Evidence continues to accumulate that the Mother of All Bear Rallies begun in March of 2009 may have breathed its last. Yesterday, for instance, the all-news-is-good-news shtick so beloved on Wall Street laid an egg when markets around the world shrugged following Greek voters’ decision to stick with the euro. Ordinarily, Asian and European markets wouldn’t even have waited to breathe a sigh of relief before putting a death-lock on the cahones of traders reckless enough to have gone home short over the weekend. What we got instead of the obligatory short-squeeze was feeble rallies around the world, culminating with a reversal on the NYSE Monday that left the Dow Industrials 25 points lower. Worse yet, the news media quickly buried the story from Greece on the inside pages, focusing instead on how Spain’s borrowing costs have shot into the red zone above 7% once again. To put this in perspective, most hedge funds aren’t returning anything close to 7% these days. Imagine having to pay lenders that much just to cover fixed expenses.
Another sign that stocks have returned to Kansas after more than three years in Oz is that bellwether Apple’s shares have looked punk ever since the stock hit an all-time high at $644 in mid-April. Minor rally cycles are failing to generate the kind of robust “impulse legs” on the intraday charts that we had become accustomed to. And the shares of another key bellwether, IBM, look just as heavy.
Even If We Are Wrong…
Are we perhaps premature in our bearishness? There’s always that possibility. We never claimed to have a crystal ball. But even if we’re wrong, Rick’s Picks will be looking to get short every chance we get, buying index put options at the targets of minor rallies, shorting the E-Mini futures outright at Hidden Pivot targets, and employing “camouflage” to jump onto nascent downtrends. Want to follow along in real time and see how we use the Hidden Pivot Method to reduce the risk of such trades — make a few bucks, even, when the trend goes directly against us? Click here for a free trial subscription that will give you access not only to a 24/7 chat room that draws traders from all over the world, but to impromptu online trading sessions in which we stalk possible trades in real time. Incidentally, we’ve told subscribers to expect a 300+ point rally in the Dow before the next opportunity to short the broad averages fully ripens. If you are skeptical that trading can be fun, we invite you to join us at ringside!
Take out the noise. Put blinders on. Look only at market performance, i.e. earnings. Are there indications that future earnings will be negatively impacted? Is the market priced too high today? AAPL after that big run is still only at a P/E of 14.
With current low expectations for earnings I can currently see more surprises happening on the upside.
I believe the current rally had more to do with expectation that the FED start another round of QE. Not sure it will happen given the mixed economic news.
I suspect it goes down one more time if the FED doesn’t give the green light. If they do than we could start the next 9 month rally off right here.