TYX.X – 30-Year T-Bond Rate (Last:1.63%)

I’d projected a plunge in 30-Year rates to 1.58% a while back, but it now looks like they could fall as low as 0.73%. The earlier forecast was intended to match a still unachieved 186^04 rally target for T-Bond futures, whose price correlates inversely with yields. They are currently trading for around 172^10, leaving plenty of room to rally. If so, yields on the long bond, which hit the 1.58 target today, are bound much lower. A 0.73% rate would be congruent with a deep economic recession, so it’s possible the stock market and the economy have topped.  On the 10-Year Note, the corresponding yield would be negative. I regard this as very unlikely, notwithstanding the fact that there is $13 trillion of sovereign debt priced to yield less than zero. My guess is that the 10-Year will fall not to the D target of the pattern shown in this chart, but to the secondary pivot at 0.30%. For now, we’ll use this number, a Hidden Pivot support, as a downside objective.

  • Richard Charles March 14, 2020, 6:30 pm

    EDV Target + 104 %
    From 149.25 to 305
    + 2.12 % Zero Coupon Treasury Yield