DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:89.15)

The  Dollar Index is closing fast on an 88.29 downside target that was first signaled back in November. I drum-rolled this ‘Hidden Pivot support’ a week ago at FXStreet.com because the site’s many followers are undoubtedly eager for a USD forecast that is clear, confident and precise.  In this case the target is especially important, since the bearish pattern that produced it is such a textbook beauty.  What this means is that we will be able to accurately assess the dollar’s health based on the way DXY interacts with 88.29. If it should close below that number for two consecutive days, or trade more than 0.20 points beneath it intraday, that would suggest the dollar’s long decline still has a ways to go — perhaps a considerable ways. How considerable? My new target following a decisive breach of 88.29 would be 82.34 — a 7.7% fall from current levels. Keep these numbers well in mind, and plan accordingly. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 5:17 p.m.): Coy as ever, DXY bounced sharply from a low at 88.44, just 0.15 points from our target, after plummeting earlier in the day. The rally would need to hit 91.01 to imply that a major turnaround had begun. Until that happens, we’ll be alert to a possible relapse to the still-viable target at 88.29. Its crucial importance to the intermediate-to-long-term technical picture remains as described above. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 5:57 p.m.): The Dollar Index has been thrashing about since bottoming a week ago just 0.15 points from a longstanding target I’d flagged at 88.29.  The chop looks like base-building, but if it proves otherwise and DXY closes for two consecutive weekly bars below 88.29, I’d infer it was on its way down to at least 87.40 over the near-term, or possibly even to the 82.34 target noted above. An additional downside target not mentioned before is 84.82.