Predictably, GM’s huge recall problem has elicited a gusher of humanitarian concern from the tort bar. It would be fitting justice if they wind up owning the company, or perhaps the carcass that’s left after they’ve pursued claims for economic damages (including declines in resale values), injuries and deaths. These are the same major-league entrepreneurial litigators guys who took took down Toyota and the tobacco companies, so there’s cause for concern over whether GM will even survive. Are there any hints of mortality in the resurrected GM’s stock charts? Looking at the weekly bars (see inset), there’s a good case that GM shares are in a topping pattern that began nearly a year ago. I don’t put much store in head-and-shoulder tops because they are everywhere a chartist might want to find them, but in this case there’s a graceful symmetry to the pattern that’s difficult to ignore.
From the standpoint of Hidden Pivot analysis, bulls and bears are in a duel that would tip in favor of the former were the stock to rally above early March’s 38.05 peak. That’s just $2 above the recent highs, and therefore easily plausible. This would seem to suggest that investors have not yet thrown in the towel. Perhaps their tune will change once the lawsuits get rolling. As of now, however, the jury is not only not out, it has not yet been selected. In the meantime, I’d set a screen alert at 31.12, since a print down at that price would generate a bearish impulse leg on the weekly chart, telegraphing a likely death spiral.