Get AAPL right and your big-picture forecast for the stock market will never go far wrong. Apple is the World’s Most Valuable Company, after all, and therefore a must-own for every portfolio manager who wants to keep his or her job. That’s why it’s the only stock we need follow in order to know exactly what’s on institutional investors’ tiny, fevered minds. So how have our AAPL predictions fared? On Wednesday the stock plummeted yet again, bottoming just six cents from the 185.87 target hung out here two nights earlier when the stock was $12 higher. It turns out that I made a slight error when I drew the target pattern, and that the correct coordinates would have nailed the actual 185.93 low to-the-penny.

Okay, so you’re probably wondering what’s coming next. A fair question. First of all, there is still room for a major bounce from slightly lower — from 185.12, to be exact. This Hidden Pivot support differs from the one at 185.93 because it is based on highs and lows that occurred during the night session. If the support fails, it would increase the odds that the bull market begun in 2009 is over. What would constitute a failure? Considering the delicate precision of the pattern used to calculate the target, an overshoot of more than $1.00 (or so), or a two-day close beneath 185.12, would probably prove fatal.  That’s why we’ll be watching closely to see whether the so-far feeble rally from the initial target gets legs. If it exceeds 197.18 without going significantly lower first, bulls could breathe a mild sigh of relief._______ UPDATE (Nov 19, 9:31 a.m. ET): AAPL is getting whacked ahead of the opening bell because of a reported slowdown in iPhone sales. As the stock continues to fall, keep in mind what I wrote here earlier: The company makes nearly all of its money selling very pricey hardware. As such, Apple shares are particularly vulnerable to an economic downturn.