AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:193.14)

We’ll give this correction plenty of room, since the steepness of Apple’s melt-up since March has been the equivalent of running three sub-two-hour marathons. The stock is badly in need of rest, so let’s be prepared to exploit it. A moderate decline of arobull trapund $8 would create the first bearish impulse leg we’ve seen on the daily chart since last December.  The low of that move gave way to the current, massive rally, and we might expect the same outcome when this pullback ends, since bulls demolished a key resistance at 189.07 before it began. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 11:53 p.m.): AAPL went sharply the ‘wrong’ way, propelled by yet another deftly engineered gap-up leap on the opening. Assuming the stock can get past a midpoint resistance at 194.24, it is headed for a potentially shortable peak at exactly 196.07 (5-min, A=189.85 on 7/14).  If this happens before noon Wednesday, you can speculate with puts under 0.65 that expire this Friday. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:54 p.m.): Using the same pattern, you can also get long ‘mechanically’ by buying cheap call options (0.60 or less in this context) expiring this Friday or next if AAPL pulls back to the green line (x=193.32). _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:32 p.m.): Subscribers jumped on the mechanical trade suggested above just before AAPL took a psychotic leap from the green line (x=193.32). This caused soon-to-expire 195 calls that I’d suggested buying for 0.40 to leap to an intraday high of 3.85, a nearly 1000% gain, in just 12 minutes. One subscriber who bought 50 of the calls for 0.51 reported selling them minutes later for 3.40, realizing a nearly instantaneous profit of $14,450. I didn’t notice this until later, but the high of AAPL’s nutty, pointless spike could have been predicted within four cents using this gnarly ‘textbook’ pattern. ________ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:03 a.m.): Look for the selloff since Wednesday afternoon’s vicious bull trap to continue, since buyers allowed themselves to get sucker-punched on Thursday as well. They deserve whatever is coming to them.