Because mid-May’s multiyear high at 3.11% precisely matched a target I’d sent out to subscribers five months earlier when rates were around 2.35%, I was open to the possibility that yields had made a major top.  This seemed even more likely when the Ten-Year Note plunged to 2.76% over the next 12 days. Now, however, a strong recovery rally has shortened the odds of a move to new highs.  is a  If it is coming, it would generate headwinds above 3.25% sufficient to slow the U.S. economy or even suffocate it, since rates for mortgages and car leases would rise as well. At the very least, based on the chart shown, Ten-Year Note yields look very likely to challenge the May high, since the target is actually 0.04 points above it. The rally could turn out to be a bull trap, either by forming a double top or, less likely, an upthrust to new heights that reverses precipitously. A third possibility is that, once above May’s highs, rates will continue to rise. Whatever the case, I will be monitoring this vehicle closely, since a move into the 3.25%-3.50% range would significantly reduce the flow of oxygen to the U.S. economy’s heart and lungs — i.e., housing and autos. ______ UPDATE (June 14, 9:14 p.m. EDT): Check out the $TYX.X tout above, since it recalibrates my thinking about where long-term rates may be headed. ______ UPDATE (June 17, 5:10 p.m.): Rates on the Ten-Year now look primed for a fall to at least 2.831, a compelling midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart.  However, if the support is breached decisively (i.e. 28.00 or lower), look for yields to fall to as low as 2.653 over the near term. _______ UPDATE (July 15): Rates on the Ten-Year have been flirting with the 2.831 support for nearly three weeks, trading as low as 2.811. The breach is sufficient that I expect rates to move sideways-to-lower this summer, and for the price of T-Notes to rise. ______ UPDATE (July 25, 8:41 p.m.): Rates on the Ten-Year Note have more than merely hung tough over the last few months, they now appear bound for new highs. The nearest unfulfilled Hidden Pivot target lies at 3.157%, and it will become no worse than an even-odds bet to be reached if and when $TNX closes for two consecutive days above the 2.958% midpoint resistance. Here’s the chart.