Deflation and the Global Garage Sale

[Our good friend Victor R. is finding it increasingly difficult to sell things online and at garage sales.  Could it be because everyone has turned seller in order to pay some bills? RA]

The media frequently report the chronic disappointment of the political elites that the economy isn’t rebounding.  Is this perhaps because people with different incomes see the economy differently?  The simple fact is that people buy less if they are jobless or working part time.  These days, quite a few of them , including those The Government would count  as employed, are seeking additional sources of income. It may be all the same to the Labor Department’s statisticians whether the economy is creating full-time or part-time jobs, but the latter don’t put much spending money in the hands of those who hold them. Buying power is something that those who work full-time with benefits and some sense of security possess.  Those are the jobs we all want, because they amount to a career.

For everyone else, needing to make ends meet leaves one scrambling for other sources of income.  Holding garage sales or selling things on eBay are popular ways to go.  I have experience in both, as a garage-sale seller and the eBay seller. As a garage sale veteran, I have noted patterns of buyers who can be grouped into four waves.  If the sale starts at 9 a.m. the first wave is there and raring to go a half-hour early. When the clock strikes 9:00, they give the merchandise a once-over in less than a minute, then they either leave or make a low bid on one item.  These early birds are the eBay buyers, and they know exactly what they’re looking for and nothing else.  After them comes a second wave of buyers — dedicated bargain hunters who spend more time looking but are pretty picky and want to negotiate. The third wave, the mid-day group, are there to enjoy themselves , to discover things they may not have intended to buy, and to do a little haggling. The fourth wave brings the dregs. They arrive near the end of the day, pore over what’s left, and, before they leave, try to haggle you down to 50 cents for something that is priced at $1. If you don’t budge, they just walk away, sometimes with a few sharp words.

eBay Locks Up Best-of-Junk

Now the flip-side.  The eBay buyers who have picked over all the garage sales are now the sellers.  The trouble is, there are so many of them that eBay itself has become the place where best-of-garage-sales merchandise is offered.  It’s also the place where the best thrift-shop stuff turns up. Such shops used to feature more old cameras and jewelry, but now anything potentially worth more than $20 is no longer given away but featured on eBay.  My recent eBay sale of 10 photography items showed a very telling difference between a sale in 2011 and one in 2007.  The main difference?  A glut of sellers and hardly any buyers.  Of eight things I sold recently, only one drew multiple bids.  The rest went for the starting bid, or didn’t even get a bid, despite starting prices on the low end of what had recently sold.

Thus does the global garage sale, if not the revenues, continue to grow. To the jobless and other have-nots, the economy stinks, and selling on eBay is just coping with hard times. Millions who are out of work have come to eBay with an “anything-to-make-a-buck” attitude.  But because buyers haven’t nearly kept pace with this growth, it is a buyer’s market where low prices prevail. With the economy mired in recession, garage sales are everywhere. eBay’s durability is itself a reflection of the widening gap between the well-employed and the masses struggling in hard times to trade things for money amongst themselves.  Meanwhile, the garage sale “waves” could be said to represent four classes into which we could all be grouped: market makers; the fully employed; strugglers and the bitter bottom.  If all of them need expanding credit to chug along, it’s possible their lot may get worse before it gets better.

***

Trading stocks, options and commodities in these treacherous times calls for great patience and skill. Click here if you’d like to see how Rick’s Picks approaches the challenge.

  • Rich July 12, 2012, 9:14 pm

    Friday the 13th July 2012 could be an interesting day now that most are expecting lower prices…

  • Rich July 12, 2012, 9:09 pm

    JPM and WFC consensus earnings both lowered to 81 cents and may beat for an upside surprise.

    FAS already well above 82.80 lows today targeting 115…

  • Rich July 12, 2012, 8:53 pm

    SPX 1341.29 so far…

  • Mercurious July 12, 2012, 7:57 pm

    @ RA: “Books themselves seem to be entering a Dark Age. They are no longer even saleable at garage sales. Will they eventually be burned for fuel?”

    There is a niche that is being successfully exploited on books with expired on pre-copyright protections. If you haven’t discovered http://www.forgottenbooks.org/ you really should look them over. Some of the most incredibly interesting, literate works from a time when gentlemen and gentle ladies were expected to be educated enough to be able to traverse the terrain of a work with meat on its spine.

    I was very lucky to find http://www.forgottenbooks.org/ early on and got a lifetime subscription for $50. I can download any–or all–of their one million PDF volumes for life. Talk about a great trade…

    Right now, I have been taking some of the loot I’ve been fortunate to put together and buying things that I hope to have see me through the Dark Age Rick mentioned, a possibility that will be discounted right up until the New Visigoths come in through the transom. I see a lot of folks who keep collecting money, PM, etc. Just a gentle reminder this might be a good time to use at least a part of those resources to provision your life for a time when you may need all the human inspiration you can muster just to keep from sinking under the weight of the tragedy that will be unfolding.

  • Jill July 12, 2012, 6:33 pm

    Good luck to you folks who are trading this dicey market.

    Have a good vacation, Gary.

    Re: politics. It is a tribal activity. Folks take on the views of the “tribe” of people they identify with, and they keep those views. The tribe helps one another to constantly focus on the facts or ideas which seem to confirm their views, and to ignore all facts which contradict their views. That’s how it’s done, and nothing anyone says or posts is going to change that.

  • Rich July 12, 2012, 5:44 pm

    Gary, Vlad and some others may be amused to know we bought SPY calls on the former lows this AM and posted four ideas targeting over 100%.

    Gold, Alan Greenspan’s proxy for real interest rates, and TNX, his proxy for earnings yields, seem to have put in a temporary double bottom at 1554 and 1.452% respectively, implying a market PE of 68 times earnings.

    Thus a rip your head off rally before the final deluge and the Merrill $2000 gold QE III deus ex machina in September may be a market surprise to remember.

    In related news, ‘Gold May Have Been Manipulated Like Libor: Expert’

    Really?!

    Round up the usual suspects. Please…

    • Mark Uzick July 12, 2012, 6:04 pm

      Good luck with your trades. I’m still holding my SPY Aug. 136 puts in a trade that should last 3 -5 weeks until NYMO goes below and then comes back up through -52 after falling from +100.

      At that point, I’ll switch to calls.

    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 6:56 pm

      Not that this seems to surprise anyone but Gary as we’ve all known that these markets were manipulated all along but let’s tally it up anyway:

      1. The most important interested rate in the world – check

      2. The most widely followed precious metal in the world that is seen by many as an alternative to fiat madness – check

      3. The USSA Stock Indices – check

      4. All government statistics – check

      5. All corporate accounting – check
      5. a: All Wall St. estimates to produce “beats”

      6. All “camp follower” media – check

      7. All false flags and false pretenses – check

      And the list goes on…

      Orwell something, something, universal deceit something, something…

    • Rich July 12, 2012, 8:50 pm

      MU, we can both make money on our calls and puts.

      Thanks to Rick’s and expensive experiential lessons that options are burning matches, do mostly overnight trades, none longer than a week…

  • Dan July 12, 2012, 5:28 pm

    I don’t think the Chinese government has as much control over its economy as the U.S. does. You can start a business over there way more easily and as long as you grease the right palms they’ll let you do more or less whatever you want with it. The people who think China is some communist s**thole like the USSR are IMO even more deluded than the ones who think the U.S. is some bastion of free market capitalism.

  • gary leibowitz July 12, 2012, 4:46 pm

    One other comment. Most here believe that government intrusion, or restrictions on business and individuals are to blame for the state of our economy.

    You do so knowing that almost all major problems were a result of lack of control, or unenforced restrictions. How do you reconcile the two?

    Where would we be today had the government not intruded on our lives with these laws and restrictions?

    No social security, no free medical asistance, no free lunch. Imagine everyone up in arms over this governments intrusion on expanding health care. Such things as preventing insurance companies from banning individuals with pre-medical conditions, allowing you to shop and choose the best program for your needs. Yes it will most likely cost more. Yes it will put more of a strain on our indebtedness. I personally believe we can’t affort it, and I also believe government don’t manage as well as private institutions.

    Even thougn I disagree with this program, I would rather there be a program that helps the poor and middle class as opposed to say the wealthy. Romney is a great exaple of the dichotomy of the two parties. His own father was wealthy in his own right and paid twice the taxes his son pays. He also insisted on showing 12 years of tax returns. His son has between 25 and 100 million in his IRA alone! How the heck could some one put so much money in a tax deferred program? he refuses to show his tax statements. His parties agenda is to lower their own tax costs ever further? How anyone can carry a rallying cry for this type of blatant disregard for fairness is beyond me.

    So I ask everyone here, how is it that my “fairness” approach is attacked while your meanness, lack of empathy, and attack of all authority, something that is considered rational?

    Imagine everyone here declaring doom and gloom is upon us while they vote in a person that vowes to give even more of this governments income back to the very wealthy. Bizzare.

    This will most probably be my last post for a while. Had to get it all in. Vacation time.

  • gary leibowitz July 12, 2012, 4:02 pm

    Everyone seems to be angry that this government doesn’t act on impulse and first punish, and later deal with the repercussions. The hard-liner, bible thumping, fire and brimstone preachers, that believe everyone is a sinner and in order to get to heaven he must first be punished on earth to be purified for the next life.

    Me, I see and understand the necessity of government intrusion and manipulation. Sometimes it is because of undo power and influence over them, while other times they weigh the benifits of such action to the masses. Yes governments can be corrupted by the rich and powerful, just like an individuals can.

    On a grand scale where millions will be affected, I do not believe their intention is anything but honorable. Its like letting out a know sex offender from jail after the minimum required stay and find he molests again. Is there evil intent by our government to allow this to happen?

    • Mark Uzick July 12, 2012, 5:53 pm

      Gary, the thing you refer to as “government” is the absence of government, (anarchy) the arbitrary and unjust decrees by by those who organize a gang of criminal exploiters ( the state) to initiate force and coercion against those who would otherwise peacefully go about the government of their personal lives and voluntary social interactions for mutual benefit.

      Legitimate government isn’t a “necessary evil”, but a pure force of good – the very essence of civilized order. It represents that part of society that’s allowed, by limiting the unjust and violent interference by fiat of the state into the civilized governance of man’s affairs. The state is only a “necessary evil” in the sense that a sufficient percentage of men find liberty and concomitant responsibility a prospect more frightening than living in a prison ruled by psychopaths who appeal to their hatreds, envies and irrational fears.

      To assuage their fears (where “they” may include ourselves) we accept “necessary evil” but try to institute limitations upon its powers to enslave us; but since we have difficulty distinguishing evil from good (For anything that’s necessary – even evil – must in some sense, twisted though it be, also be a “good”.) society lacks the sense to know not to permit the expansion of the state’s powers as a society that believes in “necessary evil” will be uncertain about how to discern right from wrong.

      The state isn’t corrupted by the powerful and wealthy – it is an already corrupt system that promotes wealth and power to those who behave most corruptly. In a corrupt system corruption becomes a defensive tool of survival. The honest, hard working and sincere simply cannot compete in that environment with those who exploit the injustice of the system of arbitrary violence against the rule and legitimate authority of voluntary contract.

  • mava July 12, 2012, 3:55 pm

    gary leibowitz:

    ” In fact I would bet anyone here that next months figures on employment, future orders, service sector, EU impact on our demoestic markets, all surprise in a favorable manner. I would even suggest that the revised numbers for this month get pushed up.”

    Yep, totally agree. Our statistic is all fake write ups. Because we have just heard the bad news, I have no doubt Obama is pushing as hard as he can on statisticians to make sure the next or even revised picture is much better. Haven’t we seen that before many times?

    gary leibowitz

    “As for China I still can’t see a dramatic contraction since their government have more control over all segments of the industry.”

    Well, Gary, then we should do the same and give Obama absolute power over everything up to the smallest detail! After all, if the centralized control means stability of the economy (lol, was that what happened in Nazi, and USSR examples?), then we need to give our own Hitler many more powers than he has now.

    • gary leibowitz July 12, 2012, 4:04 pm

      Why do you twist everthing I say? I state a know fact that Chine has almost absolute control. I never said it was good or bad. I just stated why I believe they can prevent or turn around their economies easier.

    • mava July 13, 2012, 3:37 am

      I don’t… May-be I have misunderstood you?

      But, here you saying again that because (yes, only according to what you have heard) china’s government has absolute control, you expect it to be more stable economically.

      Am I understanding you correctly? If yes, then that is exactly what I said, by suggesting further than if so, then we should have our own Hitler or Chairman Mao, if you will.

  • gary leibowitz July 12, 2012, 3:37 pm

    You want to argue with semantics. I inter relate manipulation to mean some hidden agenda by the Government that purported to be “rigging” everything. I do not believe it is intentional by the government nor do they have nefarious reasons. I do not dispute that large corporations that have a near monopolistic e control of a segment of the economy will use its power and greed to try and manipulate for their benefit.

    As for the LIBOR mess do you really think any government will allow personal accounts to be affected by this? If this government can prevent a financial breakdown during the derivative debacle they certainly can control this problem. No disruption of the banking system, FDIC insurance, 401K, money markets. You call these things manipulation. I call them putting patches to a wound that if left untreated will get worse.

    I don’t deny that all thru history governments “manipulate” for an outcome they believe will cause the least harm. Call me altruistic but I haven’t seen any actions that would be deemed evil, or one that is intentional to harm.

    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 6:27 pm

      Satire?

  • mac July 12, 2012, 11:07 am

    “individualism” is a feminine desire…american men r very feminized.

    There is truth, it is not an individual thing.

    …garage sales, the future of the middle class in america?

    some seem to think america has “freedom”…that is a myth.

  • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 10:57 pm

    You do realize that everyone is using program trades. That means what appears to be “manipulated” sharp moves are massive trades with the same trading models.

    I believe these programs are negated and smoothed out in the long run. It’s the daily action that can get skewed.

    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 12:25 am

      Right Gary. “Spoof”! Guess you didn’t read about the Squid’s market manipulation program that went missing. Yes, we’ll ignore LIEBOR at your behest. Yes it is nothing, everyone fool 401ker knew it was happening. I love the irony of you calling for prosecution re: the real estate debacle. In realtime you would have defended it as unmanipulated market action….

    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 12:49 am

      Much greater thinkers than I have come to the conclusion that the truth is one of the few things that matters. I do hold it dearly because it is so rare in this world and the lack of it is at the heart of what enslaved us.

      Speaking of:

      http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/07/u-s-gave-tens-of-billions-to-libor-manipulating-banks-even-after-knowing-about-the-manipulation.html

      Just more corporafascistommunism I guess. Give Gary a few minutes to explain it all away. We should get him a button that screams “buy!” or “just buy!” so that he can be on equal footing with cnbc’s crooked market jester, the self-loathing Great Cramoo…

    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 1:13 am

      I feel like I’m typing this for the 100th time but I have to restate that I have no problem at all with Gary or any other bull calling for yet another round of successful levitation. My problem is that Gary does it in a way that rebroadcasts the propaganda and treats it all as if it is legit. Take Mario for example, he tends to be an optimist and has his reasons but he more often than not will acknowledge that the USSA is an ongoing scam. I believe the same is the case with China but he sees it the opposite way. I may be too far from the Chinese situation to understand it and therefore he may be right and I wrong. On the other hand, he may be too close to the situation and may not be seeing the proverbial forest. For the sake of the Chinese people, I hope it all falls apart and they have a chance to achieve something closer to true freedom. I hope the same for here in the USSA. In fact, I hope for it the world over but I don’t ever think it will happen. Carlin was right, it’s their club and they’re not letting you in…

    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 3:24 am
    • redwilldanaher July 12, 2012, 3:46 am

      Gary, is this you?

      \http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BE9FT6OikWY

  • Rich July 11, 2012, 10:41 pm

    And Rick!…

  • Rich July 11, 2012, 10:39 pm

    Nice intraday market call Vlad…

  • bc July 11, 2012, 9:41 pm

    Let’s not forget counter party risk. The 10 yr. surge today indicates someone wants to get into safety big time. Too bad LIBOR is fixed. I’d love to see what banks are really charging each other for unsecured loans. I would not trust any money market fund right now. We sit here and laugh at the fools who trusted actual real banks in Europe, while blithely trusting our own shadow (non chartered non FDIC insured) banking sector. Amazing.

    • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 10:13 pm

      What you will not see is banks taking the brunt of the LIBOR mess. I suspect they will be fined and punished with restrictions. We all know the “too big to fail” is a real case scenario with the big 5.

  • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 8:31 pm

    The Fed minutes an ambiguous message with no consensus. Drifting lower. With earnings upon us and this announcent I view this as positive. All the negative news is out yet the market isn’t having any hysterical moments. The expectation for earnings is down by 2 percent this quarter followed by 5 percent rise next. The final quarter they expect a 13 percent move up. Still not unreasonable.

    In fact I would bet anyone here that next months figures on employment, future orders, service sector, EU impact on our demoestic markets, all surprise in a favorable manner. I would even suggest that the revised numbers for this month get pushed up. The Asia factor is now more important for our export partnership, along with South America. As for China I still can’t see a dramatic contraction since their government have more control over all segments of the industry.

    I make these statements not as a wish list, but one that I whole heartedly expect to happen. We should know for sure if the trend shows a dramatic uptick within the next 3 to 4 weeks. In the meantime I wait till next week to see if 1310 hold, as i expect it would.

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 9:14 pm

      We agree GL.

      There was a volume peak bookcasing the 2:33 PM Masonic Impaler FOMC SPY low of the day…;

  • Rusty July 11, 2012, 6:03 pm

    You know it ain’t a gimmie put to get your money anywhere

    http://answercenter.ebay.com/question/Paypal/Funds-Availability/1000250413

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:00 pm

      PayPal and EBay can also be Roach Motels for money…

  • John Jay July 11, 2012, 5:08 pm

    edd,
    The only problem with “kicking it up a notch” is that when 42 note holders go to foreclose at the same time it creates confusion to say the least. However, if all 42 of them sold their notes to Uncle Sam at par, I guess he only has to foreclose once, if at all. The other 41 bad notes get paid for by you and I. On second thought, maybe it will work if Uncle Sam backstops it all. Hurrah for the new economic model!

  • Rich July 11, 2012, 4:56 pm

    Aloha All
    Just bought SPY Jul 134 calls at previous low of the day.
    FOMC may bring a higher market today at some point…

    • BDTR July 11, 2012, 5:29 pm

      Front-running Our Most Connected

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-year-fed-has-doubled-sp-admits-fed

      well observed, Rich

    • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 5:38 pm

      BDTR,
      Are you suggesting we would NOW be at 600 on the SP500 if there was no pre-announcements? That would mean a P/E ratio of 6? Hard to believe.

    • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 5:42 pm

      The political flak would be too great if they announced another QE. More likely the meeting remains ambiguous with not much market direction.
      There are a number of recent indicators that suggest employment and orders are picking up.

    • BDTR July 11, 2012, 6:15 pm

      ‘Are you suggesting we would NOW be at 600 on the SP500 if there was no pre-announcements?’

      Not necessarily, Gary. 600 is simply a statistical reversion level independent of the concentrated influence of pre-FOMC announcement days. (That said, I’ll be sidelined until 6 or less is representative P/E, ‘easy’ money notwithstanding.)

      Obviously, markets wouldn’t exist anywhere @ current levels w/o Fed juicing in its various systemic guises. Alas, this particular one has had a run that quants should soon find too compelling a set-up to neglect much longer.

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 7:58 pm

      Thanks BDTR.
      Sometimes just get lucky fade trading Fed Headlines expecting more tightening since VD, with Earnings headlines expecting no beats.
      Observed most people bearish here, especially yesterday when ISE ISEE All Opening Long Call/Put buying hit an 8 month low of 53%.
      9:30 to 10:10 today ISEE EQ C/P were +218% and +217%, in the past leading indicators of an incipient rally like 9 March 2009 Flash Dash.
      So far inside SPY day with Dow down, AUD, EUD, Copper, Crude, Silver and TBill rates up and USD down, in the past leading indicators of up SPY as people sold cash for trash, and V could be very right about a major breakout from the wedge.
      Y’all know my little bitty bet.
      Aloha…

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:14 pm

      Dear GL:

      PE’s can be the lowest at tops with earnings peaks and highest at bottoms with earnings troughs.

      Thought the FOMC 24 Hours Show Study was great, LOL:

      http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Jack%20Bauer

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 9:09 pm

      Lost nerve to buy more SPY Jul 134 calls at 2:40 PM 1.20 low.

      With any good fortune there might be another test of the action/reaction low…

    • edd July 12, 2012, 12:23 am

      Rich,
      I lived in North Carolina for many years and owned property in western NC, west of Asheville. Contact me for any info if you wish. ecduffy79@gmail.com

  • Tech-trac July 11, 2012, 4:51 pm

    Seems like Winter stuff to me!

  • PhotoRadarScam July 11, 2012, 4:09 pm

    There are other factors. Shipping rates are higher and make buying anything that ships cost more. There are more and more people selling more items on eBay, especially people who flip items that they find on bargain liquidation sites. And a local garage sale market is not a national indicator. Some cities/towns are suffering more than others for special reasons, such as a local large employer shutting down. I don’t think any of the conclusions or inferences in this article are reliable.

    &&&&

    Come again? RA

    • edd July 11, 2012, 5:01 pm

      PRS,
      I live 90 miles outside of Washington DC in the Blue Ridge mountains. The two most prevalent commercial signs in the nearest town are “closed” or “for lease”. Yet, in DC area suburbs the economy that is feeding off the leviathan is going gang busters. Great Depression Two right alongside prosperity. Mario`s observance about the duality of America in a nutshell. How long can this situation coexist?

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:10 pm

      EDD:
      Tempted to buy an REO farm in the Blue Ridges of NC not too far from Asheville.
      Anything else to know?:

      http://m7.tm00.com/TMsubscribe.net/ViewOnline.aspx?u=DdrpdOGj18ou&t=&l=&e=&m=

    • BigTom July 11, 2012, 10:37 pm

      Rich – went thru Ashville on my motorcycle a few years ago on a long trip. Happen to pull into a McDonalds to get a quickie and was talking to a person in the parking lot who had a harley parked in his pickup truck. He kept looking at me funny as did the people once I went inside to order. Didn’t understand why until I visited the rest room to wash up. My face was literally covered with thin film of black ash. With my dark glasses removed I had looked like a racoon……now I know how Ashville got it’s name. Beautiful country all around there though, and a short distance to many neat places….relative to the distances we are use to out here in the west.

  • mava July 11, 2012, 3:54 pm

    Mark Uzick,
    You’re must be a foreigner then? Why else would you ever buy an American car? I know, because I am a foreigner myself, and I remember how blinded I was by all the stories of “American”, until I bitterly found out that everything tht America used to be was long made illegal.

    I was lucky to visit the junk yard very soon after moving over to US. I saw with my eyes, that the American part was all much newer, and rarely over 90,000 miles, inside all looked extremely dirty and broken. At the same time, the Japanese section consisted of a wide variety, but mostly 200-300+ thousand miles vehicles, and they look relatively good on the inside (meaning the owners didn’t hate them), and were much, much older.
    One cannot go wrong after seeing the junk yard.

    Plus, one can read Arthur Haley’s “Wheels” to understand everything there is to understand about American car maker’s socialist fiasco. These guys completely sold off their country, and hired all the useless workforce to please the whores in Washington.

    • Mark Uzick July 12, 2012, 2:10 pm

      Mava, are you implying that I’m a sucker?

      Yeah, I was! I knew that Japanese cars are of much better quality but they seemed so expensive for used cars. American used cars seemed like so much more car for the money. I was a victim of the classic value trap – it’s not dissimilar to choosing RIMM over APPL in the search for a bargain.

  • John Jay July 11, 2012, 3:52 pm

    Not only are the markets rigged.
    LIBOR proves they are rigged far beyond anything we all imagined a few short years ago.
    Some CEO of a small company in Connecticut just got 70 months in prison for ripping off a couple of million from his firm.
    But if the theft is on a grand scale, there is no “Law” to face at all.
    Then Obama can stand up and say “Technically, no laws were broken by the banks”.
    Like pledging the same mortgage up to 42 times in separate MBS bundles is legal, even in this day and age.
    So how do you ever square theft on that scale?
    I await the first ETF or retail stock broker to blow up and go BK.
    The truth is out there, and in this system it is revealed by bankruptcy of a big player.

    • edd July 11, 2012, 4:50 pm

      “Like pledging the same mortgage up to 42 times in separate MBS bundles is legal, even in this day and age.”

      Hey JJ, It isn`t the bankers fault. They are just used to loaning out nine fictious dollars on the back of one real dollar. That scam has worked so well, they just kicked it up a notch with MBS.

    • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 5:33 pm

      Forget LIBOR, how about one single person prosecuted for the mortgage debacle. Brokerage houses for hedging against their own bundled junk, banks falsifying mortgage documents, realtors selling to social secutiry recipients with no other income, etc…

  • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 3:24 pm

    By me there are very little garage sale. Live in a brownstone neighborhood where people just leave their unwanted stuff on the sidewalk. Some of the items are cloths, books, working appliances, functional furniture and electronics. There are a sentry of lower-income people that scour the area early every day to pick up the items they need.

    One interesting day my wife came home with a B&N Nook in perfect working order. I was immediately suspicious and asked her what else was left out. She told me there were stll some items that looked brand new but she suspected most of the items had already been taken. I opened the book and found childrens material still on it. I also noticed the Nook was still registered and I got the email address from the device. I emailed them and found out that their elderly mother had decided to clean the house and placed all the items on their front stoop. They were a bit upset to say the least. While I was doubltful these items were left on purpose, my wife, who often picks up stuff in our area didn’t think twice about it.

    I moved into this neighborhood over 30 years ago when it was considered inexpensive. We lucked out and now it is one of the most desireable areas in Brooklyn NY.

    I read somewhere that the job market has a decisive ethnic and education divide. White educated people under the age of 55 have over a 5 fold advantage over hispanics and blacks for keeping or getting a job. The hardest hit seem to be people over 55 and non-whites.

    &&&&&

    Gary: It is time for you to contribute a guest commentary. Please respond to the email I sent you yesterday about this. Thank you. RA

    • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 10:51 pm

      I am so tired trying to defend my position on this site, now you want me to be exposed to major ridicule? Kidding aside, I am leaving for a trip for 5 days, starting Friday. My wife is a recently retired teacher and she is driving me crazy with all her energy.

      I will try and think of something original, not pulled from articles, and get back to you ASAP. If my head will work tonight I will give it a try. Either way I will let you know.

      &&&&&&

      Atta boy, Gary! I just knew you weren’t going to let Vlad kick sand in your face. FWIW, we haven’t published many editorials about the food chain lately. Or the dearth of great show tunes. And there’s poor Tosh O., about to get strung up by the feminists for having joked about — ha-ha — rape.

      I leave the choice of a topic completely up to you. RA

    • mario cavolo July 12, 2012, 2:56 am

      Hey Gary! Go for it! When I contribute an article, you think I don’t know its going to get feisty? 🙂 …in fact besides those occasional times when it gets too personal and we all start smacking at each other, the debating has much improved my thinking and writing…

      Cheers, Mario

    • cam fitzgerald July 12, 2012, 4:32 am

      Go for it Gary. I am a fan of many of your past comments even though some were controversial. There is nothing quite like the feeling of being ripped into by most of your social blogging peers and then turning out to be right later on.

  • Michael Johnston July 11, 2012, 3:09 pm

    Ebay’s success, in large measure, is because they created an efficient marketplace for items that were previously advertised and sold locally, if they were sold at all. With this new marketplace efficiency came a curious side effect, welcomed by buyers but loathed by sellers: prices on items formerly thought scarce began to drop precipitously. In essence, the efficiency of the marketplace has forced prices down to what are arguably their natural levels, and perhaps lower. To my recollection, the current status quo, where final auction values seem to be decreasing, has always been a problem for sellers. It it exacerbated by current economic trends? Probably. But the fact remains that the world only needs so many ‘rare’ doorknobs at a given moment, too.

  • Andrew Gutterman July 11, 2012, 1:50 pm

    Victor must live in a very upscale neighborhood. Around here sales start as early as 6:30 AM with the bargain hunters showing up a couple of hours later.

    We have a bookshop, sell online, do software for booksellers, and sell at an antiques mall, largest on the East Coast:

    http://www.factoryantiquemall.com/

    Warning! They have a YouTube ad that plays when you get to the page.

    What we find that is when get to the yard sales later in the morning most folks just want to get rid of stuff at any price. We get some really good bargains at 40 cents on the dollar.

    I buy on eBay to resell online elsewhere. eBay is no longer a great place to sell relatively common stuff, everyone else is doing the same. even for rarer items its a crapshoot, often good books go for next to nothing. I can’t remember how often I’ve bought $100 books for $14.00 or less, including postage.

    Some of our software users sell on eBay, most report not only falling sales but rising costs as eBay tries to squeeze more out of them, or complicates the process to the point where sometimes its just not worth the effort.

    Andy

    • Rick Ackerman July 11, 2012, 8:48 pm

      My wife inherited collectible books on hunting, fishing and archery that her law professor father, an avid outdoorsman and book dealer in his spare time, had accumulated over 50 years. Many of these books are rarities, but they are sitting boxed and unsold in our basement because the market for good books started to dry up several years ago.

      From my own collection, a book that might have sold for $1500 a few years ago — a signed copy of Bruce McCall’s ‘Zany Afternoons’ — has crashed to around $300. I sent this book to the author for his signature and thought it might be the only one like it, autographed close to the publication date. Turns out there are at least several — held by people who are evidently more eager than I to part with their copies.

      Something similar happened to the Honus Wagner tobacco card. Pre-Internet, it was a singular rarity. Ever since, more than a dozen have come out of hiding, some in beautiful condition.

      Several friends of mine who are book dealers are looking to exit the business. But there will come a time when even Powell’s (Portland) and The Strand (NYC) will be too glutted with books to buy any more of them. Books themselves seem to be entering a Dark Age. They are no longer even saleable at garage sales. Will they eventually be burned for fuel?

  • bc July 11, 2012, 8:17 am

    No one ever warns they are going bankrupt. All you ever get is little subtle hints things aren’t quite right and then boom, you’re Suddenly an unsecured creditor of the once going concern. Ask the customers, clients, bond investors, etc. of MFG, PFG, Scranton, Stockton, SanBernardino, Greece, Vallejo, Harrisburg, and soon Spain, Italy, LA, Oakland, … I’m tired, going to bed.

  • Mark Uzick July 11, 2012, 7:42 am

    People have so much junk that they don’t need and have no place for that mini-storage warehouses, whose customers can ill afford the draining monthly payments, have been a booming business for years. This trend of the liquidation of the piles of useless junk accumulated during loose credit fueled consumption boom, that still hasn’t completely ended, promises that there will be desperate sellers and a buyer’s market in second hand goods for many years to come.

    &&&&&

    Mark: It is time for you to contribute a guest commentary. Please respond to the email I sent you yesterday about this. Thank you. RA

    • mario cavolo July 11, 2012, 8:47 am

      perhaps we find another example of this in the used car market…I can assume that used cars will continue to be available at better and better prices to be had…

      Of course, most people in the U.S. had no business buying new cars with payments in the first place, all part of sucking them down into the credit game… Even when I was living back in the states, I would take some time and easily find fabulous older, mint condition cars (1979 malibu, 1981 rx7, 1978 grand prix, 1990 300zx, 1988 eldorado, 1990 chrysler caravan…I swear they were all great, trouble free garaged cars, carefully purchased for around 3k…when the front wheel drive tranny on the caravan finally went out, i sold it to a junk yard for $400…otherwise I had sold all of them two years later for very close to what I had paid for them…another plus to owning assets which have already mostly depreciated to sensible, useable value…

      Its scary, but its not going to change…the lifestyles of people in this situation are going to continue shifting to more mercantile thinking and practices, that is still prevalent here in China/Asia… the regulations in the states against being able to do so is the part of greatest concern to me…neighborhood rules that you “can’t” run a business out of your home, etc…Oh really?…when enough people need to to provide roof and food for their families, these issues will also start shifting…its going to be rough…

      Cheers, Mario

      &&&&&

      It was leases that gave Americans the ability to buy way more car than they could afford, Mario. An irony is that they are now having to keep those cars for so long that it has driven up prices for good used cars.

      A parallel development is that rents are going through the roof because Americans can no longer afford to buy houses. First-time buyers between the ages of 20 and 35 have all but disappeared.

      RA

    • Mark Uzick July 11, 2012, 11:37 am

      Hi Mario, you’re right: responsible people don’t buy depreciating assets, like cars, on credit.

      You’ve been very lucky with cars though: all my life I had owned second hand American cars – they have been unreliable money pits – even the ones with low mileage. These union controlled, crapitalist corporations should have all been liquidated in bankruptcy court.

      In 2005 I junked my last car: fed up, I purchased a brand new Camry – one of the few actually built in Japan – (all cash, of course – $17,700 +tax) and I haven’t spent a dime on repairs. 7 years of no repairs have pretty much paid me back in full.

    • mario cavolo July 11, 2012, 1:09 pm

      Hi Mark!….yep that’s typically toyota and honda, etc….you can buy a great new car like that and if you keep it for many years, that makes sense too…of course there’s always a bit of luck involved!…

    • Andrew Gutterman July 11, 2012, 1:38 pm

      Went to an auction sale of a bunch of those mini-warehouses yesterday. Junk went for practically nothing.

      They move out of their house/apartment/abode and store in the storage unit. Then some relocate, take what they can with them and default. Some don’t find a new location or the means to pay the storage rent and just default.

      Right down the street from me, every 3 months or so they have an auction. We go for the entertainment.

      Yesterday a full unit which represents perhaps a one bedroom apartment with enough stuff to pack it to the door went for $160. Nobody knows what’s in is as all you get to see is what is up front.

      Its a sad, sad world we live in today.

      Andy

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:06 pm

      Mario, you reminded me of my favourite auto arbitrage in college and grad school. Buy an uncosmetic salt-encrusted used mechanically sound beater, one that slid into a Mack Truck, for $100 in Michigan, then drive it non-stop to sunny California, picking up hitchhikers along the way to share the drive around the clock, hit a steer cold dead on the Utah highway at dusk and sell it to a San Francisco home garage mechanic who would fix it and sell it higher, to cover food, gasoline and then some. That was when Detroit gasoline wars got as low as a White Castle Burger.

      Maybe that’s coming again…

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:26 pm

      For decades every Japanese car bought new or used sold at a higher price when it was time to upgrade.

      Chinese/Korean cars eventually may do that too.

      Don’t try that at home with an American car…

    • gary leibowitz July 11, 2012, 10:19 pm

      Rick,
      The most damaging aspect to credit was Credit Cards, which took off around 1982, same time as the great bull run started. In the early 80’s car companies wouldn’t even consider leasing to an individual. I have never leased and always held my car for 10 years.

    • Mark Uzick July 12, 2012, 12:33 pm

      Rick, I did respond promptly. I assumed you understood my answer. Do you need me to resend it?

      &&&&

      Unreceived so far, Mark. Did you send it to: rick@rickackerman.com?

    • Robert July 12, 2012, 6:34 pm

      HAHAHAH…

      How ironic (moronic?) would it be if the Fed were compiling and scrutinizing Ebay and craigslist inventory turnover data as its primary counter-trend indicator of money velocity in the real economy…?

      I predict that the Dem-idiots will offset the expiration of the Bush tax cuts with a free government stimulus check…

      Retail prices are still relatively stable/rising, even though retail sales volumes are slowly trending down. One only need walk through a new car lot or the neighborhood Costco to see that the decreasing price consequent of deflation is not a universal trend in motion (yet).

      This might be a false indicator due to persistent price stickiness, or it might mean that the supply of real capital in the system is not so lean as many believe.

      If Craigslist and Ebay sales volumes are truly declining, then perhaps it is merely the result of people realizing that paying $20 for a broken coffee maker off of craigslist is a riskier purchase than buying a brand new one for $30… no?

      I mean, Junk is junk. If there is not a market for it, then maybe that’s because people are slowly realizing that “ya gets what ya pays for”

      US real incomes are falling, while global real incomes are rising (ignore the newspaper and all the drug cartel violence BS and take a weekend trip down to Mexico – your eyes may be opened widely by what you see:

      3% unemployment

      5.7% nominal GDP growth

      Sam’s Club stores springing up all over the country

      Roads being paved

      Mothers taking their kids into the local Burger King for lunch (where the same Whopper that sells in the US for 3 bucks can be purchased for about $1.75)

      Gasoline for $2.00 per gallon – Diesel for $2.10

      The US media warns you about traveling abroad because the US media wants to keep you blind to the truth: Your real income is being taken from you so that it can be used to increase real incomes everywhere else.

      I’ve said it before- reversion to the mean is only a bitch for those accustomed to being above the mean.

      I can harbor no sympathy for the failing American middle class, nor for the terrified boomers who are realizing that they are woefully ill-equipped to deal with a reality that is descending on them like the Cretaceous-Tertiary impactor that took out a mataphorically equivalent population of dinosaurs 65 million years ago…

      We have paid for our own extinction with our casual blindness toward reality…

      We see the asteroid in our telescopes, and we have calculated that it will it, yet we still believe (and vote for) ANYONE who has the “audacity” to tell us it will miss us.

      The piper is here my friends; and he WILL be paid.

  • mario July 11, 2012, 5:42 am

    Such trouble.. I stand by my “schism” approach to explain U.S. society…100 million or so Americans are in the wrong place at the wrong time and their scenario will continue to decline for many more years as they do what they must just to make ends meet. However this does not necessarily mean the other strata and sectors of the society are not chugging along quite well, relatively…

    Cheers, Mario

  • John Jay July 11, 2012, 4:56 am

    It is unraveling more each day.
    The Scranton mayor put all Public Worker Wages at $7.25 an hour, he needs permission from the State to actually go bankrupt.
    PGF does go bankrupt, 100’s of millions pilfered and spent. Once again, a la MF Global, customers are screwed.
    Regulators did not even check with the bank that held the segregated funds to see if the numbers matched.
    85,000 people apply for disability in June.
    The system is failing.
    The people at the top are oblivious to this fact.
    They have no plans to fix any problems.
    They will not even admit there is a problem.
    Therefore the great unraveling is going to accelerate.
    The folks at the outer edges are already aware of this.
    Back in DC, the Fuehrer Bunker mentality will rule, right up to the end, just like Berlin in 1945.

    • Rick Ackerman July 11, 2012, 8:13 pm

      And this morning it is San Bernadino County in the news, declaring bankruptcy after it was discovered they have only $150,00 in the bank — not enough, even, to meet the next payroll.

      Actually, this news has already sunk out of sight on Google’s news page. It would have been big news five years ago that an entire county in Southern California had gone belly up. These days, though, it rates just a passing mention.

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:38 pm
  • Rich July 11, 2012, 4:30 am

    Under the Consumer Product Safety Act signed into law by W and Food Safety Modernization Act signed into law by 0 as corporate relief, not only lemonade stands but garage sales became illegal in many municipalities according to Reason Magazine and Google.

    Re AAPL, which established $97 B cash management Braeburn and announced $1 B Data Center subsidiaries in Reno for tax savings, AAPL $10.30 expected Q3 earnings might be an easy beat.

    Stock selling at .7 PEG suggest AAPL undervalued and under accumulation, targeting devilish 666:

    SOX, also often a market leader, oversold and targeting +28%.

    I defer to Rick’s ABCD technology, but do smell an All Star market rally after ISE ISEE Opening Long Calls/Puts hit a long-term low today…

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 7:41 pm

      V, maybe time for all of us to re-read and live Alisa Zinov’yevna Rosenbaum’s Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, particularly the two Alan Greenspan essays and Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn’s Оди́н день Ива́на Дени́совича Odin den’ Ivana Denisovicha…

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Day_in_the_Life_of_Ivan_Denisovich

    • Rich July 11, 2012, 8:24 pm

      When Rand talked and wrote of capitalism, she meant laissez-faire capitalism, in which there is a complete separation of state and economics “in the same way and for the same reasons as the separation of church and state.”

      Rand said and wrote, “Objectivists are not ‘conservatives’.”

      “We are radicals for capitalism; we are fighting for that philosophical base which capitalism did not have and without which it was doomed to perish.”…