Bernanke a Hero to Gold and Silver Bulls

Interesting times, for sure – and by no means accursed for those with the wisdom to have bought silver or gold before yesterday. Both took flight on word that Helicopter Ben has promised to do whatever it takes to bring U.S. unemployment down to more reasonable levels. If Americans knew what it will ultimately cost them to have the Fed target unemployment rather than the money supply, they’d be having second thoughts about this latest phase of Bernanke’s bold experiment.  Because trillions of dollars worth of stimulus have failed thus far to keep unemployment merely from rising, we can scarcely imagine how many trillions more it might take to actually push unemployment down.

But for now, at least, because Bernanke has deigned to re-imagine QE3 with no limits, investors can be fearless about exposure to bullion. Too bad it took the ECB’s Draghi to show him the way. Recall that Draghi one-upped his colleagues a while back with a pledge to hold Spain’s borrowing costs down come hell or high water. We’re not sure which is more ambitious: ensuring the steady flow of cheap credit to Spain, with its 25% unemployment and a middle-class scramble to move savings out of the country; or creating jobs in the U.S., where restoring the illusion of prosperity will be possible only if home values can be goosed into another parabola.

Damn the Torpedoes

Whatever happens, some Rick’s Picks subscribers were in great spirits following Bernanke’s damn-the-torpedoes foray into uncharted waters.  “I was long [the gold miner’s ETF] last night, and this was the biggest single trade of my life,” noted one chat-room denizen.  “It was just plain unbelievable!”  Another spoke for those who have patiently waited for gold and silver mining stocks to spring to life:  “Today’s action has helped me recoup a nice portion of what my portfolio dropped this year,” he noted in a late-afternoon post.  “I must confess that I held onto most of my precious metal and copper holdings during the long drop. That’s the price one pays for adopting a buy-and-hold strategy.” Indeed.

Both of these guys had acted on their own initiative, but there were pleasant and presumably rewarding tasks to occupy other subscribers who mechanically follow the trading “touts” published  each day in Rick’s Picks.  Specifically, subscribers were advised to short December 45 calls in Silver Wheaton for 0.78 against December 40 calls purchased earlier for the same price when the stock was trading significantly lower.  Legging into a “vertical bull spread” in this way has effectively locked in a position that will produce a profit of $4,000 (on eight spreads) if Silver Wheaton shares, currently trading for $38.38, are at or above $45 come December expiration.  And because the cost of the spread was zero, there is no possibility of a loss even if the stock falls by 99%.  Want to get in on the action?  Click here for a free trial subscription that includes not only access to two 24/7 chat rooms that draw veteran traders from around the world, but also real-time trading alerts via e-mail.

  • mava September 16, 2012, 7:42 pm

    Why are we keep pretending that the FED’s mandate is an unemployment care or the price stability, while, it is clear that the FED’s mandate is an endless money for the government? Is this pretense really conductive for the forecasting of the economic matters?

  • John Jay September 15, 2012, 5:46 pm

    Is Hillary the perfect poster child for our clumsy, brutal, inept foreign policy?
    MENA is in flames, and it is spreading to all Muslim lands.
    And that goofy you tube clip was just the match in the powder room.
    This could be the best and brightest CIA triumph of all !
    “US scrambles to rush spies, drones to Libya.”
    Spies, drones, and Hillary.
    That will calm them down alright!
    How hard are Putin and the Chinese laughing right now?
    Stay tuned!

  • L fry September 15, 2012, 6:40 am

    VLA , you may be correct, I read today that BIG money IS heading for the exits as in OUT. Bull trap it is. If it is not in your hands , it is not yours !

    • steve September 16, 2012, 5:40 am

      bull trap? are joking…… 400 billion a month is being invented. maybe a bear “headfake” but a bull trap is just about impossible at this point in time.

      &&&&&

      Yeah, right. What could possibly go wrong? RA

  • Rick Ackerman September 15, 2012, 12:47 am

    You’ll never have to sell me on a deflationary outcome, Vlad, or on the possibility that a devastating selloff could come at any moment. In the meantime, I’m comfortable projecting Dow 14969 only because I’ve got one foot out the fire escape window as I monitor the Dow’s vital signs hourly. If that’s not hair-trigger enough to keep me and my subscribers out of harm’s way, then god help us all.

  • Jill September 14, 2012, 7:02 pm

    BTW, I agree with U both, Gary & Rick. That there is not creation, but confiscation, of wealth from the middle class. That confiscated wealth goes mostly to the upper class– the BIG welfare queens like JPM, GS, big health care corporations, the military industrial complex etc. The food stamp & Medicare beneficiares in the lower classes are a convenient scapegoat, to distract attention from the BIG welfare queens.

    • gary leibowitz September 14, 2012, 8:46 pm

      If only there were more Mario’s and Jill’s on these blogs we would actually get down to a good old debate.
      Both of you have something else in common, you are too bloody diplomatic. You temper your anger, refuse to take (reveal) sides, listen to other points of view without offense, and you cut to the chase with your prose.

      Me, I am the dumb village idiot at times that is quick to anger, and obsessive in my quest for blending the black and white views into a paler shade of gray.

    • Jill September 14, 2012, 11:30 pm

      Hi, Gary. It takes all kinds to make a world. Maybe your anger helps you in some way. If not, maybe you can meditate or punch a punching bag, or whatever helps you to let go of it.

      I enjoy people having different views, as I know that we can learn from each other. Even understanding the most stubborn people’s views, can help us to refine our own ideas. And we can tell when we have a strong argument when people reply to it with a personal insult to us– because that generally means they could not refute our argument with facts or reason, so they didn’t try.

      It’s good to come together with common purpose when possible also though. Surely, as a nation, it is necessary to do that on important issues. Bringing people together on common purposes, as you try to do, can be great when possible. And U never know what’s possible until you try.

  • Jill September 14, 2012, 6:57 pm

    Congrats, Rick & Gary for being so right about the market direction this last month or so. You seem to have been paying attention to different factors, but they have all predicted this big rally here.

    Sometimes it’s lonely to be right, but it’s worth it.

    Habits are amazing. Most people like their familiar habits of thinking & acting far far better than they like making money or being successful. Observing & facing reality can have a confusing & destabilizing effect on many people– maybe on all of us at times. And we have to decide if we R strong enough to move through the confusion & chaos & come out into reality, or not.

  • Robert September 14, 2012, 5:47 pm

    I broke the published minutes down yesterday for everyone who hasn’t got the time to read them entirely.

    “We don’t have tools strong enough to solve the unemployment problem,”

    -That’s all you need to read. That simple sentence is the Fed telling the world “We can not meet the basis of our dual mandate”. This statement is deliberate political cannon ammo.

    When the Fed announces open ended balance sheet expansion, they are telling the world that the expansion of credit is NOT the same thing as the creation of wealth.

    The rest of the speech is all just Blah Blah Blah, buy gold, blah blah blah…..

    • gary leibowitz September 14, 2012, 6:00 pm

      If you look further there is a creation of wealth, it’s just at the top.

      &&&&&&

      You’ve confused creation with confiscation, Gary. But I know that you know the middle class is the big loser. RA

  • Arend Lammertink September 14, 2012, 4:00 pm

    “Too bad it took the ECB’s Draghi to show him the way. Recall that Draghi one-upped his colleagues a while back with a pledge to hold Spain’s borrowing costs down come hell or high water.”

    It looks like Draghi may very well be stopped by the Germans. While all over the media it is reported that the German Constitutional Court gave “green light” to the ESM treaty, no one up to now actually thought about what it actually takes to implement the “minor issues” demanded by the court.

    It actually appears that Karlsruhe may have pulled of a genious trick and that President Joachim Gauck is not exactly “free to sign it” at all:

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/triumph-in-defeat-ruling-on-esm-in-germany-not-as-simple-as-it-seems-a-855692.html

    “Triumph in Defeat – Euro Ruling Not as Simple as It Seems

    The winners and losers in Wednesday’s ruling on the permanent euro bailout fund by Germany’s highest court may appear clear cut, but the decision is more complicated than it seems. Before the European Stability Mechanism can be ratified, the German government must answer complicated legal questions.

    […]

    The question of how exactly these legal declarations are supposed to be implemented is likely to cause headaches among legal experts in the German government and the president’s office.

    […]

    In the ruling, the court says that Germany “must express clearly that it does not wish to be bound by the ESM Treaty in its entirety if the reservations made by it should prove to be ineffective.”

    According to the German parliament’s attorney of record, Martin Nettesheim, this means that the German government must affix a formal reservation under international law and, at the very minimum, must inform and solicit a response from the other euro-zone member states and provide them with a reasonable deadline within which to enter any objections.”

    The bottomline is that you don’t just unilaterally declare an exit clause into an international treaty without consent from the other member states.

    Ooops.

    • Rick Ackerman September 14, 2012, 6:34 pm

      Thanks for the update, Arend. Here in the U.S., the high court rules, and that’s that.

  • gary leibowitz September 14, 2012, 3:47 pm

    Yes Gold has risen in lock step with the Fed’s action, as does equities. “damn the torpedoes” is a great analogy to the events off the mortgage implosion. Honestly though do you really think anyone would actually throw up their hands in disgust and say “let the chips fall where they may”? If you were orchestrating any means to “try” and prevent or forestall a deflation spiral Uncle Ben did his job well. I still say it was an ingenious move. The proof is in the fact that after 4 years we are showing signs of healing. Even the EU crisis hasn’t caused a derailment. In fact it gives testament to his decisions 4 years ago. I know most will ignore my statement but you can’t confuse what the eventual outcome will be with Ben’s tenacity. He has delayed what I believe will be the eventual outcome. I said 4 years ago that time was crucial to get past this crisis. In theory enough time will allow for normal economic growth to resume. All domestic readings show an improvement off the soft patch we saw when the EU crisis hit.

    In a perfect scenario employment only has to stop the bleeding, which means 200,000 per month growth. Wages do not have to rise much given the fact that consumers have reversed their debt burden and increased their savings. Banks are healing and are lending again. Consumers, while leary from the last crisis have been know to have a short memory. Most people want to forget the pain and usually do so in short order. All domestic indicators are holding up very well. Housing, employment, retail sales, etc… have either been going up or steady. Corporate productivity has not yet showed signs of waning. Just go outside at night and look at all the restaurants that are full. Look at the extraordinary growth of the food industry these past 2 decades. Look at vacation demand, and all discretionary spending. In fact all you have to do is look at AAPL, the greatest discretionary products out there. The only way you can deny that people are getting back to their way of life is to deny the data.

    When the world reacts differently from your expectations I would suggest you find out why instead of insisting the world is manipulating their results. The notion that copper price surge is out of thin air is absurd. China pulls over 50 percent of the demand today. The expected demand by 2020 is a doubling from here. In fact every single report I have read dating back 2 years says the same thing. I would love to see some data that says otherwise. The reason metals spike is the same as why stocks or the dollar or bonds spike. Adjusting assumptions. If demand is expected to slack and an event gives a jump start to new demand and expansion than the markets react. Simple reason.

    This really is tiring listening to the whining. I hope the future article and discussion that ensues calms your decidedly fixated notion that the world keeps getting it wrong and only a select few know the future. I have listened to daily pronouncment on an imminent doom, for years, with total lack of corroboration. My livelihood deals in logic. I am a simple guy that goes out of my way to uncomplicate things. To deconstruct to the core components and view it stripped.

    I myself believe this will end badly and have my own theory as to why. If I am wrong than hopefully I can adapt to change and figure out my mistakes. What I will not do is sit in the sand box kicking my feet and have a temper tantrum. By nature I am forces to try and figure it out. Whether I am smart enough is another matter. I have deciced a while ago that living in my own head and blocking out the environment around me only accomplishes one thing, an entrenched self-delusional resolve.

    It would do you well to open up your minds to real debate and counterpoint. Use facts and trends, fundamental or technical. To dismiss every misstep with a conspiracy theory is to believe nothing is real and no one can ever beneifit from knowledge.

    • gary leibowitz September 14, 2012, 3:58 pm

      The market: my analysis called for 1455 to be the top range if we go no higher. We have. All QE announcement, so far, resulted in a long rally. Is this one different? To go against historical trends and technical/fundamental analysis is betting the long shot. The rescnt data points have either surprised on the upside or been flat. earning announcement have also not disappointed. My 10 month old theory of being in a sweet spot might just be hitting its stride. If so than we should have 6 more months before trouble brews. Not sure how the new years automatic tax cuts come to play but time will tell.

    • redwilldanaher September 14, 2012, 4:53 pm

      I’ve been reading on the Internet for over 15 years and Gary, you are without a doubt, the most pathetic markets “commentator” I have ever read.

    • Chuck September 14, 2012, 5:02 pm

      Gary, you remind me of the worshippers of Kim Jung-il. Nothing was objectionably questioned AT ALL. Lock-step with your party……you have drunk the kool-aid for darn sure.

    • gary leibowitz September 14, 2012, 5:57 pm

      AAPL stopped taking orders for Iphone 5. Guess the demand was just too low. They must have decided to trash the phone.

      Do you people ever buy anything other than water supply, canned food, and ammo for the eventual demise of our civilization?

      I did see more signs of weakness on US Industrial Production. That must mean a crash is Right-Around-The-Corner.

      Copper demand is where? Has anyone seen the data? Perhaps my skills in using Google is lacking. I am willing to admit my mistakes.

      Perhaps the silly notion that the EU crisis has caused a hiccup in world demand might have something to do with the slow down we have seen these past 3 months. Perhaps the street doesn’t YET see an immediate coorelation to a spiralling downtrend.

      Has anyone looked at the silly sky is falling remarks over the years and concluded (yet) that your position just might be wrong? Anyone? I know I have.

      I guess we wait for the next crisis to hit for further discussion on another imminent fall. That is 3 months away. Well in truth we also have the 4th quarter expectation of a whopping 13 percent rise in earnings, down from 16 percent. On paper that looks hard to match. I will have faith the street got it right and is conservative on that number. If the street misses big time there will a lot of back-slapping here. Until that time comes, dream of a world in ashes. That image will keep you going till the real one replaces it.

    • Cam Fitzgerald September 15, 2012, 9:40 am

      Sorry Gary but you are just plain wrong where commodity markets and pricing is concerned. There is a very clear connection between pure speculation and rising costs that bears little relationship to real demand. As an example you will recall how QEII unleashed ferocious price hikes in food staples across the globe and led to social and political upheaval in some North African countries. But global demand did not double in that time. Nor did it treble with a sudden surge in the global population. I have noticed that you often refer to fundamentals where your analysis is concerned which I find a little unusual. It should be clear to anyone who has been following the markets as long as you have that they are rising despite fundamentals. We know that is so because of they way they respond to stimulants and easing. The basic connections between the investment community and more normalized market forces has been severed for quite some time and it is doubtful current highs would ever have been reached without the Fed goosing them. Are you suggesting perhaps that intervention has become so normal that you now consider it part of your fundamental analysis? I hope you realize that is just plain crazy.

  • j September 14, 2012, 3:43 pm

    Is this not currency inflation at work “Dow 15,000” ??
    Pay me in a devaluing US$ (result of QE3) for my days work and I’ll head to the grocery store exchange those dollars for real items I need, food etc. One more stop before home at the local bullion dealer to pick up some real assets gold n silver ….. the rush to convert paper printed at will Euro’s and US$’s is being heard around the world as paper is exchanged for real goods be it food, pm’s or equities….give me an asset that will keep my purchasing power as my wage will not increase to keep pace.

    QE3 is just another bailout and will not benefit the average American, nor did QE1-2
    I thought it was odd how the Bearnank defended how QE1-2 worked so well, really!!! then why is QE3 needed??
    Good luck to my friends south of the border…
    J

  • Cam Fitzgerald September 14, 2012, 7:49 am

    Well if inflation and expectations of inflation are the definition of success then a lot of people will be down right giddy over the coming months. Of course, those here at the Picks know very well that we can have inflation absent growth and so it is just a matter of waiting to see if jobs targetting achieved more than just taxing the incomes of those who are still gainfully employed. The nature of commodity markets does indeed mean that speculative forces can push prices up even as demand is falling. Copper is a perfect example of this and we should never become so complacent that we believe price growth therein represents real demand nor that consumption and output have increased. We are already well aware of stockpiling and inventory issues that have continued despite demand falling and a housing bust progressing through its natural late stages. And yet here we have seen a near 40 cent price rise in just two short weeks on stimulus expectations alone. It should be obvious to anyone paying attention therefore that goosing inflation through the spillover of investable funds into commodity markets might actually hurt employment growth if consumers see their living standards wither in the absence of incomes rising and genuine economic expansion. On that note we must also wonder what circumstances might cause incomes to rise when labour is currently in substantial surplus. So that is part of the pickle we are in. So Dow 14,969 to infinity and beyond? Well why waste a good bubble on mere mortals. When the correction finally comes I am sure it will be a worthy one.

  • John Jay September 14, 2012, 6:47 am

    “If Americans knew what it will ultimately cost them to have the Fed target unemployment rather than the money supply, they’d be having second thoughts about Bernanke’s bold new experiment.”

    Ah, Rick, you just defined the Catch 22 of the situation.
    If Americans “Knew” anything collectively, LBJ, Nixon, and Kissinger would have been sent by Americans to the Hague as the War Criminals they were, and Big Brother would have been strangled in his crib.
    Didn’t happen like that, regrettably.

    Collectively “Americans” don’t “Know” much of anything which is why the Python of Corporate Greed has strangled the economy and no one seems to notice or care. And I doubt Bernanke cares if unemployment reaches the “Grapes of Wrath” level of universal poverty.
    From Wikipedia:
    “Bernanke attended Harvard University, where he lived in Winthrop House with the future CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein,”
    Ben was College room mates with good old Lloyd so see if you can guess who his policies are designed to nurture. GS or Joe and Jane Six pack?

    Oh well, que sera, sera, as the saying goes.
    All the markets are indeed finally starting to move instead of just laying there, so there is money to be made by the folks who visit Rick’s Picks who are, very much paying attention to what is really going on.
    I guess everyone is back from the Hamptons and eager to get back to work now that Summer is almost gone.

    It’s a lot of fun to debate the big picture with my amigos on this forum, but I think I will be living in a ZIRP environment for the rest of my days. Even if Ben or his replacement start to raise rates in 2015, it will be .25% at a time.
    Like I said, que sera, sera.