[The markets will be closed on Monday for President’s Day, but I am putting out fresh touts and commentary because DaBoyz are required to briefly let the beast out of its cage on Sunday evening. Up-to-the-minute updates from Rick’s Picks will resume on the home page and in the trading rooms on Tuesday. RA ]
Technicians use charts to get a precise handle on trends and price reversals. However, even the unschooled eye can sometimes form a tradeable opinion by merely glancing at a chart. Does the one displayed above tell you anything that might be actionable? To my eye, and without resorting to any of the proprietary tricks that are possible with the Hidden Pivot Method, I see the Dow Industrials rolling over due to the presumptive weight of heavy supply. There are many reasons we could adduce for this; however, pondering ‘reasons’ would negate the value and usefulness of technical analysis, which shuns ‘reasons’ as mere noise in order to focus on how an infinitely complex conflation of ‘reasons’ are actually perceived and acted on by traders and investors.
The chart above does not make it possible to infer with confidence that a full-blown bear market is about to unfold. But there is still the visually intuitive sense that: 1) a major rally from these levels is unlikely; and, 2) a large drop is needed to form a base before spectacular new highs could conceivably be achieved. Again, using only the eyes rather than the brain, how far do you think the decline would have to go in order for a base to form? There is no correct answer, but my subjective eye ‘needs’ a selloff into the void between the pink and red lines. Respectively, the levels are a ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot at 31,036 and a Hidden Pivot ‘midpoint’ at 26,762. If the Dow were to fall to the exact middle of that range, it would be at 28,899, a 16% drop from current levels. Drawing on my technical experience, I would say that that’s where the Indoos are headed at a minimum. Hidden Pivot voodoo can sharpen this outlook considerably, so stay tuned.
Let There Be Music!
For whatever reason, I’ve been streaming music at very high volumes lately, sometimes repeating tracks that I especially like 50-100 times. Here are links to two of my very favorites: the incomparable Chucho Valdes, playing one of the the most beautiful piano solos I’ve ever heard, Estás en Mi Corazón; and Mark Ford, who cuts loose in the middle of Gimme Some with a riff that will blow your mind if you’re a blues harp junkie like me.
Hi RA et al.
Longfellow on holiday.
Thanks for calm cool market music sangfroid.
American divorce prompts Mark Ford lyrics:
Got the eyes of a blind man and a heart of stone.
Agree Big4 133 % Short DJIA with DIA PnF Target – 15 % from 344.20 to 293 – 1.87 % Dividend.
Putin putdown of Uncle Joe and Hunter’s politics with military industrial complex unforced woke errors could crush US Aerospace as world buys more Russia Ukraine ag, metal and IT from country where $1.74 Big Macs cheapest in world.
In related news, Canada freezing bank accounts without due process can crush $CAD from 0.789 cents to 0 according to PnF Target. Big4 may be on rare 143 % long wrong side of that trade. Time to tell. Are people ready for a western currency collapse beside the Bolivar and Peso ?
Let’s Go Biden Green energy policy took Crude from T’s – 37.63 to Joe’s 94, record +$132 move causing unprecedented budget, credit card, inflation and trade deficit records delaying the Greatest Deflation.
Don’t play chicken with the KGB PhD in Energy Markets President and the world’s #2 oil producer, by cutting US supply to deficit imports again with anti-economic Green Snot Policies.
We are still long ERY, as Putin dissolves anticipated Ukraine Invasion Energy Hikes by recognizing independence of Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic with treaties on friendship and cooperation between Russia, DPR and LPR.
There is no contrived Russian invasion except American agitprop from academia, monopoly media and CCP/Russian/Ukraine paid off politico’s.
Vlad took 70,000 Russian refugees fleeing Ukranian shelling into Russia. When cometh his Nobel Peace Prize ?
What exactly have UN and US done beyond the usual bloviating deceptive destructive propaganda about COVID and commerce pandemics ?
$VIX long and strong, Big4 186 % Long, PnF Target + 171 % from 26.38 to 71.44.
That oughta make things interesting dialing in the Greatest Deflation.
Mount Etna just closed Med US military air traffic.
NATO Turkey falling apart at the seams.
Europe needs Russian pipeline gas.
LNG tankers just not competitive.
On Washington’s Day, Dan Brown’s Lost Symbol a ten hour distraction on the same Peacock that messed up Olympics and Superbowl with Uncle Joe’s fortnight predilected repetitions of The Russians Are Coming, Part II. No more wag the dog Joe, Billary and Barack, a name along with Hussein and Obama of Arabic Kenyan origin.
All else followed in his third term.
Nobody But Coloreds network still claims Putin stole Crimea warm water port. Actually, Victoria ‘F the EU’ Nuland lost it with by 97 % poll and military stand down after her Euro Maidan Head Technology Colour Revolution killed civilians to remove a democratically elected President. Not since Susan Rice’s A video caused Benghazi, Samantha Powers’ Sports to Foreign Policy Tranceformation and Jen Psaki Trump Treason Testimony, have political tools been so dulled.
Energy Markets PhD KGB President of Russia had something to do and say about his neighboring country too:
Nyet Джо.
Christian Slavic Borderland Ukraine, poorest country in Europe, known by Russians as Bread Basket Mother Country since at least 1547 Russian Tsardom, partly stolen from Poland by Austrian Hitler and Georgian Stalin, who committed the Collectivist Communist Failed Five Year Plans Famine Genocide Great Terror Secret Police Holodomor, stealing bread out of the mouths of Ukranian babes to feed Soviet military, killing 3.5 million using deliberate starvation politics. Add one and a half million Ukrainian Jews killed by Einsatzgruppen Schutstaffel SS in WW II, Western Ukraine working with the Nazis and we have a political quagmire only Putin could solve. And he just did.
The first Uncle Joe exiled Tatars, 46 % of the Crimean population, to Uzbekistan. Then Khrushchev, from Ukraine, gave Crimea from Russia to Ukraine. Putin took it back obligingly and willingly despite Western Media Shriek.
Old Chinese Curse ~ May you live in interesting times.
Get ready, cause here they come…