Plenty of Scary News Signifying…Nothing?

Thinking back over the last 30 years, it’s hard to recall a single instance when traders ultimately lost money diving into stocks on ‘bad’ news. There was a hot mess of it on Friday, when shares plummeted to presumptive bargain levels on reports that Putin is about to invade Ukraine.  That’s bad news indeed, although the talking heads seem as clueless as the rest of us about what it will ultimately mean.  The end of NATO? Possibly. But even then we are left to wonder how  NATO’s demise would change the global balance of power. And is Biden’s further mishandling of this crisis likely to doom his presidency?  There’s no denying that he has ever looked stupider or more incompetent, and that’s saying something.

His first disastrous gaffe was to announce to the world that America’s reaction to an invasion would depend on the scale of it. In other words, if Putin invades only a little bit, the U.S. would stand down militarily. Biden’s handlers had already drummed up some very harsh economic sanctions a couple of weeks ago, but the jury is still out on whether the measures are so extreme that they will cause the collapse of the global banking system. We should have an answer in the fullness of time, but for now it couldn’t hurt to get a vegetable garden started in your back yard as spring approaches. Realize that the myriad shortages we are experiencing these days could seem relatively mild if shock waves from Ukraine prove unexpectedly destructive to worldwide trade.

Where Red and Blue Agree

Biden could have placed the blame for whatever happens in Germany’s lap by simply pointing out that the U.S. has no compelling reason to risk blood and treasure in Ukraine if Germany’s leaders can’t summon the gumption or moral courage to warn off Putin. Instead, Biden’s ‘wait-and-see’ speech maintained his track record for doing the wrong thing 100% of the time.  To extend his losing streak, he is sending Kamala Harris to the Munich Security Conference, where the U.S. president normally speaks. Considering that the Vice-President’s lack of competence and judgment nearly matches that of her boss, this is like sending an attaché to Berlin just before Hitler invaded Belgium. In any event, virtually no one, not even CNN’s most insufferable Biden apologists, could conceive of the President going to Munich and impressing the world in this time of crisis with a display of statesmanship, wisdom and resolve. For in fact, foes on both sides of the red/blue political divide seem uncharacteristically united in fearing that he could only cause us embarrassment or worse.

Ironically, Biden’s mounting failures have stirred up a groundswell of resentment so broad and deep that it has rocked wokeness, cancel culture, the legacy news media and even Hollywood back on their heels. The fact that looney leftists continue to flail away at Dave Chappelle, Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson only strengthens the impression not only that their socialist/fascist banner is going to get torched in November, but that they know it.

  • Ben February 17, 2022, 9:12 pm

    Post an angry response, get posted. Be told to act civil, send a civil response, don’t get posted. Love the smell of inconsistency in the evening!

    Anyway, for the past 24 hours, I’ve been watching the live streams by Inventor Lee Wheelbarger, who apparently streams for KLW News (not MSM affiliated).

    Russia has been scooting up to Ukraine from multiple locations, and even hit a kindergarten building in Ukraine with either mortar or artillery shell, which they of course blamed on Ukraine. Also, Russian paratroopers are in the Prypiat no-go zone for reasons yet ascertained, though some speculate that they’re prepping for nuclear war (which sounds ridiculous to me, but that’s what they’re speculating).

    So, I and everyone else who thought Putin wouldn’t make this a Big thing… we were wrong. That said, I still don’t think he’s going in for a single swoop, but setting up for the long-haul i.e. keeping it smaller, quiet, and sporadic. Easier to fool the western rubes. Anyway, anyone looking for a different take than the usual yawners…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFH9yfxpQO8

    &&&&&&

    Ben, your last post was just one tiresome post too many. The Cyrillic phrases in particular were starting to bore me. Since it’s my bat, my ball and my playing field, I get to be as inconsistent as I please about what runs. I’ll mercifully let this post go because it is not demanding an apology from someone else in the thread. RA

  • Ben February 15, 2022, 9:27 am

    By the way, on Biden’s “gaffe” concerning the size of the invasion…

    Our post-Soviet treaty with Ukraine requires us to intervene ONLY when nuclear weapons are brought to bear against Ukraine. That agreement was made long ago, in order to get Ukraine to surrender its sizeable nuclear arsenal. Not defending Biden, just pointing out that our Ukraine policy has long been “unless it gets serious”.

    Russia has also known that, all along, and so has played accordingly. So have we, as indicated by our ongoing weak responses… including Biden’s “gaffe”, our 3500 “SJW” troops, and our useless sanctions that every President since Obama has maintained (which, again, Russia through Belarus is in the process of attacking Poland in order to get those lifted).

    Frankly, we’re better off with that agreement, weak as it makes us look. Who wants full-on war with Russia? Even Russia doesn’t want one. If they did, they would bring their nuclear weapons to bear against Ukraine and get the party started.

    I’m going back to sleep (well, not really, but I won’t worry another moment about this farce).

  • Larry D February 14, 2022, 1:38 pm

    Speaking of ranting in an old folks home – there’s our Aricept-addled POTUS who thinks inflation is an asset…

  • Rich February 14, 2022, 1:34 pm

    Hi Rick et al.

    Speaking of Retired Colonels and the markets:

    British Prime Minister Chamberlin in 1938 declared Peace for our time with Honor.
    After he ceded Czechoslovakia to Hitler in Munich.
    He compounded realpolitik naivete with,
    In spite of the harshness and ruthlessness I thought I saw in his face, I got the impression that here was a man who could be relied upon when he had given his Word.
    Hitler then invaded Poland and France before failing in Russia, one sixth of global real estate, 11 time zones.

    Lord Mountbatten, who lost two destroyers under his command and introduced Elizabeth at 13 to Phillip, was a Hessian Battenberg before they became Mountbattens.

    The House of Windsor renamed the House of Saxe-Coburg, Gotha and Hanover during WW I.

    King Edward VIII told Hitler there was a unique desire to bring Britain and Germany together.
    He told many Hitler was not such a bad Chap.
    Wallis and he were rescued from Paris and exiled to the Bahamas.

    Prince Phillip said his family found Hitler’s plans to bring Germany to the helm of European power, Attractive.
    Like FDR, he admitted Inhibitions about the Jews.

    Genius peddles the trope that an American Ambassador to Berlin under orders from J Edgar Hoover rescued 50,000 Jews from Germany, including Einstein.

    In fact, under orders from FDR and JEH, US denied 75 % of Visa applications from German Jews.

    Romanov extended royal family ruled most of Europe before railroaded, imprisoned and assassinated by the Bolsheviks.

    Markets and politics make strange bedfellows.

    Ds apparently still under sway of Mika Brzezinsky father Zbigniew Grand Chessboard strategy to encircle Russia with NATO.

    NATO Secretary General Jens Soltenberg left, tired of herding 30 cats, after he realized Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine have other interests and priorities than Western democracy.

    3500 American PC SJW vaxxed troops unlikely to stare down 100,000 hardened Russian combat veterans.

    Russia drove Isis out of Syria and armed Turkey with S400 missiles.

    Uncle Joe admin told everyone President Putin would invade Ukraine during Superbowl Halftime show.

    When that failed to materialize, air began to hiss out of the bloated energy hot air balloon.

    Thus we hold ERY short term.

    • Rick Ackerman February 14, 2022, 5:07 pm

      A fascinating look back, Richard, thanks. Even the most dedicated, demented revisionists never quite succeed at eradicating the truth. There are unfortunately more than a few Brits today who feel that Hitler was doing the Lord’s work.

    • Ben February 14, 2022, 10:16 pm

      Rich, Rich, Rich…

      “strategy to encircle Russia with NATO.”

      Ninja, PLEASE!

      The Russian emperors of the bygone era have long since seen to it that such a thing will never happen. But even if it somehow could happen, being surrounded by NATO hasn’t bothered Switzerland, Austria or Sweden. No, it only bothers Putins that attack Poland’s border via Belarus, for reasons too obscure for anyone to fathom. So let’s just never mention THAT again and instead…

      Видишь кобру
      Доверься кобре
      Пусть кобра
      Забудь о кобре
      Какая кобра? (хихикает)

      “3500 American PC SJW vaxxed troops”

      Any one of them could easily kick your back door into the next century, though. Just sayin’.

      “Russia drove Isis out of Syria and armed Turkey with S400 missiles.”

      Yeah, yeah, yeah…. Russia’s “god” and The Innocent Good Guy In All This.

      Верьте кобре

      But arming Turkey — last beast of Daniel and Revelation — with anything (even a paper clip) is a good thing because… Why? Bad enough that no one will kick Turkey out of NATO, but getting help from Russia isn’t going to make Erds a harmless kitten, any more than giving Czechoslovakia to his German look-alike did.

      So, you know… good luck convincing me to приветствую кобру because he gave the last antichrist some neat toys to play with!

      Anyway, I just wanted to say, originally… Do not trust ANYONE other than He in whom all authority is currently vested, by the Father. Like I said, we’re overjoyed to keep Turkey in NATO, just as Putin is glad to kiss Erd’s ass. It’s all going as the Prophets said it would. None make war on the magnificent beast and everyone wants to be its friend. What we’re seeing now is just the required prelude to the beast’s rise to its full height — what allows it to rise — after which God strikes it down.

      That’s good news.

      • Rich February 16, 2022, 10:49 am

        Cobra Kai Kid:
        And here we all along thought Russia was a bear…
        Identification with aggressor a temporary respite.
        America has significant house cleaning before any more failed foreign adventures.
        Meantime, supply and demand still rule.

      • Ben February 16, 2022, 4:34 pm

        Just hold your transgender pantyhose there, miss Rich…

        I’m torn between treating you respectfully and ripping you apart, as you so richly deserve, for your tired and vapid “adventurism” card, but mostly, by far, for your ludicrous “SJW” prefix to our 3,500 troops. I choose the former — for now, and only as far as I can stomach pretending that you deserve it — because we’ve treated each other amiably and respectfully, in the passed (you are Rich Cash, yes?).

        “Adventurism” will have to wait for another time and place (you’re dead wrong about it, though). Right now, you will retract the “SJW” prefix.

        Those 3,500 men have gone into a dangerous place and situation, knowing, as far as they may, that they might be stormed by overwhelming numbers at any moment. Not a one has complained or abandoned his fellows and his country. Nor will any of them. Come what may, dead or alive, they’ll come out of there with honor and make their families proud of them.

        Where I come from, that is called bravery… which people like Snowden, Bergdahl (who should have hanged from a rope), Jones and a slew of other anti-American “truth!” clowns could never know the meaning of. And YOU….

        Where are YOU, purdy little mouth?
        I don’t care, I just know where you’re NOT.
        And what have YOU done, little cobra vacuum?
        I neither know nor care, just what you have never done in your entire life.

        That’s about as respectful as you deserve, at least until you issue your due retraction and apology. I suggest you phrase it thus…

        “My apologies. None of the U.S.’s brave military men and women are little bitches like me. I’m also the little pussy bitch who must now admit that she was wrong ONLY because she got caught. I only said that about them because I just hate the current POTUS. If Trump was in charge, I would pretend to be behind you guys, 100%, spewing Putin’s jizz and calling you brainwashed MIC-zombies! Please don’t beat me up, scary real men! Oh, has anyone seen my tampons?! I need a tampon because I’m having heavy flow again!!! WHY DOESN’T THE GOVERNMENT PAY FOR MY F__ING TAMPONS?!?!?!”

        That’ll at least somewhat restore your honor and dignity. I mean, it’s ugly truth but truth nonetheless. Gotta respect it for what it is. Anyway…

        Мяч на твоей стороне, дорогая. Но прежде чем ты убежишь, погладь своего папочку с глазами кобры еще немного.

      • Rick Ackerman February 16, 2022, 8:08 pm

        Too bad I told “Harry” to jump up my ass earlier in this thread, or I’d demand more civility of you two. Что с русским?

  • harry hv February 13, 2022, 6:01 pm

    Mistaken assumption: because you’re really really good at one thing, you’re also expert at everything else. The truth is, no matter how good you may be at trading, your political rants sound like a retired colonel with alzheimers in an old folks home.

    &&&&&&&

    Hey, Harry: Why don’t you jump up my ass. /em> RA

    • GMRUNNER February 16, 2022, 9:57 pm

      I joined Rick’s Picks a few days ago to gain insight into the markets and option directions. This uncivil exchange is most disheartening.

      &&&&&

      Stick around, GMR. I’m sure you can handle it. This thread is singularly atypical, and you will find the chat rooms to be among the most civil and helpful in the trading world. RA

      • GMRUNNER February 17, 2022, 11:14 am

        I can handle it.

        Atta boy! I knew you could tough it out. Whadya think of that ES trade floated in the chat room? RA

      • GMRUNNER February 18, 2022, 2:27 pm

        I have a buying an April 4200 S&P E Mini PUT and selling an April 4000 S&P E mini Put spread set up by my broker and your guidance is helping to inform and to steady me. Riding this trade might more than pay for a subscription.