AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:223.12)

AAPL’s latest wilding spree has $10 farther to go before it hits something solid in the form of the 226.26 target shown.  That’s a Hidden Pivot resistance, and it is sufficiently clear and compelling that we might expect a tradable pullback from within perhaps 0.10 – 0.20 points of it. Trading the upside using options will always be difficult, since market makers have a canny way of pricing puts and calls so that selling time premium yields at least somewhat better odds than owning it. In this case I’ll suggest leveraging an edge of our own — i.e., ‘foreknowledge’ of where, exactly, the rally is most likely to reverse — and buying put options if and when the stock gets within 0.15 of the target (i.e., hits 226.11). Use the 220 strike with options that expire in 5-12 days. _______ UPDATE (August 30, 3:42 p.m.): Subscribers reported buying Sep 7 220 puts when AAPL hit my target, so I’ll track four @0.60.  Some bought them for as little as 0.50, but I customarily use the worst fill reported — in this case 0.61 — for a cost basis.  For now, offer two of the puts to close for 1.20, good-till-canceled. Those of you who paid 0.50 could have doubled out on half, since the options subsequently traded as high as 1.04._______ UPDATE (August 31, 6:35 p.m.): Stop yourself out of the puts if they trade for 0.30. They got as low as 0.35 on Friday before finishing slightly higher. Regardless, my gut feeling is that the stock will top somewhere in this vicinity.________ UPDATE (Sep 4, 10:17 p.m.): AAPL traded above the 226.26 target, stopping out the puts, but the $3 overshoot was not sufficient for us to infer that the stock is ready to blast off for outer space. For now, we’ll use the 240.05 target shown in this chart________UPDATE (Sep 6, 1:15 p.m.): Sellers have punished the stock since it topped a few days ago $3 above my 226.26 target. Click here for a fresh chart. Let’s see if the downtrend gets legs ahead of the weekend.