Over Decades, This ‘Investable’ Trounced S&P

[Gary Leibowitz, a regular in the Rick’s Picks forum, has a knack for attracting hostile fire.  An unrelenting optimist in a bear’s lair, he is a guy who consistently raises everyone else’s hackles. In the guest commentary below, however, he digresses on a topic that all of us can take pleasure in – not just for its own sake, but as an investmentRA]

Can you guess what investment has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 300% over the last 30 years?  This asset has risen steeply in value when stocks were in a bull market, but it has fallen only half as steeply during bear markets. When I first stumbled on it about 25 years ago, I didn’t even consider it as an investment. Instead, I treated it like a hobby, one that I still enjoy. This particular investable requires only that one diversify into five sub-classes, and that one store it in a safe environment.  In the end, you will be able to either sell it in a fairly liquid market, or you can simply pee it away as you enjoy it.

If I have confused you, it was intentional.  My mention of five investment categories may have helped you guess what I was talking about. Here they are: Chateau Margaux, Chateau Lafite Rothschild, Chateau Mouton Rothschild, Chateau Haut Brion, and Chateau Latour. To invest in these Bordeaux you need not be an expert, or even have a trained nose. All that is required is that you store the bottles in a somewhat humid environment at around 55 degrees.  If you have a proper place at home that fits the bill, great. But you can also buy an inexpensive wine cooler to keep the temperature constant.  As for being savvy about each year’s grape harvest, in most case this will not even be necessary, for only very seldom did vintages fail to keep up with other investments like the S&P 500.  If you want to pick and choose your wines for maximum potential return, subscribe to a wine newsletter or magazine such as the wine Advocate or Spectator.  Robert Parker is the one man who can make or break a wine’s reputation, and so his advice should be used first.

‘Never Fall in Love’

The only downside is the risk of falling in love with your investment. As the old investment saying goes, never fall in love — be calculating and prudent.   Now there’s the rub.  Some 25 years ago, I frequented a wine store as a complete neophyte for the sole purpose of purchasing a bottle for my BYOB dinner reservation.  I was in midtown and the shop I visited displayed all five first-growth wines, price at around $55 each.  I’d always been considered a very impatient person, and on an impulse I purchased these five bottles, plus a white burgundy for the evening’s affair.  I didn’t actually think this through, since I later realized that I’d have to hold onto them for a decade or more to get the full flavor and experience.  I must confess that my biggest weakness has been, and will always be, food.  I only became interested in wine after this impulsive purchase.  I never considered bottles of wine as an investment. I had simply wanted to see what all the fuss was about in pairing great wines with food,  and I knew these were the grand “almost-anything-goes-with-it” wines.  I also fantasized about going to a restaurant like 11 Madison and finding the right food to complement a 15-year-old bottle.  Well, I did tell you I was a weak man when it comes to patience.  To my surprise, I held onto these bottles for a decade before starting to open them up.  In that decade of waiting I discovered the world of wine and my own tastes.   I must confess that the ability to smell and taste the subtlest nuances of various wines is not my gift.  Without becoming a connoisseur, all I knew was what I liked (or didn’t).  As for the five “starter” bottles, I do recall each one and what I ate.  One of them, the last, turned out to be a disaster.  I waited too long to drink it.  It was a Latour. The cork had been ruined and a vinegar taste lingered in my mouth.

In conclusion, this is one investment you do not want to fall in love with, for if you do, all of your potential profits will be washed away in a moment.

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  • Chris T. September 10, 2012, 7:26 pm

    ter:

    “less than noble vinifera”.
    I would not agree with that categorization as such.
    Traminer and Gewuerztraminer are sometimes used interchangeably, so it’s hard to know which one is actually set.

    Silvaner, OTH, can be grown for yield, not quality, but when the latter is the goal, can produce some very fine wines.
    A bad connotation is prob. still lingering from the overproduction days decades ago, both in Alsace and Germany.

    The grape was recently added to the permitted Alsace Grand Cru varietal list (small scale only).
    In Franconia, there are many first rate growers that produce high quality from it.

    So, not quite as blanket as all that.
    In this specific instance, and given the high degree of ripeness usually permitted, the result is usually pretty good (did a multi-year tasting there quite some time ago….).

    On the Gewuerztraminer pairing:
    Alsatian food is many things, but spicy, in the Indiain/Thai/latin sense it is not, yet it is one of the high-class staples there. Thus it works well with other types too.

    Hearty food as well, if you think of a choucroute platter.
    (seeing as it’s lunch time, I better not).
    And great dessert-wines of course too.

  • ter September 7, 2012, 6:39 pm

    Enjoyed the diversion of a wine discussion. My understanding is traminer and sylvaner grapes are less than noble vinifera, usually consigned to carafes as “house wine” at modest prices. Ordinarily, they produce substantial quantities of white wine ordinaire. The very limited production of the Rhodt vineyards might be noticeably superior because concentrated. From a good harvest, they’d be well worth sampling, if you drank them there when they were fresh. Gewurztraminer, however, is a distinguished Alsatian wine, that travels well. Not for all palates, it’s often recommended as a companion for spicy food that would overwhelm most wines.

  • Chris T. September 6, 2012, 4:45 pm

    Bam Man:

    it’s a classic, but really sad.
    Sort of like someone making a movie and using a real Ferrari 250 GT or Mercedes SSK in a chase scene and then smashing it up. What a waste!

    The sommelier thought the guy did it just to piss him off, and he is a really nice mellow fellow from Normandie, but it worked…

  • Chris T. September 6, 2012, 4:39 pm

    Gary:

    the wine made from those ancient grapes in Rhodt (by the way the “Rosengarten” is a tiny “wingert”, the local equivalent of the Burgundian “clos”) are low yielders, so that in total, only about 150-300l can be produced per year.
    A total boutique wine at that.
    I did get to try the 2003 heat-wave production, which was excellent (the Rieslings did not do well, but the Pinot Gris and Traminers did).

    I had an awe inspiring local-to-there 2003 Pinot Gris “Auslese” (the French equiv. is “”vendange tardive”).
    Rather than, as is usual in that area, leaving much residual sugar, they took it as far as it went in fermentation, and then (lightly thankfully) barrique oaked it.
    The 16.1% alc. wasn’t even obvious, so well integrated into the matrix….
    Wish I had laid up cases of that one (sure would have been a keeper, 10-15y)– when I went back there, the sommelier I mentioned above had just visited the week prior and bought the whole remaining stock for his resto…

  • gary leibowitz September 6, 2012, 12:31 am

    Just human beings being human.

    Unless of course we mastered the workings of the brain and developed true artifical inteligence.

    Simply greed and abuse of power. No master plan. Logic would dictate that a person in a position to actually control others usually believe others are not to be trusted. Paranoia usually prevails and nothing gets done.

    You give us humans too much credit. Now had circumstances arise where a dictator is welcome, than you are talking business. To expect a democracy to revert back to dictatorship requires a whole lot of external circumstances to dall into place. Not very likely.

  • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 10:17 pm

    With all the doom I hear in this blog not ONE ever came to being. Not One! From the ocean rift caused by the off shore oil spill disaster to government tanks rolling down main street USA to control riots from pandemics, chemical warfare, and political coup.

    With all the time spent worrying about such world shattering cataclysmic disasters life is passing you by. Imagine all the wasted effort all these years. The ironic part is that if any of these events do occur you will be at the mercy of fate just like the uninformed.

    So lets see, we have found that the possibility of a planet killer asteriod hitting our planet is much higher than previously thought. One being tracked today has a 1 in 65 chance of hitting earth in 2040. Climate change is dramatic this past decade, based on geologic time. Food and water shortages are inevitable based on population growth. Nuclear accidents and war have gone up exponentially this past 20 years. Pandemic by nature or scientic manipulation statistically speaking could hit us and wipe out a large portion of the worlds population. A gun packing looney could blow your head off while you cross the street. Corporate controlled and gene manipulated livestock and plants will trigger a harmful mutation in humans.

    Man, I am depressed just writing this junk. The only people that can possibly live thru any of these events are the ones that picked the right event to begin with and had the means to prepare. Most likely the preperation would take up most of yout time and rob you of life’s offerings. even if you survive one of these events how pahhy will you be after?

    No, I say, take me quick and fast. Thats my only worry, a slow tortuous death.

  • j September 5, 2012, 10:07 pm

    Wow! not my guess…wine, hmmm…I would have thought Silver would be the winner as since 93 at todays price its up 800% and when it hit $49.82/2011 it was up 1300%

    CHEER$!…..do love my Italian Brunello while watching a Tuscan sunset

  • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 9:27 pm

    http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/articles/2012/federal-law-enforcement-agencies-buy-ammunition.aspx

    Even the NRA understands the nonsense hysteria this has created. Yes nonsense.

  • ken horn September 5, 2012, 9:01 pm

    Here I was enjoying my 1995 Ripple (rouge) and now I have to get out of the country pursued by a bunch of brown-shirts with 1,000,000,000 bullets. So much for my planned, lazy afternoon on the hammock.

    • Chris T. September 6, 2012, 5:24 pm

      One wonders why any executive order is needed;

      the ex.order as a construct supposedly having force-of-law effect is unonstitutional itself, as of course are all things derived from it.
      So, they should just go and do what they want to do, without giving it the veneer of legitimacy.

      yet they do, why?
      Because they still feel the need to pretend they have legitimacy?

      BTW, though all here hopefully know this:
      the ex. order has a simple funtion;
      to instruct the agencies how to act WITHIN their legitimate scope of authority.

      For ex. if Obama were truly interested in a decriminalized (not legalized) hemp/marijuana, he can instruct the Dept. of Injustice not to pursue, either by investigating or prosecuting, small scale possession.
      That is legitimate, because it only regulates the conduct of the executive branch.

      But when that conduct itself is unconstitutional (seizing something from people not subject to the Presidents executive fiat, ie the citizen), the order has no legitimacy.

      EVEN IF the Supreme Court has declared otherwise, for ex. with FDR’s gold “confiscation” ex.order…

  • Robert September 5, 2012, 7:15 pm

    I have 3 bottles of 1994 Margaux- identical to the one in the picture. I purchased them from the cellar in a small local grocery store in early 1999 during a business trip to Toulouse… I paid 15 bucks a piece for them.

    If I had known they’d be a 20 bagger someday, I would have bought a truck full.

  • Chris T. September 5, 2012, 5:16 pm

    Nice comment.

    “All that is required is that you store the bottles …”

    And these days, a good relationship with a connected retailer, to be allocated a case here or there when first sold. Not as simple as it used to be.

    In addition a full 12-count case is best, much easier than partials or individual bottles.

    Staying in the same region, I would add Petrus and d’Yquem to the 5 GC-Medocs, perhaps also Cheval Blanc and Ausone…

    Good thing about this stuff as an investment is that the supply is constrained, and the interested, but NOUVEAU RICHE buyers market is not shrinking.

    Sad about all this is, that unlike Gary, there are a large number of buyers of these products, that buy them only for status, not caring to or being able to appreciate them for their own sake or the high-production values they represent (terroir, vinyard care, vinification care, etc). They make it impossible for a less well situated connosseur(sp?) to appreciate.

    A sommelier I know was once asked by a Chinese investor to bring some cocoa powder. When brought, he proceeded to stir it into his DRC Vosne-Romanee GC (forget which one), gulp it down, and then giving the sommelier a challenging look. Too bad for that great wine.

    So Gary, do you think I should hold onto my sole d”Yquem (1967 and low neck!) or go for its intrinsic value? 🙂

    A tip:

    If your are ever in eastern France / south-wetern Germany (Alsace, Pfalz) you may want to visit Rhodt.
    The “Rhodter Rosengarten” there is the oldest still-bearing vinyard in the world (meaning the vines). They were planted in the last decades of the 15th and early 16th century. By the time phylloxera come around they were already 250 years old, so that mineralization had made the roots so hard(ened), that the bug couldn’t get in there. Mixed growth, mainly Traminer and Sylvaner.
    here is a link, google-translation will prob. help with that:
    http://www.deutscheweine.de/icc/Internet-DE/nav/aa1/aa160895-ac43-6821-8a71-dbb604c41ed8&_ic_uCon=f4a6a703-e168-218a-71db-b604c41ed8b2

    • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 6:39 pm

      I don’t buy dessert wines. I stick to glasses of port or sweet chardonnay’s. If you only own one bottle of the 1967 d’yquem I would hold it till eternity. It gets a perfect score by some people. I myself have never tried many of the expensive dessert wines. Not my taste.

      My knowledge and experiences with wine are still very limiting. I usually stick with regions and varieties that fit my tastes. I am not familiar with the Alsac region since I don’t usually like the spicy whites. The bubbly wines like the cremants are fine, but once again not my favorites.

      Rhodt, have you tasted these wines? Not being susceptable to certain disease and bug infestation is always a plus. Like I stated before, I am not a true connoisseur on all wines. In fact I stick to a very limiting variety. White Burgandies, French Champagne, California reds and sparkling. French reds mainly in the medoc region.

    • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 6:51 pm

      Let me amend my statement about Alsace region. I do like Pinot Gris. I also like the Pinot Noir and Pinot Gris in Oregon and Washington.

    • Bam_Man September 5, 2012, 6:54 pm

      Hey Gary-
      If you haven’t given Italian reds a try, I suggest you do. Since you like Medocs, you may be interested to know that there are many estates in Tuscany producing phenomenal wines using the Bordeaux varietals (sometimes with a little Sangiovese mixed in, but not always) at very reasonable prices. Many of these wines routinely receive scores of 91-94 points from Wine Spectator and can be had for under $30. A good example would be the 2009 Frescobaldi Tenuta di Castiglioni Toscana. A fantastic wine made from mostly Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc and Merlot, with just a splash of Sangiovese thrown in. It can be easily found for under $20 and WS scored it at 90 points.

      It wasn’t until about three or four years ago that I got interested in Italian wine and now it makes up more than 50% of my cellar!

    • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 7:23 pm

      Bam, I am not thinking too clearly when I wrote this. I do love italian reds. Tuscan and Umbria area in particular. Montepulciano and Sangiovese wines are among my favorite inexpensive varieties.

      I guess I do like more varieties than I originally thought of. Some spanish wines like Rioja I also enjoy.

    • Bam_Man September 5, 2012, 9:19 pm

      Ha Ha Ha! Chris, the story about the Chinese guy putting cocoa powder in a Vosne-Romanee is a classic! I suppose if he’d tried that with a jug of Carlo Rossi Burgundy, it might actually have been a good idea. “Oooooh, those “tannins” are now so fine and powdery!”

  • ken horn September 5, 2012, 5:14 pm

    I’ll stick with Ripple, Tiger Rose & the Gallo Bros. (but I make sure I’m getting only top-notch years)

  • Bam_Man September 5, 2012, 4:53 pm

    Congratulations to you Gary for having the good sense ( and a bit of good luck) to invest in those first-growth Bordeaux before their prices had taken off for the stratosphere. At around $55 each (or even twice or three times that amount) they were certainly worth investing in. The worst thing that could happen would be if you had to eventually drink them yourself!

    But I’m afraid that at today’s prices (around $1,500/bottle) the investment case for these is at best pretty weak. “Bubble” is the word that comes immediately to mind. You know things have gotten out of hand when the Chinese are counterfeiting labels and sticking them on bottles of cheap plonk.

    I’ve got a reasonable sized cellar at home (around 1,200 bottles) but don’t own any first-growth Bordeaux. Only a handful of second-growths – but lots of very high quality stuff in the $50-$100/bottle range. You’d be surprised at the quality available today at those prices. Personally, I just can’t rationalize spending $1,500 on a bottle of wine – even if I call it “an investment”.

    • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 5:04 pm

      That is a big price tag for a consumable. The economic reality today is that the top tier earners are doing very well as is the high end retailers. If this trend continues so should the value of elitest products, such as wine. I think fine art has a spottier record, since the “tastes” trends change over the decades. There is no current substitute for great wine. Granted the competition is becoming much more competitive with the science of growing wine developing high quality at low costs.

      I myself do not buy wine at these prices. I only present this as an alternative investment vehicle.

  • gary leibowitz September 5, 2012, 3:32 pm

    Rick, thank you for editing and rephrasing my sloppily written article.

    As for why the market seems to defy gravity the latest report on productivity for the second quarter is in. The headlines read: “Second-Quarter Productivity Posts Big Gain, Wage Inflation Muted.” It’s all about profits. Companies have gotten their act together at the detriment of the worker. Still no definitive sign that we will breakout or not. The market’s indecisive moves is like waiting for Godot. Perhaps we will be in a perpetual stalling pattern never going anwhere. Just my impatience getting the better of me.