Bullet Train Is California’s Toga Party

The opportunity to build a high-speed rail line that would initially traverse a stretch of California desert and farmland is catnip to the state’s politicians and organized labor, if not to taxpayers. The $68 billion project would mean instant cash and jobs for a state that is verging on financial collapse. But does it make economic sense?  Maybe to someone on LSD.  As far as we’re concerned, the money would be better spent drilling oil wells in YMCA basements. The interest alone on $68 billion would probably suffice to provide limo service for any Californian needing to get from point A to point B.  And if one assumes that the eventual cost of this boondoggle will vastly exceed initial estimates, you could probably hire a part-time chauffeur for every working Californian on the interest the sum would generate.

Even now, it seems obvious that huge cost overruns are being cynically baked in-the-pie. The $10B initial round of financing would go toward the easiest part of the project:  building tracks and infrastructure for a 220mph train that would connect Merced and Bakersfield.  This would be a piece of cake politically and technologically, since there is little to impede the laying of  tracks between those cities.  The political sales pitch promises quite a bit more, though, envisioning as it does connections between Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento and some other sizable cities. Linking them supposedly would make the overall project economically viable, but as of yet there is not even a promise of funding for the crucial latter stages of the project.  Under the circumstances, it’s easy to imagine, ten years from now, a nasty and intractable squabble over the wisdom of throwing so much more good money after bad.

And in Colorado…

Here in Colorado, we have first-hand experience of Big Government’s increasingly desperate need to throw as much money as it can at unnecessary transportation projects. That, after all, is where unfathomably large quantities of money can be most easily absorbed into the economy. Washington has been trying to impose on certain Colorado neighborhoods a beltway link that would bring Denver sprawl into our back yards.  Never mind that an already-built stretch of the beltway is outlandishly expensive for users, costing $13 to drive just 22 miles from your editor’s home to the airport. That’s why the road is all but deserted most of the time.  Nevertheless, in their zeal to finish the loop, Colorado politicians attempted to pass a law that would have trashed home rule, allowing the state to condemn any structure or dwelling in their way.  Local opposition has been fierce, to put it mildly, and it remains to be seen whether the Highway Lobby, with unlimited funds and the backing of Obama’s edicts and bureaucratic goon squad, will prevail.  An ace-in-the-hole for the locals is that the beltway would need to pass through Rocky Flats, site of a defunct nuclear facility and toxic waste dump. Locals would prefer that the dust not be stirred up, but there are other environmental concerns as well that might easily have waylaid the project if the country were not mired in a Great Recession. In the meantime, don’t be surprised if The Government shows up in your town promising a trainload of highway dollars plucked from the Washington money tree. With any luck, you’ll be able to find much better uses for tens of billions of dollars than connecting Mudville to Hayseed via a 220 mph train.

***

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  • redwilldanaher July 20, 2012, 3:15 am

    Vlad baby, take a stress tab! Of course I know why, should have been more clear about it being rhetorical or directed towards Gary, really though that is redundant since we know he will not address realities.

  • mava July 19, 2012, 9:29 pm

    VLAD,

    I am Russian, but I can not understand the first sentence your response.
    I get a sense of what you want to say, but not exactly. Did you get lost in definitions…?

    The second sentence I understood perfectly. You can’t argue the facts, and so you claim instead that it is not worth responding.

    Well, suit yourself. I believe that there are folks on this forum who are looking for the truth only, and would drop any agenda given good facts against it.

  • Robert July 19, 2012, 6:02 pm

    Mark-

    I’m bearish, and I’ve made more money shorting long dated near the money puts over the past 2 years than I have with any other trade strategy.

    The only trick is to sell puts in underlying issues that you would actually WANT to own at the strike.

    And I can guaran-damn-tee that I would want to own October Gold at 1350.

    The problem is that to make real money on the trade, the margin requirement on such a position will ABSOLUTELY test your confidence in the power of your judgement.

    Everything about VLAD’s posting personna suggests that he wants everyone to believe he has a trading omnipotence similar to Phil Helmuth’s attitude at the poker table.

    Anyone with such a clear and uncluttered understanding of what the future holds would surely not care one iota about the amount of leverage necessary to underpin a sure-thing… yes?

  • Mark Uzick July 19, 2012, 8:17 am

    I wonder if VLAD can appreciate your wisdom, Robert.

    Only one thing puzzles me: If VLAD is bearish, then why would he sell puts and not calls, even if those puts are not above his predicted price, selling them is what a bull would do.

  • mava July 19, 2012, 4:30 am

    “Deflation is most easily recognized by its chief symptom, Vlad: an increase in the real burden of debt. RA”

    Again, RA, is deflation the only cause of this symptom?

    Let us recall what does it mean “an increase in the real burden of debt”.
    (correct me if I am wrong, I am not looking it up)
    What is burden? A burden is a maintenance cost.
    What is a burden of debt? It is the cost of servicing the debt.
    As applied to debt, the maintenance cost is the interest that needs to be paid to keep the debt unchanged.
    (Note: it is more or less often measured assuming interest and principal payments being the definition of a service. This varies,
    depending on the calculating party needs).
    Anyway, so we have:
    A burden of debt is measured by a metric called DSR, or, debt-to-service ratio (service, here means a payment of full interest).
    DSR shows what portion of the yearly income is needed to pay yearly interest on a given debt.

    Thus, if I owe 1 mil to the bank,
    while I make 100000 a year,
    under 10% interest yearly,
    then my yearly payment is 100000, or exactly my yearly income.
    Under this scenario, my DSR is 100%, because it takes my whole yearly income to just service the debt.

    Now, what is a “real burden of debt”? As far as I am aware, the real here means simply adjusted for increase/decrease of cost of living.
    This is typically (and purposefully) said as ” adjusted for inflation”, as if inflation/deflation had a direct relationship with a cost of living.
    This further assumes that the income in question is adjusted for that change in the cost of living!

    Example:

    If I owe 1 mil to the bank,
    while I am making 100,000 a year,
    under 10% interest rate,
    and so my yearly interest payment is therefore $100,000,
    then my DSR is 100% (it takes my full income to service the debt).

    However, in REAL-ity there was 10% increase in prices, and supposedly my employer adjusted my salary upwards 10% to compensate,
    then my income is 110,000, while my service is stuck at 100,000.

    Therefore:

    110 = 100%
    100 = x%

    Solving for x we have 10,000/110=90,(90)%

    My REAL DSR is now only 91% (roughly).

    Thus, it is easy to see that IF the deflation DOES result in DECREASE in prices, then this
    would have an effect of adjusting the salaries down (assumption), and as a result
    things will unfold in the direction opposite to that instanced above, and the REAL DSR,
    or the Real Burden of Debt would increase!

    Should we now be on the watch out for the change in the Real Burden of Debt, with a purpose
    to identify the deflation?

    Of course not. Because the deflation, first of all may not even result in the decrease of prices.
    Secondly, the income may not be adjusted down accordingly.
    Just these two considerations, already giving us 4 distinct scenarios, which means
    that in mathematical terms, the probability that the deflation was the cause of the observed
    increase of the real burden of debt is 0.25, or one-in-four.

    Even if one is a jealous defender of the deflation theory, he must concede that this is not the way to watch out for the deflation.

    And there are even more considerations, much more complicated in their nature, that too, add to the number of factors in that probability calculation above.

    So, is the deflation most easily recognized by its chief symptom, an increase in the real burden of debt?

    I, would not bet on it!

  • Mark Uzick July 19, 2012, 4:13 am

    Gary: You keep saying we are in a depression but this government keeps bailing the economy out with more spending. Now I ask you how in the world can you have BOTH? Either we are in a depression, or the government is keeping us out? Your pick.

    The state is bailing out its cronies – not the economy – hence, the plutocrats get richer and more powerful while the economy nosedives; real unemployment at levels only rarely seen during the great depression; a fake production statistic (GDP) propped up, not by production, but federal spending of worthless fake money; even though it’s propped up, GDP, in real terms, after subtracting the real rate of price inflation, drastically declining every year from at least the 2008 crash.

    There are punitive taxes and regulations driving enterprise out of this country or out of business; and unfunded liabilities that guarantee a massive default by either our bonds, our promises or devaluation of the perceived, but fake, value of the FRN.

    The country is corrupt from the bottom up; the economy is failing; and it’s bankrupt to boot. Gary sees wealth being squandered by New York bankers and civil servants living high and declares that the economy is humming along and all will be made well as soon as we squeeze the last drop of blood from those greedy entrepreneurs to be given to the fat cats.

  • mava July 19, 2012, 3:26 am

    Rich,
    I went and looked at that. The chart provides us with a record of declining velocity of money. Let us assume that the FRED is right and not doctoring the books, and that there is, in fact, the decline in the velocity of money.

    Why are you considering that to be an evidence of the deflation?

    Again, here I am arguing against the deflation supposedly taking place, and being defined in classical terms as a decline in the quantity of money.

    Why doesn’t FRED simply publishes the chart of the money supply, where we could see at least an alleged decline, instead of publishing an indicator that may be a consequence of the deflation, but not necessarily means that it’s cause was the deflation?

    If I say that for murder, one ends up being held in the jail, this would generally be true cause-effect relationship. However, what you doing is proposing that since there is a man in jail, he is necessarily there for a murder. The fall in velocity of money could, and most likely is simply a result of people making less money (lay-offs), and therefore making fewer purchases, and the subsequent iterations of that. No?
    You don’t think such is possible?

  • Chuck July 19, 2012, 2:10 am

    Common sense tells businesses to hold off on hiring until they see more ‘green shoots’….lmao. If people are in business to make money, and they see a need to hire more people in order to do so, well….DUH…they will hire them – and not until so. This little ‘business truth’ needs to be squelched and ‘spun’ to fit the needs of TPTB in guvment. Let’s see…..bond holders got screwed with GM in order to support unions….lowlifes using equity in their ill gotten houses as ATMs….need to be forgiven on principle…..I could go on and on….anyone see the pattern here? People wanting it both ways to suit their agenda……wait till the SHTF…….hope my money is actually worth more than s–t.

  • redwilldanaher July 19, 2012, 1:33 am

    Vote count last time, had audit bill passing easily but it failed. Why?

  • Robert July 19, 2012, 12:51 am

    “I still see a major goldprice shocking fast breakout off a 1-year huge goldprice chart triangle: a 75%down chance, IMO, down to $1350 area, give or take $25.”

    Everyone sees that pattern. How could something so obvious provide any intelligible trade insight?

    Gee, next could you tell me where the VIX (or the 30 year Treasury yield) is going…?

    Fact is: Gold has been caught in descending triangle pattern 4 times since the late 2008 lows, and each time when it broke, it broke to the upside…

    This time will be different why? Because there will be no QE from the Fed? Doesn’t that seem just a little too obvious?

    And, doesn’t the market ALWAYS punish most heavily those who bet on the most obvious move?

    So, are you aggressively selling the 1350 October Put?

  • Rusty July 18, 2012, 10:03 pm

    http://www.coinflation.com/coins/basemetal_calc.php a couple of years ago nickles were worth a little more than face. That is why I got them. 40% Kennedy Half’s won’t help in deflation imho.

  • Rusty July 18, 2012, 9:43 pm

    Thanks. I will look more.

  • Rusty July 18, 2012, 9:38 pm

    I am totally lost without a compass. Is anybody buying puts or calls? I am leaning toward puts. IBM earnings scare me for short.

    &&&&&

    Not yet, Rusty. My minimum target for the September E-Mini S&P is still 1386.25. RA

  • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 8:22 pm

    The verdict is just about in. Tech sector leading charge. Earnings are doing just fine and more importantly so are future expectations. Housing is doing what? A comeback of sorts? Nah. Rigged. This whole thing is rigged.

    Why even when I go out to eat and the average bill is over 100 bucks for 2 people, it must be a hologram I am looking into. How elses can you explain the place is packed. Riged I tell you. Everyone must be politicians eating here.

    While I expect all leading data points going forward to show surprise upward momentum I still see a market that looks suspect for the short term. It certainly looks like the street is no longer looking to Uncle Ben for another QE rescue.

    What ever happened to armageddon caused by the EU collapse. That too has been resolved for now, and pushed into the future.

    Oh well, I guess the crash of 2011 will have to wait at least another day.

    But hey, you can smile at the fact that you know these earnings are rigged and will disappear any day now. In fact Rush should be uncovering another “hidden” disaster on his next radio show.

    Seriously, I am getting worries that complacency has set and the market is riding upwards at a very linear smooth trajectory. I worry when things look too good. Perhaps there will be no major swings anymore.

    I should have re-entered the market by the beginning of the week, but will wait out till end of next week. My gut says we still have one more wash-out.

    • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 10:04 pm

      Yup utter crap. A rally for 2012 (or is that 11, or 10, or 09). A market that is not going to crash anytime soon. I must have missed that one. Look out below.
      My crap has so far come true. Yours had us under water for years and years. If it wasn’t for the world powers with absolute control over everything we would already be 90 percent lower. Heck clearly you must be right.

      BTW, let me know when you “really” see the big crash coming. I want to load up on Calls.

      I still find it peculiar that I have to defend one of the best 3 years in terms or REAL earnings, and a market that seems to appreciate that fact. You would have the market fall to new lows while earnings keep going higher. The only solution to your problem is to declare that earnings are a phantom. I-pads (phones) anyone? They must be going for a third the price given the fact no one can afford them.

      Wage growth has been stagnant this whole time yet offset by extremely low rates, ala low borrowing costs. Yet my notion that companies are hording that cash is silly since they are hiring temps at a rate that would suggest permanent jobs should be here. The argument that corporations are people too must be permeating thru this crown. They are compassionate and sensitive to the needs of their neighbors.

      Low wage growth, longer work hours, temps taking up the slack. – Corporate policies

      Huge wealth gains, lowest tax rate in many decades, tax cuts (subsidies), tax havens and loopholes, lower government payroll and expenditures, cuts in social programs. – Wealthiest Individuals policies

      These 2 policies are working just as expected.

      Class welfare?

  • Jill July 18, 2012, 8:09 pm

    Vlad, if you want my obsequiously fond feelings, a name change is unnecessary. You can see the secret to my affections in posts replying to mine by Gary, Rich, and Mario, for whom I also have fond feelings. They acknowledge me, and acknowlege others who may have differing views. They may even try to understand what brings others to have the views they have. They also seldom or never call anyone a moron etc.

    You may not want to join in my ideology though. I have a belief in respectful conversation, where no one calls anyone else a name, or hopes for ill to befall them, or assumes that if they have different ideas or beliefs, that that means they are stupid, evil, or a traitor. Not many people on this board believe in this ideology of respect with me– though I do have affection for those who do.

    The 24/7 Gladiator ideology of “Destroy the enemy– and everyone who does not agree with me is an enemy– seems to appeal to many folks on the Internet though. So if you like that approach, you will have plenty of company– although not much affection. The 24/7 Gladiator ideology does not create much affection.

    My affection for some folks is bugging Rick, as it usually has no tradable implications, so I may disappear for a while, out of respect for him and for the fact that it is his board. Wishing the best for you and everyone here.

    • Rick Ackerman July 19, 2012, 1:18 am

      It’s not your “affection” for others that is annoying, Jill, but your constant focus on the tone of the discussion rather than on the topic itself. You should stop treating this forum like a sensitivity workshop and join in the discussion rather than merely commenting on it.

  • D-Money July 18, 2012, 7:06 pm

    Got lost in reading the squabble above me, so here I go.

    I seem to remember a transcontinental railroad and a highway system being built within the last century – without any promise of a return to GDP. A new railway system? Would that not be another viable advance for transportation? Perhaps more people would ship via train or take vacations because it doesn’t take 8-10 hours to go a mere 300 miles up the coast of California. But, then again, who wants progress anyway.

    That’s my 2 cents on a $68B project.

    D

    • John Jay July 18, 2012, 9:51 pm

      D-money,
      Amtrak already offers rail service in California.
      Nothing direct LAX/SFO.
      LAX/OAK RT $126 11 hours each way
      Southwest Airlines offers:
      LAX/SFO RT $140 1 hour 15 minute flight.
      If $126 is the best they can do, after all the Amtrak subsidies, what will a 68 billion dollar bullet train fare cost after it zigs and zags LAX/SFO?
      We already have have ocean, rail, and truck freight service LAX/SFO.
      For 1 billion dollars you can buy 25 used Boeing 747s.
      Charge the market rate for cargo and passengers.
      Have a charter company supply flight crews and maintenance, no State employees needed.
      You should at least break even.
      And save 67 billion dollars to boot.
      The money for the bullet train will be stolen, and it will never see service after huge “Cost Over runs” mean it will be cancelled before completion.

  • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 6:25 pm

    I find my arguments usually hit the mainstream media with article that either support my view, or give hard datat points that make the same conclusions as I have. These are not biased blog sites.

    Rick,
    The “private sector refuses” to supply jobs. That is a true classic, Gary. Smith, Ricardo, Bastiat — everyone but Krugman, actually — would get some belly laughs from that one.

    Glad you found it funny. I guess the article I just read on Bloomberg must be written by Krugman himself. How else can you explain that they come to the same conclusions as I do. Record profits for 3 1/2 years. Low inventory buildup. Future expectations not falling hard. In fact they will probably beat the street in the next 2 quarters. Yet you think the problem is lack of economic clarity? A failed government policy that is reflected in corporate hiring?

    I believe my theory seems more logical than yours. Thats like blaming the government policies for social programs geared to the middle class and poor while the wealthiest are reaping profits like never before in history. Can you deny the profits seen over this very long period of time? You can of course dismiss my conclusions, but unless you come up with another one, there is no debate.

  • Rich July 18, 2012, 5:04 pm

    Mava, here’s some evidence of monetary deflation, a new low for monetary velocity (the ratio of GDP to Money Supply):

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV?cid=32242

    BB pushed on gas pedal, but the transmission’s shot.

    May see a market selloff as he says as much again his second day in Congress…

  • Jill July 18, 2012, 3:32 pm

    It is interesting. I have seen so many of these “discussions” of politics on the Internet. People have basic underlying assumptions that they take for granted, so no one even realizes they disagree on these

    E.g. is political discussion a way to try to understand one another’s views and ideas, regardless of whether one agrees with the other or not? Or is it a cutthroat competitive struggle where one tries to defeat and humiliate an opponent and to prove them wrong/evil/a traitor, if they disagree with you?

    Is “discussion” a way of bonding with those of your own ideology for the purpose of verbally destroying those who disagree? Or is it a respectful discussion where you might learn from someone who doesn’t see eye to eye with you?

    • Mark Uzick July 18, 2012, 4:10 pm

      Evasive replies are not engaging in discussions or debates – they amount to dogmatic rants while wearing earplugs and blinders. Just because someone is repetitive, boring and low key doesn’t indicate that he’s reasonable or open minded – merely timid, evasive and simplistic.

      I don’t like it any more than you do when people attack Gary for his stock market predictions – they’re as plausible as anyone elses’. Obviously they’re, reading into them unwarranted assumptions about his extreme fascist ideology, but only because they already know about that. I didn’t; but now I do, so I have more sympathy for where that hostility, so inexplicable to me, was coming from, even though I still don’t approve of it.

    • redwilldanaher July 18, 2012, 6:20 pm

      I like your first paragraph Mark. I tend to disagree with the second.

      Gary’s predictions aren’t the issue for most. It is the way in which he presents it as happening organically all the while omitting critical pieces of information and dismissing the corruption etc. That’s what gets to most people here @ Rick’s forum IMO.

      Take his housing BS just above. He focuses on the superficial as MSLSD or NBC or Marketwatch would when the likelihood is that he knows better, as in, that the latest scam between the government and their masters at the banks just opened the door for another massive wave of foreclosures. Think that could impact “the recovery”.

      He also supports arresting the natural process of capitalism when the destructive/corrective side holds sway even though any sober adult person knows that history has shown nearly every time that central planning and stalling only worsens the eventual fallout.

      He’s actually cheering for his masters to hold the invisible prison intact so he can continue to enjoy its cold comforts.

      Rick pegged Jill too with his “obsequious” description for the record…

  • Jill July 18, 2012, 2:53 pm

    LOL, Mark, since no one in the history of the Internet has ever changed their mind on a political issue, due to a message board conversation, perhaps it is just as well that you refuse to state and discuss relevant facts.

    Saying to someone that “you must have seen” these facts, though, assumes that others can read your mind, which is not case. There are tons of facts and pretend facts all over the Internet. No one has seen them all.

    • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 3:20 pm

      I was hoping for someone to tell me that these facts are true but my conclusions are wrong based on specific ideas.

      To lynch blacks during the civil war simply because people were fed up with conscription makes as much sense as asking for less government, tax breaks for the very rich, less social welfare, and placing blame on unions, pensions, and illegals for our troubles.

      It is however a great scapegoat. Blaming the powerless does give one some satisfaction.

    • Mark Uzick July 18, 2012, 3:42 pm

      Not true Jill: I was referring to reasons that I stated and to which Gary was supposedly replying; yet he didn’t address a single thing I said. It’s obvious to anyone who can read that Gary is evasive about any facts or explanations that don’t fit his preconceptions. He displays an extreme example of cognitive dissonance.

      How about you, Jill? Tell me what you think of his reply to this exchange; and then tell me what I refused to discuss. Then, to prove that you’re not biased, it will be interesting to see if you direct your reply to Gary – the proper recipient of your wrath:
      __________________________________
      Gary: “Has anyone asked why the private sector hasn’t reverted back to empoying workers as opposed to increasing their responsibiliies and hours, while keeping the increased profits?”

      Yes: both asked and answered:

      Because we’re in a depression, but Mal-investment hasn’t been allowed to be liquidated. We keep bailing out and or stimulating established interests, state agencies and state contractors – hence the fat artificial profits – while stripping savers of their wealth and strangulating entrepreneurship and productive enterprises with regulations and taxes.

      Have you bothered asking yourself why? Have you concluded that we’re not socialist/fascist enough yet? I know you’re not worried; if all else fails, your side still has one more Keynesian trick up their sleeve: War – it always solves everything – doesn’t it? But it’s all for caring and compassion for “the little guy”, so how can you go wrong?

    • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 5:51 pm

      How do I answer this? Because we are in a depression? Record profit, real tangible profits that come from consumers. Have you ever been to a restaurant lately? The restaurant industry went up 10 fold over the last decade and they are still doing well. AAPL has very expensive products. Is it only bought by the very wealthy? Give me a break!

      Hey I just read an atricle in Bloombergs that headline “Temporary Work Demand Rises As Companies Avoid Commitments: JOBS”. It concludes that the Obamacare is one reason but also states that while the rise in temps usually translates to future permanent hire, this time might be different. Gee, ya thing! Their conclusions are exactly in line with mine. Low costs. Bottom line, they like the profit margins and will not give it up. It’s like the top one percent of the population. Why give back anything since the time is ripe for even greater profits. Imagine any goup, lets say unions, getting a 4 fold increase in wages over the last 10 years. Now image they demand even greater pay. What do you KNOW the public opinion would be? Times up. Yet, here we are with the lean and mean corporations and wealthiest individuals treating this situation like it is their right.

      Have you seen the housing data that has clearly shown progressive momentum.

      You keep saying we are in a depression but this government keeps bailing the economy out with more spending. Now I ask you how in the world can you have BOTH? Either we are in a depression, or the government is keeping us out? Your pick.

  • Mark Uzick July 18, 2012, 10:50 am

    Gary: So the correlation between high corporate profits and consumer’s strapped for cash and wages is not there?

    It’s there and I explained why.

    The correlation between the start of a depression and the highest point of disparity between the rich and poor is just another coincidence?

    It’s no coincidence at all, but the reasons don’t corroborate with your statist indoctrination, so you just ignore them.

    Finally, in this dire situation, that most here feel we have entered, why is there still insistance that the rich take even more of the pie? Bizarre.

    But it’s you who demands policies that ensure precisely that.

    If I have my facts wrong, or you can explain that my conclusions are not related to these facts I would love to hear them.

    You must have seen them, but since they don’t fit your paradigm, you won’t hear them.

  • mava July 18, 2012, 4:05 am

    Yeah, I’ve read that. Even went as far as to read several articles on the author’s web site, http://www.deflation.com , because I just could not find any deflation in his writings.

    He states in the linked article that he prefers the definition of deflation being that the deflation is a decline in the overall supply of money and credit.

    Ok. But, then he bubbles around, stating disconnected facts of economic metrics and provides no evidence that the overall supply of money and credit has in fact, declined! Several articles that I have read on his site, provide no such proof, either.

    The way this author reasons is simple, and is akin to how primitive people would reason. If the God was mad, then the weather would be bad. Since the weather is, in fact, mad, then that is the proof that the God is in fact, mad!

    He mentions anything and everything, but how about simply concentrating on showing that the overall supply of money and credit is declining?

    I have attempted to show, in a previous thread, that the defaults, in fact, if one cares to check, do not result in deflation.
    http://www.rickackerman.com/2012/07/europe-cant-inflate-the-world/#comment-41342

    I wish the deflationistas were just as direct in attempting to show their own case.

    &&&&&&

    Deflation is most easily recognized by its chief symptom, Vlad: an increase in the real burden of debt. RA

  • redwilldanaher July 18, 2012, 2:13 am

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-16/hsbc-aided-money-laundering-by-iran-drug-cartels-probe-shows.html

    Everything is clean Gary. Governments are benevolent and so are corporates. Look at PE’s!

    • redwilldanaher July 18, 2012, 2:58 am

      (NaturalNews) GlaxoSmithKline employee and whistleblower Blair Hamrick has helped make medical history. Together with his colleague Gregory Thorpe, Blair blew the whistle on criminal practices taking place inside GlaxoSmithKline which have now led to the largest criminal admission and financial settlement in the history of western medicine. GSK is paying a $3 billion fine while pleading guilty to felony crimes. (http://www.naturalnews.com/036416_GlaxoSmithKline_fraud_criminal_char…).

      Blair recently joined Mike Adams on the Health Ranger Report for a video interview. In this astonishing interview, Blair describes his firsthand knowledge of the “bribery” of physicians, the push for off-label marketing of drugs for unapproved health conditions, the illegal marketing of drugs to children, how 80 percent of physicians were willing to be “on the take,” and other astonishing details from behind the scenes of the criminally-operated medical mafia known as Big Pharma.

    • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 3:09 pm

      This type of thing happens all the time, especially nearing a market top. It is usually when their influence allows either a reversal in restrictions, or one where it is not enforced.

      I never said their wasn’t corruption. You love to twist my worlds. I stated that governments do not intentionally do evil against it’s citizens. There is and will always be corruption in all sectors of our economy. The ones that receive a monopolistic advantage usually receive the most power, influence, and corruption. Thats the nature of the beast.

      That is why I have advanced the idea of MORE true enforceable laws that prevent these types of abuses. Not a position most here agree with. So I guess less government will mean more corruption, but less taxpayer dollars. I guess you can look at it on the bright side. At least when we get fleeced it isn’t coming out of more of your hard earned money.

      Has anyone noticed how money always flows to the top during dramatic upheavals? I find it amazing that at times like this Romney has a chance to get elected when he is the shining symbol of class warfare.
      25 million+ in an IRA account? Offshore accounts, made his money raiding and disbanding companies, outsourced jobs, dismall record as governor, railing against Obamacare that was based on his policy as governor.

      We are in the middle of the biggest squeeze against the middle class since the 30’s and here we are endorsing billionares, tax welfare for the super rich, disbanding of government social programs for poor and middle class. Call me crazy but something is amiss.

    • Rich July 18, 2012, 6:18 pm

      RWD:

      First response disappeared, so will reconstruct from memory.

      FDA just announced Feb approval of first diet drug in a decade and VVUS is up 17% today with a combo amphetamine/epilepsy product called Qsymia, despite FDA denial in 201o for “potential for dangerous heart problems, birth defects and cognitive effects such as mental fogginess or lack of concentration in patients taking the drug. ”

      Not to fear, there is Teva’s Viagra for the Brain, Provigil, soon to be a generic or replaced with Nuvigil, with side effects including: “allergy/rash affecting blood cells and liver, heart or psychiatric problems, headache, nausea, feeling nervous, stuffy nose, diarrhea, back pain, feeling anxious, trouble sleeping, dizziness, and upset stomach.”

      Seems like each prescription drug may begat a chain reaction cascade for more prescription drugs, better than alcohol or tobacco addictions.

      Not everyone remembers Bill (Levingston) Rockefeller was a bigamist cancer cure snake oil salesman whose crude oil ingredient for ‘Rock Oil’ was monopolized by his son:

      http://www.corbettreport.com/meet-william-rockefeller-snake-oil-salesman/

  • Rich July 17, 2012, 10:39 pm

    Took the current High Speed Amtrak Rail from Bakersfield to Stockton at 79 mph through Ag Central Valley fields and towns. It was crowded for a weekday. Bus connections from LAX and to TRU were not fun…

  • Jill July 17, 2012, 10:20 pm

    Good for you, Rich!

    Do let us know if you ever change your mind about the 2000 point Dow rally coming up longer term– I suppose if it happened it would come after QE3, whenever that is.

    &&&&&*

    ….and Jill, please do let us know if your obsequiously fond feelings toward Gary and Rich change, since that could have tradable implications.
    RA

    • Rich July 17, 2012, 10:51 pm

      Thanks Jill.
      Unsure re QE III; could cause US food and fuel riots with predator drones like Terminator.
      SPX still targeting 1550 and INDU targeting 13,200 after 10,404.49 low last October.
      Between now and this October could be a very scary Valley of the Shadow of Death, with one or both targets flipping down, since Big4 short Dow and RUT.
      Click on name/subscribe to Overnight Options to make more, with share going to Rick for his excellent calls, comments and site and general excellence.

      Vlad at the Grove?…

    • gary leibowitz July 18, 2012, 2:44 pm

      Damn, I see the same possibility. I was hoping for a low by end of this month which would have set up for a big rally. If it is the highs than we could be in for some whipshaw moves till October.

  • Rich July 17, 2012, 10:10 pm

    As of market close, Options Overnight Account up +183% in July 2012…

  • Jill July 17, 2012, 10:08 pm

    Thanks for your 2 cents, BC. I enjoy reading different opinions.

    Well, I see INTC cut revenue forecasts. So,if that leads to a down tomorrow, maybe Rich was right to go short today– if he still is short. He is in and out so quickly that he may not be short any more now, for all I know.

  • bc July 17, 2012, 10:03 pm

    My two cents. California is Spain. August will be a gap down month just like last year. Financials will implode soon because for the life of me I can’t see how they make payroll let alone profits. REITS, banks, money market funds, and bond funds included.

    • Rich July 18, 2012, 5:22 pm

      So far tax hikes with benefit cuts have not hit CA like Spain.
      Soon.
      CA and other states borrowed to fund $900 B of underfunded pensions.

      CALPERS lowered performance assumptions to 7.5%.

      Pasadena issued 1.76% Pension Bonds to fund an assumed 6% Fire and Police benefit.

      7.5% or 6% returns are not available even in the Phantom Zone.

      TYX is 2.585% and Stocks are below where they were in 2000.

      Houston we have a train wreck ahead on the institutional investment train tracks.

      No wonder the almighty buck is targeting 100…

      http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-05-10/states-borrow-to-cover-pension-fund-shortfalls

  • Jill July 17, 2012, 9:29 pm

    Gary, didn’t your Mama teach you not to feed the trolls, LOL? Those people who feel free to insult everyone of some particular ideology or party are not open to facts, or even to paying attention to differing views, or to courteously agreeeing to disagree. It’s not in their nature.

    • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 9:41 pm

      My frustration isn’t really towards anyone in particular. Kind of hard to place blame when I was once sitting right there with them. Human nature has some pretty ancient roots, if you believe in the Darwin theory of evolution.

      There are many theories on how we fixate onto an idea or ideology with total abandon. I am still trying to understand my own catharsis.

      I have no illusions that my theory on this economic stategy could be wrong. I just don’t like the idea of locking into a position with such fanaticism.

  • Chuck July 17, 2012, 9:06 pm

    Dems (Gary et al) would have it both ways….bailing out the rich 1% banksters and then complaining about why the rich are getting richer still. Hypocrites all of them….I also don’t hear them complaining about the war(s) now that they are in charge….spinmeisters.

    • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 9:22 pm

      Bail out is of necessity. Like I stated before no one will decapitate the problem in order to fix it. Too painful and too politically damaging.

      The 2 facts I stated previously haven’t been addressed. Are they wrong? Does my conclusions reached have no connection to these 2 facts?

      The largest disparity between the haves and have nots are at a major economic turn from prosperity to dispair. Corporations and wealthy individuals today have never seen it so good. Why is there no blame put on them?

      Once again this reminds me of the only major riots we had in New York. That was during the Civil War where people decided to ignore the lottery drawing for enlisting up. Land owners and people of wealth were allowed to pay out of the system. The natural backlash wa to blame the blacks of course. Lynching to be precise. Does anyone see a correlation with today’s problems?

  • Jill July 17, 2012, 8:59 pm

    Good to see you back and hear more of your thoughts, Gary. Looks like you are looking for that same big Dow rally that Rich is looking for, if he still is. If he is, someone is on your side here. And I wouldn’t be surprise, if/when we get QE 3, to see a big rise either.

    Rich, Congrats. Wish I were quick enough to follow your good trades. You’re very fast in and out. Keep us all posted about whether you change your mind or not about that 2000 point Dow rally. I know you are short now again, but it looks like you trade very short term; last time you got short, I didn’t have time to turn around before you were out of the position.

    • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 9:10 pm

      Actually I also expect a drawback. Today should be a terminal move of some sorts. I give kudos to Rick for his track record of not only picking the right side of the move, but for getting the timing pretty darn good. He is off on this one, but I suspect he will be able to recoup the loses, if he didn’t already drop the trade.

    • Jill July 17, 2012, 9:24 pm

      Gary, I am talking about Rich, another commenter, not Rick. Rich expects a 2000 point rally in the Dow, or he did a day or 2 ago, but he said above that he is short now

    • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 9:29 pm

      Sorry I meant to say RICH also.
      I still see another drawback before we have enough steam to hit that big rally mode.

    • Rich July 18, 2012, 5:07 pm

      Thanks Gary.
      Accumulating DIA August puts in small batches with enough time to make some money…

  • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 8:32 pm

    And I thought the crash already happened this summer. I find it amusing that for 7 months now I proposed a bullish scenario for stocks and I am still ridiculed for not understanding the way the system works, or how the economy is drowning.

    In fact it’s 4 years and counting, 3 of which I was siding with you. Either the last 4 years is an illusion or your premise is wrong. You can’t be right after 4 years of having the markets resist your assumptions. You call it tricks and manipulations and I call it common sense. Your idea of manipulation is only when the governments don’t concede all is lost and act accordingly. I call what they did and continue to do the only choice left to them. No one in charge would ever decide to decapitate the weak and start fresh.

    You will eventually get your wish. I suspect whenever that is your notion of always being right will once again surface with full force. You already missed out on a doubling of the indices. That would mean the market would have to crash 50 percent jusdt to break even.

    • redwilldanaher July 17, 2012, 8:57 pm

      Right Gary. Because manipulated bubbles by definition can only last “x” number of years! Not only have you not learned from history, but you have ignored even recent history that unfolded on your watch. More and more of the complete corruption is revealed nearly every day but you refuse to see it or acknowledge it.

  • Jacques Redou July 17, 2012, 7:32 pm

    -68 billion bullet train in California?
    -Makes perfect sense.
    -Hire a Chinese Contractor and Specify Chinese Labor.
    -(Chinese have prior railroad experience in USA)
    -Pay them in dollars which can be printed for free.
    -The dollars then buy US Treasury bonds and get deposited to US Treasury then go out as checks to
    out of work Americans.
    -Chinese trade Treasuries for raw materials to build more bullet trains in USA.
    -Everybody happy.

    • Rich July 18, 2012, 4:54 pm

      Now when and where have we seen this Chinese Coolie scenario before, LOL?

      Ah yes, the 4 Golden Spike(s) in Promontory, UT in 1869 driven by Leland Stanford. Two were alloys and one a silver spike:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_spike

  • Rich July 17, 2012, 7:17 pm

    Big4 are short Dow and RUT…

    • Rich July 17, 2012, 11:17 pm

      Thanks Vlad. Welcome back.

      Big4 the largest four weekly reporting positions on CFTC COT, contrarian fundamentalists because of their Blue Whale size with “inside” information.

      Ran Weekly Big4 Asset Allocation and TopTen Quarterly Emerging Growth Portfolio Subscriptions to put them to the test with Point and Figure Charts.

      Result: performance over 1000% each of three years for both portfolios.

      Gave the Big4 Presentation the weekend of Fukushima at TSAASF to full house at Golden Gate Graduate Business School, thanks to Larry and Rick, who spoke there with twin DRJ Jon Najarian, Berkeley grad, Chicago Bears Linebacker, who traded Options in the CBOE pits 25 years and founded OptionMonster.com:

      http://www.tsaasf.org/rich-cash_s-march-19-presentation-big-4-heisenberg-trends_-profiting-smart-

      Decided to trade own options portfolio this July after US Nevada Senate Race to keep busy and free.

      So far, so good:

      All trades, held overnight to a week, profitable, ranging from +7% to +125%.

      (No guarantee of future results, maybe better.)

      Update blog friends re calls/put positions as a professional courtesy, but trade specifics are for subscribers, who have one-year money back subscription guarantees on the market price ideas.

      So far in four years no one needed their money back.

      (That could change or not.)

      Regards…

    • Rich July 17, 2012, 11:18 pm

      Twin Pete Najarian is a frequent guest on CNBC Fast$, sometimes with Jon calling in…

  • Dave Donnelly July 17, 2012, 6:52 pm

    Rick, which one is Bakersfield? Mudville or Hayseed? I can’t wait to hop on the “High Speed” (maybe 100mph BTW) to zip up to Mudville for a little vacation. Ha! Us Bakersfield natives get to ride that puppy first! If we are still alive when it actually get’s to moving. I just hope they can redirect it to Vegas instead. Might be worthwhile then. Cheers Dave.

    • John Jay July 17, 2012, 7:25 pm

      Dave,
      I am not certain about this of course, however……..
      With the strange, non direct, routing for the proposed high speed rail tracks……….
      I wonder how many politicians and FOPs have bought up property on the right of way for peanuts with advanced knowledge of the off the wall routing.
      Diogenes and Lot combined could not find a righteous or honest public official on this planet.

  • Jason July 17, 2012, 6:51 pm

    $68 billion? HAHAHAHA… I think we are currently at $99 billion and climbing. California is a dumpster fire ready to become the Towering Inferno!
    http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/03/30/2782610/california-high-speed-rail-estimate.html

    • BigTom July 17, 2012, 7:33 pm

      Dumpster fire? LOL That is a good one and am still laughing…..All eyes now are focused on the LIBOR scandal, and as the public clammors for the destruction of the bankers and the banking system, so goes society in the way of californias ‘dumpster fire!’ “It will be done upon them which they demand”. Don’t lood for that anywhere, I just made it up….It’s sad, but I still can’t help laughing at your analogy…

  • C.C. July 17, 2012, 5:56 pm

    The California high speed rail project provides several platforms for which politicians can grandstand:

    – Jobs

    – Energy savings

    – Prestige

    – ‘Leadership’

    – ‘Diversion’

    Not that any have real economic benefit – or even truth to them, but they make for palatable consumption by a dumbed-down electorate – the last item being the most tasty, as it has good mouthfeel and goes down easy.

  • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 5:44 pm

    I agree it is another example of government inefficiencies and cost overrun. It is however a way for governments to supply jobs where the private sector refuses to do. I don’t understand the mentality of focusing or diverting blame for our problems away from the core reasons. Over spending is a real problem, and with it should be a realistic evaluation of where we can cut costs and increase revenue without hurting the middle class. There is absolutely no one that disputes the government data that shows the extreme increase in wealth for the top one percent over the last decade. There is also no argument that corporations are reaping huge profits while the wage and employment component is at extreme lows.

    If I was to try and fix the current situation I would focus on those two components. It can have grerat immediate impact to both the deficit and employment.

    Has anyone asked why the private sector hasn’t reverted back to empoying workers as opposed to increasing their responsibiliies and hours, while keeping the increased profits?

    Has anyone asked why the very successful tax cuts for the wealthy should still be in effect while the middle class is suffering and taking the brunt of the economic calamity?

    So while I agree with the notion that this government is not efficient and uses these projects as an attempt to stimulate the economy, unfortunately we have nothing else to fall back on.

    BTW, I am still expecting another fall before the real rally takes hold. I could be wrong but I still don’t see the rally taking hold from here. In fact if this rally takes traction till the end of the month, I would view it as a negative. If it corrects till the end of the month I would be back in the bull camp.

    • Rick Ackerman July 17, 2012, 6:13 pm

      The “private sector refuses” to supply jobs. That is a true classic, Gary. Smith, Ricardo, Bastiat — everyone but Krugman, actually — would get some belly laughs from that one.

    • Mark Uzick July 17, 2012, 6:20 pm

      Gary: I agree it is another example of government inefficiencies and cost overrun. It is however a way for governments to supply jobs where the private sector refuses to do. I don’t understand the mentality of focusing or diverting blame for our problems away from the core reasons.

      You’re contradicting yourself. This is an example of “speaking out of both sides of your mouth”.

      Gary: Has anyone asked why the private sector hasn’t reverted back to empoying workers as opposed to increasing their responsibiliies and hours, while keeping the increased profits?

      Yes: both asked and answered:

      Because we’re in a depression, but Mal-investment hasn’t been allowed to be liquidated. We keep bailing out and or stimulating established interests, state agencies and state contractors – hence the fat artificial profits – while stripping savers of their wealth and strangulating entrepreneurship and productive enterprises with regulations and taxes.

      Have you bothered asking yourself why? Have you concluded that we’re not socialist/fascist enough yet? I know you’re not worried; if all else fails, your side still has one more Keynesian trick up their sleeve: War – it always solves everything – doesn’t it? But it’s all for caring and compassion for “the little guy”, so how can you go wrong?

    • gary leibowitz July 17, 2012, 8:20 pm

      So the correlation between high corporate profits and consumer’s strapped for cash and wages is not there?

      The correlation between the start of a depression and the highest point of disparity between the rich and poor is just another coincidence?

      The money shift to the very top is glaring. please explain this away.

      You draw your own conclusion but these two facts are indisputable.

      Finally, in this dire situation, that most here feel we have entered, why is there still insistance that the rich take even more of the pie? Bizarre.

      If I have my facts wrong, or you can explain that my conclusions are not related to these facts I would love to hear them.

      Let the forum begin!

    • redwilldanaher July 17, 2012, 8:52 pm

      Go class warrior Gary, Go!

      Why not rally other like-minded statists Gary and break every window that you all can? We’ll all get rich repairing them!

      Just let me know when you plan to hold the glass breaking rally so I can corner the market on sand first…

    • Scottar July 18, 2012, 10:03 am

      In California you got some real moombeams, It must be due to some strong lobbyists of the unions and private ventures. It’s why California is going broke. In my own state in Albuquerque, the voters got conned with the Rail runner, a Bill Richardson production that has become a 20 million annual sinkhole, all in the name of fighting global warming and getting some political recognition.

      It due to increasing cronyism in government and high repressive taxes that the middle class businesses get stuck with while big corps seek tax shelters and loop holes to avoid the highest taxes in the world. How do you expect businesses to compete against overseas- low wages, little overhead and lax enviro regs?

      So average businesses can’t afford to expand do to all the repressive red tape government imposes to ‘make it fair’. The answer to start off with is reducing the size of the intrusive federal government and simplifying the tax code. next start on reducing the influence of K street. I would like to see an amendment that all congressmen and federal workers have the same retirement and health care system to rest of us peons do, then maybe you’ll see some real change. Our government is currently the best one money can buy, the taxpayers that is. It’s the best one that can con the voters into buying it’s rhetoric and constant scams.

      And finally, the private sector always seems to find the best efficient way to accomplish things, but the sheeple seem to be too stupid to determine what works best and they thing big government can chose the best for them. So then get hoodwinked and scammed into unsustainable systems that appear to look good to the ignorant, brainwashed newbees who came out of a corrupted educational system.

      And then there’s those who think the entitlement marry-go-round will never stop, never end. Oh it’s the GOP just trying to scare us into giving up our entitled freebees. Like the parents who make the mistake of giving their precious college kid a credit card who then proceeds to think it’s a magic, endless, party time card. They didn’t believe the parents admonishment to use it wisely and frugally, just not been taught in their vocabulary.

  • Robert July 17, 2012, 5:25 pm

    Superman called….

    He said you can’t afford to build Metropolis.

    I think the only thing missing to this story is that California hasn’t (yet) announced that the person leading this project goes by the last name of Taggert.

  • Bam_Man July 17, 2012, 5:12 pm

    By the time it’s finished at double the initial cost estimates and fully staffed with gubbermint-approved, unionized labor, I can imagine the one-way fare from Merced to Bakersfield being around $399.

  • Tom Nacey July 17, 2012, 4:35 pm

    Rick,
    Here is a classic clip from the Simpsons extolling the virtues of public works projects like the MONORAIL.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrjL-X_Q6xA

    • Rich July 17, 2012, 10:56 pm

      LTS:
      Bart: “The Mob has spoken”…

  • Rich July 17, 2012, 4:08 pm

    Took +64% profits on SPY Jul calls near opening.
    Bot DIA Aug puts:
    http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/rich-cash-overnight-options.html

    • Rich July 18, 2012, 8:23 pm

      In retrospect, day early per Rick’s bullish correct calls.
      Accumulated some more puts today at better prices.
      One nice thing about cash options is no margin calls and limited risk, so long as they are held less than a week to reduce Theta time-decay…

  • fallingman July 17, 2012, 3:19 pm

    “Maybe to someone on LSD.”

    Nice.

  • nadia July 17, 2012, 3:02 pm

    it make sense, it’s a Glass-Steagall, stupid

  • mario cavolo July 17, 2012, 11:22 am

    hey hey boys and girls, corn and wheat selling off….

    • Rick Ackerman July 17, 2012, 6:09 pm

      Tout for today, fyi, December Corn:

      The hottest, driest, crop killing-est summer since, practically, the Big Bang has sent corn prices into a parabola. Is rain and cooler weather in the cards? Could be. Look at the accompanying chart and you’ll see that, from a Hidden Pivot perspective, this is a logical spot for the bull run to sputter out. Accordingly, camouflageurs are encouraged to short this monster using downtrending abc patterns on charts of 5-minute degree or less. If you fill and survive for a full day, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

  • ebear July 17, 2012, 9:47 am

    To be honest, if you gave me a choice between high speed rail from LA to SF and flying out of LAX to same, I’d take the train hands down. LAX scares the hell out of me, and the congestion will only get worse in the years ahead.

    Besides….

    If it’s true that we’re facing a future liquid fuels shortage (peak oil) then electric trains make sense on short to intermediate hauls. How you generate the power is another question of course, but I imagine thorium reactors (probably based in Mexico…heh) would be one possibility. Or you could burn coal. Lots of that in Utah and Wyoming.

    • Mark Uzick July 17, 2012, 1:49 pm

      While regular rail, when fully utilized, is fuel efficient, high speed rail, because energy is proportional to the square of velocity, is extremely wasteful from an energy consumption standpoint. Not that I care, but high speed rail is not green.

      I have no problem with people using extra energy to save time, as long as they are willing to pay the full cost. Unfortunately, the true cost of high speed rail, if the users actually had to pay for it, is ridiculously noncompetitive in most proposed rail corridors.

  • martin schnell July 17, 2012, 3:50 am

    According to a Spanish documentary I was watching Spain has the second most high speed rail tracks in the world, after China. But the bill was only $68 billion in total (unless my Spanish is not very good). The problem is that they have far fewer people suing it than in say Japan or Germany or France. Spain also has the most airports in Europe (commercial travel) with 55 versus only 18 in Germany. Many have only a flight or two a day … or a week. An infrastructure overbuilding to the extreme. the again you can often fly internationally in Europe for less than what it cost you to get to the airport.

    • Robert July 17, 2012, 5:29 pm

      Martin-

      does your Spanish example not demonstrate perfectly the exact types of economic dislocations that occur when the manipulated cost of credit distorts the proper and useful allocation of capital?

      I think so…

      Am I surprised California is endeavoring to be more like Spain? Nope.

  • mava July 17, 2012, 3:45 am

    Hey, there are enormous opportunities to steal, in these enormous projects! Who is going to say no to that? Which politician, is going to refuse a private cut to an offshore account, a cut that covers his yearly salary at least a hundred times over. Would you?

    This has never been about the train or even the need to spend money (allegedly) to “help” the economy. You must remember that the whole “science” of Keynesian Economics was invented on order, to provide a theoretical necessity for establishing a financial regime that is very conductive to a theft.

    If you think it is not so, then you must necessarily believe that either the people who are fooling you every second any day for years are actually idiots, or you must believe in magic (Keynesian Economics)!

    Every single project in a fiat regime is started first by searching for a new or well forgotten cause that can be used to commit a large theft. Nothing else matters, as long as it doesn’t stop the project.

  • John Jay July 17, 2012, 2:44 am

    California spent 500 million dollars just on “studies” for the “Bullet Train”. Just an excuse to give away money to the friends of politicians. I read older used Boeing 747s that are not fuel efficient are going for about 40 million dollars. For a fraction of what will be wasted on this fiasco, California could pay cash for a fleet of 747s for LAX/SFO shuttle service. For anything under 250 miles it is easier to just drive on your own schedule. The billions will all be stolen, and the train will never get built. Situation, normal. PS, the two California Pension funds both returned sub 2% last year. As in, not the 7.5% assumed. More of the same.

    • mario cavolo July 17, 2012, 8:26 am

      That’s a great point JJ, in fact I remember an acquaintance when I was living in LA who had done just that; they started up a charter airline for the tourist flights between LA and Mexico and they bought used Boeings for 40 mil to do it, just like you said…don’t know the rest of the story….:)

      Cheers, Mario

  • mario July 17, 2012, 1:13 am

    Couldn’t come up with a better word than boondoggle except perhaps Clint Eastwood’s famous reference..:) …. Back in the day, the European and U.S. infrastructure was built on he backs of slaves and cheap labor. Ditto across China today as it has built out its buildings, roads, railway and subway infrastructures on low wages ….couldn’t be doing it if they had to pay the workers ten to twenty times higher wages. I assume labor cost is a fairly big chunk of the 68 billion figure…?

    I attended a big amcham lunch event with the Guvernator himself here in Shanghai a cpl years back, he was looking for funding for this pet project nightmare…obviously he didn’t get it but he still said “I’ll be back.” 🙂 …

    Cheers, Mario

    • Rick Ackerman July 17, 2012, 1:27 am

      China’s toga party has taken the form recently of a decision to vastly expand steel capacity despite a global glut. This beats a bullet train to nowhere, I suppose, but it’s going to impose a lot of deflationary weight on the world if and when the economy emerges from the Second Great Depression.

    • mario cavolo July 17, 2012, 8:41 am

      Indeed Rick, I checked out the Reuter’s release…”Excess capacity is seen at 110 million tons this year, around 14 percent of the total. This will mean margins, an already thin 3 percent in 2011 and only half of the 6 percent average for other industrial sectors, will continue to be squeezed.”

      Continued expansive of subways, auto manufacturing, building of more commercial malls indicate strong need but as the article points out, the steel industry in particular is right under the thumb of the central govt so market reality is nowhere to be seen…Cheers, Mario