Join Us as We Short Every Stupid Rally

Evidence continues to accumulate that the Mother of All Bear Rallies begun in March of 2009 may have breathed its last. Yesterday, for instance, the all-news-is-good-news shtick so beloved on Wall Street laid an egg when markets around the world shrugged following Greek voters’ decision to stick with the euro. Ordinarily, Asian and European markets wouldn’t even have waited to breathe a sigh of relief before putting a death-lock on the cahones of traders reckless enough to have gone home short over the weekend. What we got instead of the obligatory short-squeeze was feeble rallies around the world, culminating with a reversal on the NYSE Monday that left the Dow Industrials 25 points lower.  Worse yet, the news media quickly buried the story from Greece on the inside pages, focusing instead on how Spain’s borrowing costs have shot into the red zone above 7% once again. To put this in perspective, most hedge funds aren’t returning anything close to 7% these days. Imagine having to pay lenders that much just to cover fixed expenses.

Another sign that stocks have returned to Kansas after more than three years in Oz is that bellwether Apple’s shares have looked punk ever since the stock hit an all-time high at $644 in mid-April. Minor rally cycles are failing to generate the kind of robust “impulse legs” on the intraday charts that we had become accustomed to. And the shares of another key bellwether, IBM, look just as heavy.

Even If We Are Wrong…

Are we perhaps premature in our bearishness? There’s always that possibility. We never claimed to have a crystal ball. But even if we’re wrong, Rick’s Picks will be looking to get short every chance we get, buying index put options at the targets of minor rallies, shorting the E-Mini futures outright at Hidden Pivot targets, and employing “camouflage” to jump onto nascent downtrends. Want to follow along in real time and see how we use the Hidden Pivot Method to reduce the risk of such trades — make a few bucks, even, when the trend goes directly against us?  Click here for a free trial subscription that will give you access not only to a 24/7 chat room that draws traders from all over the world, but to impromptu online trading sessions in which we stalk possible trades in real time. Incidentally, we’ve told subscribers to expect a 300+ point rally in the Dow before the next opportunity to short the broad averages fully ripens. If you are skeptical that trading can be fun, we invite you to join us at ringside!

  • gary leibowitz June 19, 2012, 11:12 pm

    Take out the noise. Put blinders on. Look only at market performance, i.e. earnings. Are there indications that future earnings will be negatively impacted? Is the market priced too high today? AAPL after that big run is still only at a P/E of 14.

    With current low expectations for earnings I can currently see more surprises happening on the upside.

    I believe the current rally had more to do with expectation that the FED start another round of QE. Not sure it will happen given the mixed economic news.
    I suspect it goes down one more time if the FED doesn’t give the green light. If they do than we could start the next 9 month rally off right here.

    • Robert June 21, 2012, 9:12 pm

      What is you other option?

      Short everything, and raise cash into a rising dollar index during a market crash?

      When the market crashes, the printers print… and cash loses.

      All this “wash, rinse, repeat” crap bores the hell out of me… that’s why I’m going fishing.

  • ken horn June 19, 2012, 7:07 pm

    I’ll keep this short. Playing the market is tough. If it weren’t, everybody would be playing & winning. The REAL news is terrible everywhere, but the MARKET as a discounting mechanism (over the long haul) is obviously manipulated short term. The FED has QE3 thru QE10 waiting in the wings, the MSM has their next month’s headlines at the ready & don’t forget this is an election year & the most contentious one EVER. We’ll get that correction all right, but only when our minds & investments are feeling more comfortable. Watch out for that beautiful blue horizon ahead, that’s the edge of the cliff.

  • redwilldanaher June 19, 2012, 6:34 pm

    My guess is that Rick’s energy level with respect to dealing with Gary is non-existent, as in, it is all spent, as mine has been for quite some time.

    My conclusion is that Gary is a paid government shill. I have no problem with Gary or anyone arguing that the market will scream much higher based upon manipulation and and continuation of the fantasy abetted by an unwillingness to stare at the truth. My problem is that Gary and his ilk try to treat things as if all really isn’t that bad beneath the surface.

    All I can say is that if I am ever clinically dead I’d like to have Gary as my ER Doc because he’ll never give up in trying to revive me and will believe to the ends of time that there is still hope for me…

    &&&&&

    You read my mind, Will. RA

  • gary leibowitz June 19, 2012, 5:38 pm

    Would love to know how I offended Rick this time?

    My post was a logical counter to his constant “sky is falling” presentation.

    Using Greece and AAPL as an example is not the best reason to exit the markets.

    I suspect this post will also get banned. Such is life!Have a good one!

    • redwilldanaher June 19, 2012, 6:24 pm

      I also think that overpriced designer hardware will be our salvation!

  • Rich June 19, 2012, 5:06 pm

    Delayed response to Mario’s thesis the other day that China is headed for #1:

    In fact, adjusted for purchasing parity, they already are, according to the Peterson Institute and UPenn:

    http://www.piie.com/blogs/?p=1935

    Re this market:

    Dow may be topping on the New Moon Summer Solstice. Trailing sell stops just below highs to close longs and enter shorts preserve capital…
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    8:05 AM – 19 Jun 12 via web · Details

  • fallingman June 19, 2012, 4:28 pm

    With all the green shoots appearing on the economic landscape, why would the Fed need to provide more monetary crack?

    Oh wait, that was 2010.

    Never mind.

  • Rick Ackerman June 19, 2012, 4:02 pm

    Nothing “throws out” technicals, Bill. Reality itself, and our perceptions of it, are the unwitting slaves of technicals.

    • Bill June 19, 2012, 4:45 pm

      I’ll chew on that one Rick . . .

      – Grasshopper

  • Bill June 19, 2012, 3:28 pm

    What about the real prospects of QE3?
    Doesn’t that throw out your technicals? An announcement by the Feds of another major round of monetary stimulus would cause the stock market & Gold to sky rocket, no?

  • gary leibowitz June 19, 2012, 3:08 pm

    Greece and Apple as your barometer? Now thats a big stretch. First off Greek elections was a non-event. The vote was not expected to be close. The move already happened before the election results. The idea that Spain was front and center in the news is justified. Thats is the BIG, really big question mark. Given the fact that their bond yields are starting to come down might mean the EU will be granting another extension.

    As for AAPL, given the huge steep run up I can’t understand why you would conclude the current action is indicating a breakdown. I would conclude it is a much needed consolidation. It is a great company with known growth potential.

    Like I have stated here before, you keep looking for a hurricane when the weather report mentions rain.

    When the markets don’t move on a dime based on news indicates to me that the street has already priced in the event.

    Are we anywhere need a key breakdown point?

    • gary leibowitz June 19, 2012, 7:24 pm

      I suppose Rick can see this as a harsh criticism. It was only intended to place a counterpoint to a very slanted one-sided view of the world. It’s arguments and intent were not displaced. The last 3 years of market advance and earnings are a testament to that fact.

      The markets have absolutely gotten it right these past 3 years. If you think not than we would be sitting on a P/E ratio of under 7 with no indication of a dramatic drop in future earnings.

      I am trying to show that just because there are negative events in the world it must also be negative for domestic earnings. As long as governments prop up debt ridden nations and institutions, earnings will do fine. The markets only look for tangible evidence that earnings will be impacted.

      As far as I can see the bailouts continue till they can’t or won’t.

      I wonder why there are so few articles presenting buying opportunities that aren’t derived from pessimistic news/events.