AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:164.66)

A usually astute correspondent thinks my 176.52 rally projection is unlikely to be realized. We want to get this one right, since, if AAPL fails to achieve ‘D’, it means the bear market that went into hibernation in October is about to resume.  I still think the odds favor the completion of the bullish pattern, but there are two caveats. First, the impulse leg is illegitimate and therefore unreliable, since its ‘B’ high failed to surpass the 157.50 peak recorded just before Halloween; and second, there is daunting resistance just above in the form of a trendline and secondary pivot (p2=168.37) that closely coincide. A bullish offset is that last week’s high at 166.84 exceeded both an internal and an external peak, generating a strong impulse leg of minor degree. In sum, the picture is quite mixed, and determining trend strength will therefore require close attention to price action at corrective Hidden Pivots p and D. Stay tuned!