $3500 virtual reality goggles a few weeks ago, and although the technology was impressive, consumers still seem to have doubts about whether it’s cool to turn on, tune in and drop out with your head in a plastic shell.
If and when the Visual Pro goggles are tweaked to deliver a satisfying sexual experience to perhaps three or four of our five senses, that’s when sales will take off no matter what the price. In the meantime, AAPL stock will continue to fall, taking the broad averages down with it until its deep-pocketed sponsors sense that sellers are exhausted. Then the gaseous wafting cycle will begin anew as short-covering and gap-up openings circumvent the need for capital or even bullish buyers. For more on how this hoax works, click here to access my recent interview on Howe Street’s This Week in Money.
Kudos Rick for continuing market accuracy
And an excellent insightful if modest interview on Howe Street.
Your Chat Room trades with AAPL, TLT and $USD inspire.
Zillow saw San Francisco Residential Real Estate – 12.8 % this past year.
The excitement may be just beginning.
Wolf Street saw San Francisco Commercial Real Estate – 70+ % in San Francisco last year, with loan defaults at 14 year highs. Despite rumors of RE vulture funds on the wing, no one dared call Bottom yet.
As a hedge, we have a + 82 % Target on JNUG, high risk reward short term trade with a 0.93 % dividend.
JNUG came down from 180,000 in June 2014
JNUG compounded lower since, as double leveraged Exchange Traded Funds usually do.
https://www.direxion.com/uploads/JNUG-JDST-Fact-Sheet.pdf
We continue to accumulate SLVP long term above 7.86 with a 2.17 % dividend and VGPMX above 9.77 with a 3.04 % dividend long term. SLVP has gone down to sideways since 2012.
https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/slvp-ishares-msci-global-silver-and-metals-miners-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf
Bob Farrell et al used to like those big bases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGmJMraZO7E
Since 1928 Top Tier Manager Boston Wellington took VGPMX over three years ago, they did well, no guarantee of future results, maybe better. VGPMX is 75 % Deep Discount Global Value and 25 % precious metals and mining.
https://advisors.vanguard.com/iippdf/pdfs/FS53.pdf
US Debt, Derivatives and Unfunded Liabilities exceed a Quadrillion Dollars.
No wonder China is doing a US Leveraged Buyout.
Precious is one asset at century lows in physical form.
Paper/physical 126.14 times gold.
Paper/physical 294.02 times silver.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/#
Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan both thought it unlikely America would return to a gold, silver or even copper standard.
Copper, gold and silver miners can return profits exponentially if prices rise.
They did in the last Great Depression.