A Day in the Life of a Shanghai Consumer

[We recently asked our friend Mario Cavolo, a frequent contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum, what it’s like from a cost-of-living standpoint to live in Shanghai. A New York City expatriate who lives and works in Shanghai himself as an entrepreneur, author, TV and radio personality, he graciously obliged with the guest commentary below. The fictitious diary is that of a middle-manager, Mr. Wang, who, like many of us in the U.S., struggles to make ends meet. RA]

In this piece, we shall spend an imaginary and obviously unrealistic day in the life of a typical middle-class man living an ordinary life in Shanghai.  In the process, we shall come to better understand the typical costs associated with middle-class family life in today’s China.   Our “average Joe” is Mr. Wang, 30 years old, a white collar worker who might be an engineer, architect, human resources administrator or account manager. He is a middle-class professional who works for a large Chinese or multinational company, earning a salary of perhaps 4000-8000 renminbi ($670-$1340) per month plus a nice benefit package, and living “in the city” with his wife and brother. Note as well that if the Wang family lived in a secondary city such as Chengdu, Shenyang, Changchun and dozens of others, the local costs and prices noted would range 20% to 40% lower. For example, a taxi in Shanghai starts at 14rmb/$2.20, while in Shenyang they start at 8rmb/$1.40. Similar local apartment rents in a second-tier city are quite low, at 1500-2500rmb ($275-$450)/month for a 2-3 bedroom unit.

Mr. Wang’s Rough Morning

Sunrise greets our day once again, leading us out the door at 8 am. from Wang’s 900 square-foot, three-bedroom, fourth-floor walk-up which rents for 3000rmb/$500 per month. Mind you, that is pretty cheap, but only because Mr. Wang does not live in prime downtown Shanghai where rent for the same type of older apartment would be 5000rmb/$800. Note that I did say “three” bedrooms, as Mr. Wang’s brother lives in the third. This type of sharing is the rule, not the exception, in China, leading me to tell you that I estimate the average per person rent range in local China to be 625-1350rmb/$100-$200 per month depending on which end of the salary range one can afford.  It is a

briskly paced ten-minute walk to the subway or public bus which awaits at a cost of 5rmb/$.50 for a 30-40 minute transit to work; Wang makes a five-minute breakfast pit stop along the way at one of many street vendors selling 2rmb/$.25 veggie/meat filled steam buns or  a Chinese-style fast-grilled pancake with an egg in it, along with a container of milk or soy milk at 1.5rmb/$.20.  He checks his watch on arrival and exclaims, “Wa! I’m running late!”, so instead of walking, he hops on the back of one of the many motorcycle or tricycle carts (illegal) for 5rmb/$.50 to arrive at work in five minutes instead of the usual fifteen. Scenario 2: Wang lives it up a bit and hops a taxi  to work every morning for 30rmb/$5. Scenario 3: Wang is fortunate to work for one of the many regional or national-sized companies who offer shuttle bus pickup/drop-off every hour from 8am to 10pm – cost: zero.  That’s a helluva benefit, as a result of which Mr. Wang’s main means of transportation in his personal life is an old, rusty bicycle which he won’t replace with a new one because a new one is more likely to be stolen.

A Toothache Strikes!

Nine a.m., and agony strikes!  “Arghh! My toothache has returned,” exclaims Wang to his boss — and off he goes for a root canal at a local, clean, decent dental clinic. Cost: $85 for the typical three-visit root canal. On the way back to the office, Wang decides to stop at the local Circle K-type market where it is convenient to pay his utility bills and charge up his mobile phone ($10 to $20/month). Average electric/gas/water for the month is close to 180rmb/$30 or 1000rmb/$120, depending. Say what? Well, yes, “depending.” You see, if Wang is a typically thrifty local Chinese living south of the mighty Yangtze River, he wears lots of thick clothes in the winter, when temperatures average 4-10C/35-40 degrees, with perhaps a couple of weeks at or below zero, and he does not turn on the heat, not ever. In fact, even the student dormitories at Shanghai’s best universities are not heated in the wintertime, only the dorm bath/shower areas. And no, as you are surely about to ask, the students are not allowed to bring in little electric space heaters to get toasty. Ditto for summertime heat, many Chinese will relieve the humid 90-degree temperatures with no more than the breeze of electric and handheld fans.

Ten a.m., and more agony! Wang’s brother had gone out the door at the same time this morning to do the day’s shopping at the local farmer’s market. He spent 3rmb/$.50 / lb. for a typical assortment of veggies such as lettuces, peppers, potatoes, leeks, onions, etc., 9rmb/$1.50 per lb. for a variety of fresh clams, 20rmb/$3 for 2lbs of fresh, frozen perch, 35rmb/$5.75 for a live freshly killed 2lb catfish, double that price for a cut of the day’s salmon carcass. Hankering for meat, he sauntered over to the butcher’s area and picked up some pork loin with a thick strip of fat still on its edge at 18rmb/$3 per lb. and raw chicken for 12rmb/$2 per lb. Chicken breasts, incidentally, are equally cheap, not regarded as a higher quality meat cut as in the West compared to legs and thighs because the breast meat is regarded as tougher and dryer.

Grocery Mishap

Moving back to the agony in the story; on the way back home from the market Mr. Wang’s brother slipped in a puddle of water along the curb and, wow, you should have seen the groceries go flying! Sad to see all that food hit the ground, some of which was saved. But more to the point, Wang’s brother’s lower back also hit the ground with a thud, and so off to the hospital he went.

Eleven a.m.: Arrive Dong Fang #1 hospital on the Pudong side of Shanghai’s Huang Pu River. If you happened to need to park your car, 10rmb/$1.50  (#1 level hospitals are the larger, main city hospitals, rather than smaller local #2 and #3 hospital clinics which also exist in China’s healthcare system. They offer many services which smaller hospitals do not, as they lack the diagnostic equipment.) Patient registration window: 20rmb/$3.50. Nurse: “What’s the problem?” Wang’s brother, “I fell, lower back/hip injury.” Nurse: “3rd floor, room 15C, go wait there until they call your name.” Now, mind you, this is similar to a doctor’s visit in the west where you wait in the waiting room until they call you or your number lights up on an LED board to tell you it’s your turn. Except that you did not need to make an appointment in the first place. Furthermore, if Wang’s brother’s injury was more of an emergency that could not wait, he would have gone directly to the emergency department, where he would presumably be seen sooner, but at essentially the same cost.

11:30 a.m. Sorry, pal. W-a-a-a-y too many people at the hospital today, so you’ll be seeing the doctor after lunch. A truly local Chinese lunch typically consists of some meat, fish or tofu with veggies over rice and costs the average local 8-15rmb/$1.25-$2.50.  For those Chinese citizens guilty of creating the new generation of unhealthy fat kids, a McDonald’s or KFC happy meal with fries and a Pepsi goes for 15-25rmb/$2.5-$4. Those on tight budgets will eat 2-3 stuffed steam buns at 2rmb/$0.20 each. Ah, the fruit, can’t forget the fresh fruit! 1rmb/$.15 for that “apple a day…”

Afternoon Shopping Spree

2:30 p.m.: Wang’s brother is pretty sore, so the doctor orders an X-ray, writes it up, hands the slip to Wang’s brother who goes to pay at the cashier’s window on the second floor. Cost: 45rmb/$7.50.  He waits for the X-ray department to hand him the X-ray envelope so he can take it upstairs to the doctor.  Note on payment for services: Whatever the doctor at the hospital orders, whether a test or blood work, or an X-ray, you pay for it first or you don’t get it.  Also, if you have medical benefits as part of your employment package, typically you are given a plastic company debit card on which is a credit of a few hundred rmb for you to use when you need to see a doctor or buy medicine.

Boy, oh boy! It seems Wang’s brother really whacked his lower back, so the doctor orders a CT-scan. Cost: 300rmb/$45. The scan is somehow still not able to satisfy this meticulous doctor, so he orders an MRI! Good grief! Mortgage the house! Sell the dog! Just kidding, folks. Cost: around 800rmb/$130. That’s without insurance, and not kidding.  (I’ve had two of them myself.) Finally, we hear from the doctor: “Wang’s brother is okay. He will survive!” the physician declares. But his convalescence will require plenty of ibuprofen — not so cheap at 17rmb/$3 for a box of twenty; 12-hour 300mg capsules, and ice over the next two weeks. There was a break of the skin that wasn’t too deep, but just to be safe the doctor gives Wang’s brother a prescription for some Ciprofloxacin, um, oh shoot, or was that Cephalexin? Darn, I can’t remember, but I do remember the week’s cost of those handy-dandy antibiotics at a dirt cheap 15rmb/$2.50! Now, this next part is really embarrassing and a bit of a side story. I heard through the grapevine that Wang’s sister’s cousin’s best friend, Miss Ding, is really fuming these days because she dated Mark’s other friend for a couple of months and now finds herself with a case of herpes! Ho-ho. Gossipy stuff indeed, but I mention it only because a typical ten-day course of acyclovir probably sets the poor guy back a scant 50rmb/$8.75.

Harvard-Trained MD

Did I mention that Wang’s brother was chatting with the doctor during the exam? In fact, the doctor spoke decent English and enjoyed practicing with Wang’s brother, who wasn’t half bad at English himself. Wang’s brother: “Ah, you have been to the U.S., really? Where?” asked Wang. Doctor: “Massachusetts! I studied at Harvard Medical School,” said the doctor.. Not bad for a $3.50 hospital registration fee to see the doc.

3:30 p.m. Meanwhile, Wang’s brother’s friend Li was kind enough to come to the hospital so Wang could get back to work. Li drives a decent car and stops at the gas station for 20 liters of 93 octane regular at 8.5rmb/liter, which I believe is around $5/gallon.  This friend of the Wang family is also a smoker, and, as the story reveals, quite the compulsive shopper too! He picks up a fresh pack of famous Double Happiness brand cheap cigarettes at 5rmb/$.90 while there are a variety of other brands running from three to ten times higher in price depending on whom you might be trying to impress.  Thirst suddenly comes, so the cold section door swings open as a hand grabs plastic pints of Coke, green tea, and spring water, all priced around 3rmb/$.35.  Ooh, man! Mid-day low-sugar hunger pangs hit, and so it’s time for a quick-food snack like fast-food Japanese rice rolls stuffed with veggie, tofu and that fake-crab stuff. Cost: another 6rmb/$1.  As you will have surmised by mow, the average Chinese diet isn’t much healthier than an average American diet, with too many carbs and fats. And yet, people here are slimmer, perhaps because walking and biking are much more common.

Happy-Hour Libations

Of course, Wang’s brother’s friend would never drink alcohol before driving because the law in China is now zero tolerance for alcohol in your blood while driving, and a violation earns one a guaranteed 15 days in detention plus a one-year driver’s license suspension.  So with that sobering thought in mind, he picks up a few for his arrival home; a pint of Budweiser, Japanese brands Asahi and Kirin (all at 4% alcohol) at 8rmb/$1.40 per pint, while the local famous brews like Tsingdao and Snow (at 2-3% alcohol) go for half that price at only 4rmb/$.70 per pint-sized bottle. To liven things up a bit and keep warm in the winter without heat, cheap, 80-100 proof rice liquor rocket fuel called baijiu is also available for less than a buck.

For those who drink alcohol, we must pause to note that here’s where the alcohol thing gets crazy: in the world of wine. You see, Wang’s brother’s friend Mark is a foreigner from France. He’s coming for dinner tonight and we don’t need to speculate on whether he prefers wine with dinner.  Nothing fancy, even a decent Chilean merlot will do, Mark had reminded his host of this a couple of days earlier. Back in the USA, as you know, it’s off to Trader Joe’s, where you’ll find a  lovely variety of drinkable wines from $5 to $12/bottle. And in fact, you’ll find the same variety and selection of the world’s most popular wines in Chinese supermarkets, too: Chilean, Australian, French, South African, California and, hey, you can bet the Italian Pinto Grigios and Chiantis are right there too. Glorious days, oh thee nouveau Chinese wine consumer! Explosive growth in the wine market has arrived in China – indeed, right along with explosive consumption growth of most goods, imported or otherwise.  Except that a bottle of the cheapest drinkables here will set you back around triple; at least 80-120rmb/$13-$20 and most of the nicer, middle-of-the-road $15-$30 bottles back in the U.S. or Europe will set you back a cool 250-500rmb/$40-$90! Of course when you’re in the mood to indulge and impress once a week as Wang’s brother’s friend is obliged to do for his house guests,  there’s nothing like a bag of Doritos, which will set you back a cool 60rmb/$9.50 to go with that $30 bottle of rot-gut French table merlot.

From Grapes to Italian Tomatoes

Grapes and tomatoes are said to be very healthy, both packed with all those micronutrients such as like lycopenes that I won’t bother to mention here. I bring it up because, while consumer goods imported from most other countries like the U.S., Australia, or other European countries are typically double or triple the cost, Italian imported goods are not. As a typical Italian-American growing up in New York, canned Italian plum tomatoes were a staple, along with garlic and olive oil. Here in China, those imported cans of Italian tomatoes, along with Italian pastas and a few other Italian imported products (except all olive oils, which are also expensive), are priced no higher than back in the States. A can of Italian plum tomatoes here sets Wang back 12rmb/$2, a bargain for those times when his foreign friends come for dinner, giving Wang and his lovely wife a chance to try their hand at cooking Western foods for a change.

It’s a Boy!

9:00pm – Aya! (the Chinese version of Wow! or Gee!):  Wang’s wife’s water broke after dinner! Off to the Pudong #1 Maternity Hospital they go for an uncomplicated, natural childbirth, three nights of rest and another happy family joins China’s current boom- boom baby boom that no one besides me seems to be noticing and writing about. More to the point for today, let’s talk about the pregnancy and birth bill.  Mrs. Wang is a tiny thing, and so her baby in vitro was healthy but at 32 weeks still a bit “on the small side.” And so the doctor recommends that Mrs. Wang do what I call the “Chinese pregnant mother cheap country club hospital holiday.”  This means sharing a room with three to five other expecting mothers, there to relax, eat well, receive extra protein amino-acids and vitamins by IV, and receive one round (one round regarded as quite safe) of dexamethasone to insure the healthy development of the wee one’s lungs. As to the cost of this rather common event in the world of Chinese families: seven days in the hospital, shared room, at an average of 700rmb/$110 per day, totaling 5000rmb/$980.  Wow, a decent medical-themed holiday! Now add in half- a-dozen routine hospital follow-up visits with ultrasounds and blood tests during the term of the pregnancy, at an average 300rmb/$75 per visit. Finally, the bill for the labor/birth experience typically comes in at China’s largest, most popular maternity wards around 6000rmb/$1,000. However Pudong’s #1 Maternity is regarded as a step-up in quality, so the final bill is higher at 11,000rmb/$1,600. Again, all of my costs noted are without any type of health care coverage.

Drugs, Gambling and…Baby Formula

Considering the baby boom currently under way here, it is fitting that our look at middle class costs ends at the beginning — the beginning of family life that is. A month’s worth of comfy diapers dings the daily budget for around 9rmb/$1.50 per day, totaling 270rmb/$45 per month — not much cheaper than in the states, I suspect. (Six to eight diapers per day, right, Dads?)  China’s baby car-seats – which, by the way, are still not required by law, can be purchased for around 300rmb/$50 and you’ll need 250-500rmb/$40-$80 for a decent China-brand stroller.

No story such as this can touch well upon the concerns and needs of today’s China families without exploring the hottest product around — one for which Chinese people cross the border by the thousands into the gambling mecca of Macau each and every day. Drugs? No. You mean, gambling? Nope. You must mean the prostitutes then?! Wrong again. Its baby formula, a food product in a country with a dismal record of food manufacturing safety, a topic laced with legitimate worry, a product hopefully not laced with melamine ever again. Reputable Chinese brand baby formula will set back the Wang family budget by about 625rmb/$100 per month. You should know that this is an item where many families will if at all possible buy the more trusted, better brands and even imported brands of baby formula, raising the wallet-shrinking number well over 1000rmb/$150 per month.

Last time I checked, in every country and culture around the globe, momma’s breast milk was still absolutely free. Thankfully, there are some sacred things in this world that the shenanigans of today’s shameful politicians, greedy banking elite, and even China’s highly inflationary economy simply can’t touch.

***

The exclusive Kindle version of Mario Cavolo’s new book, China: Inside Out & Upside Down, Volume I, will be published in the coming weeks.

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  • mario cavolo March 15, 2012, 6:11 am

    Thanks everyone and as always to Rick for providing this venue for us to post views on subjects related to global current affairs…

    Cheers, Mario

  • bc March 14, 2012, 10:26 pm

    Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. MC. Nice job.

  • redwilldanaher March 14, 2012, 4:15 pm

    Hi Mario,

    Enjoyed your essay. A very good read. Thanks for your contribution.

  • RichardB March 14, 2012, 3:29 pm

    Good story. Thanks for writing it.

    Surprising how costs can vary so much in different countries.

  • Richard Charles March 14, 2012, 3:26 pm

    Good stuff Mario.
    Glad you filled in for Rick visiting family with your China perspective. Many fine ideas and observations here.
    Friends from Harbin, Shanghai and Taipei could add what it was like during the Manchurian War with bayoneted babies in the gutters and the revolution between the Mao’s Communists and Sun Yat Sen’s Nationalists eating dirt and moving treasuries, then displaced stateless refugees sponsored to America by a GOP Senator.
    Note Ambrose Evans Pritchard talking about a downturn in global liquidity, and inclined to agree.
    In a word: Deflation time…

  • gary leibowitz March 14, 2012, 2:58 pm

    This lifestyle you speak of all presupposes that the Chinese government will continue on its somewhat capitalistic approach. I have wondered for years how they can balance the 2 diametrically opposing ideologies. Having “free zones”, allowing free enterprise will always invite the notion of a free society.

    How do they continue to have a dictatorial regime while allowing the “taste” of capitalism? Do you think this new paradigm can continue? Are the Chinese people too ingrained in their beliefs that the thought of having free elections is too alien to them? What about the generation that is growing up in such a transitional state?

    • gary leibowitz March 14, 2012, 3:09 pm

      As an aside, Gold is getting hit hard, while equities have clearly broken out. Not a good sign for the immediate future. Looks like there is finally a disconnect between commodiies and equities. This can only suggest peoples attitude on the future has changed. Money is going to be pouring into the stock market at the expense of other investments.

      I now see the possibility of a 20 percent rise in the stock market year over year. If external factors don’t derail this trend, we are in a perfect sunny day lasting perhaps another 9 months. This will make Obama’s chances of winning re-election an odds on favorite.

      Inflation tame, import and export costs low, a recession in EU and China, wages tame, domestic spending up along with debt. Looks like the old patterns are coming back. Once again I myself am surprised at these developments. I had thought a “muddling thru” scenario was the most likely. Clearly I have been wrong.

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 14, 2012, 3:23 pm

      Not to be irritating Gary but Chinese growth at 7, 8 or even 9% is nowhere near to being a recession. It is just slower growth.

      On the Gold side though, WOW!, is it ever getting a whipping today. Very unusual, but Gold is falling faster than Silver for a change. I want to ask (but am a little reluctant) if the technicals saw this change coming.

      I am sticking with my call for Gold to drop to resistance at 1525 with a possibility it could drop to 1500 thus confirming a downtrend that is shown by lower lows. We will see. So far I have not been disappointed.

    • gary leibowitz March 14, 2012, 3:51 pm

      Cam,
      You never irritate me. Since the Chinese growth stats have been skewed so much it is hard to say if it is a slowdown from a very fast pace or actual contraction. I suspect some sectors are being hit but overall it is a slower rate of growth. In any event that in itself will slow the pace of externally driven inflation.

      As for Gold technically speaking I do believe it can go down as far as 1500 and still be in a bullish trend.

    • BigTom March 14, 2012, 5:53 pm

      Cam – China needs 6%-7% annual economic growth just to stay even with population growth. Very little is believable in what comes out of our own government statistics here in the U.S. regarding anything, so how much faith do you put in China’s official projections or analysis?

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 15, 2012, 2:15 am

      Cheers Gary, good to hear.

      My outside low bet on gold by the way is around the 1525 mark and I am feeling pretty confident that it should bounce hard from there. This might actually be the last best time to invest in PM’s before the next really big moves up so I will have to start being nice to all the Gold huggers again!

      Part of my logic actually has to do with, of all things, Nat Gas which appears to me to have bottomed.

      What I believe is going to take place is that we will see an S&P market correction in the 5% range that will be the much needed pull back before a terrific launch that takes us right through to elections.

      The dollar should hit resistance at .82 in my scenario and then begin a slide that goes on for months. Gold will benefit and begin to climb rather steadily as the commodity sector simultaneously sees a bloom.

      This is about where natural gas gets a big boost off the bottom with oil rising at the same time so we will have fresh inflation expectations building in the economy.

      Unbelievably, another round of easing may come. Soon. Possibly this could happen as an outcome of the corrective event but more importantly, because momentum will be looking like it is being lost. I am not a proponent, I merely believe that is on the horizon and it may be done partially to offset concerns about slowing in both China and Europe. We just cannot have the biggest economies in the world all slowing together. That is a disaster. Someones boat needs to rise and it will be ours.

      I don’t know what might trigger the event though but I am convinced this is one of those moments where a change becomes crystalized. Credit must be freed in order to fire up the consumption economy and create the conditions necessary for jobs growth which may thus give extra support to a housing bottom and a sense of improved optimism.

      The velocity chart I was pointing to yesterday seems to me to be one of the keys to action being imminent where looser credit is concerned. It is also at an inflection point where action may be required to cause that reversal to occur.

      That is my outlook for the next while anyway. Going short USD when it double tops, long Gold off any point between 1525 and 1550 and back in the market on confirmation of the two events. Nat Gas rising and a bull market in equities until elections.

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 15, 2012, 2:26 am

      BigTom March 14, 2012
      “Cam – China needs 6%-7% annual economic growth just to stay even with population growth”.
      ———-
      Is it really that high Tom? China has a low birth rate and a demographic makeup similar to our own. Immigration into China is relatively low. I guess I have to wonder then how much growth we need here just to keep up with all the fresh faces seeking jobs each year especially as immigration is high by most standards. Needed growth is less than we are getting, that’s for sure. Do you recall where you picked up that info by any chance? The data is, as you suggest, mostly suspect and is usually chiseled one way or another (not that we don’t fiddle the numbers here too, but at least we usually have means and ways to dig into the truth). I continue to worry that a slowdown in China will have a negative effect on most commodity nations starting late this year or early in the next. It is the reason that I cannot make any bet on how markets might be doing after the election. My honest opinion is that by November, China’s property bubble will have morphed into an actual crash and my worst case scenario of a huge correction in commodities will be ripe for action. If that happens we may well get the dreaded defaltion shock. We shall see.

  • martin schnell March 14, 2012, 12:57 pm

    Great stuff.

    One of the interesting things about Asia is that it is often still possible to live cheap, if you are willing to make a few sacrifices. But in North America many of these options are not available. This allows for a greater wealth gap to exists without as much trouble.

    A small example. If I want a dental cleaning/checkup it will cost me $150, which is simply nuts, but there is no alternative because that is the negotiated dental schedule (yes dentists effectively have unions too).

    Finally the sharing of living space is an important issue. By doing this it is possible to save a whole lot of money (that is how my wife and I saved for our home – 6 people in a 4 bedroom apartment for 4 years, even after we were married – inconvenient a bit, but well worth it).

  • Mark Uzick March 14, 2012, 11:21 am

    Cam, in yesterday’s post, you seemed to imply that decreasing velocity of money somehow signaled deflation. Are you able to explain the connection between the two?

    1. There’s monetary deflation – a decrease in the money supply – which clearly is not the case.

    2. There’s price deflation, but the cost of goods has been rising at an accelerated rate.

    The nominal GDP, (which should be called “gross national spending” as it measures spending instead of production) keeps rising as you’d expect when the money supply increases much more than the drop in velocity.(spending = money supply times velocity)

    With regard to today’s comment: The dollar is in far worse shape than the euro in all measures:

    1. The US, with only about 90% of Europe’s economic size, has a current account deficit 10 times as large.

    2. Europe’s ratio of debt to GDP is 88% as much as the US’s.

    3. The dollar’s inflation rate is “2.9%” where the euro’s inflation rate is “2.6%” and, since the BLS is a much bigger liar, they have us beat by a far greater margin than these numbers indicate.

    4. Euro-land’s benchmark interest rate is 1%; the US’ is essentially 0%.

    Some people say that Europe is not a political unit, the US is; as if that was in our favor.
    That could potentially be in the euro’s favor; they can’t get away with the same degree of nonsense as in a more centralized system. The USA was set up like that, but the federal government has grabbed powers that far exceed its Constitutional authority.

    No doubt Europe will find a way around these restrictions and become more like us, using financial repression to to destroy their currency in the race to save the banks.

    The price of gold is reasonable, in terms of its historical buying power, but just as it has come up off of a ridiculously low buying power during a short period of irrational faith in fiat currency, it may go up toward infinity more rapidly than common goods and services, giving it, temporarily, ridiculously high purchasing power as faith in fiat money is lost and people begin to panic.

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 14, 2012, 1:50 pm

      Sure, I would agree that Golds day is not done, Mark. I think it has quite a ways to go actually so this corrective period is healthy.

      What usually drives me around the bend is how excited the dollar doomer’s get whenever it shows even a little strength. Gold is symbolic of a loss of faith and so it seems to energize those who despise the current system. We might not have it perfect here but we are not Zimbabwe either and I do not believe the dollar will fail. That is the side of the fence I am on and taking the piss out of Gold-Huggers is just what I do for fun.

      On the issue of velocity, what I am referring to is how it interacts with supply to affect the amount of economic activity. In general, in order for inflation to be expected to break out in we would see velocity rising. It can happen with both a small money supply or a large money supply with the main difference being how much velocity exists. Thus a smaller money supply and high velocity would still result in an inflationary outcome.

      So what I am getting at is the fact that we have witnessed a massive increase in the money supply while simultaneously velocity is dropping. We know that an important part of that equation is that so much money is sitting on the balance sheets of both the Fed and regular banks and that lending is still restrictive.

      Is that about to change though? And if it does what should we expect Gold to do other than see a very steep rise.

      I am no chartist but what I am seeing is that velocity has hit resistance. One of two things might happen. It could fall below the 1.6 ratio thus signalling the economy is heading for recession with fair certainty or it could bounce and we will suddenly begin to experience the worries of the monetarist crowd who claimed all along that Fed intervention would ultimately bring on some serious (even dangerous) inflation.

      Perhaps we are just at the inflection point now. I don’t claim to know. Whatever happens next though could be dramatic in how it changes our investment philosophies.

      And just on a side note, I have also been keeping an eye on natural gas which I think has hit a bottom and is ready to rise. I wonder how energy costs might be tied to a potentially inflationary future in other words. We will see. Nobody ever said that 2012 was going to be boring that is for sure.

    • Mark Uzick March 14, 2012, 2:54 pm

      Cam: On the issue of velocity, what I am referring to is how it interacts with supply to affect the amount of economic activity. In general, in order for inflation to be expected to break out in we would see velocity rising. It can happen with both a small money supply or a large money supply with the main difference being how much velocity exists. Thus a smaller money supply and high velocity would still result in an inflationary outcome.

      Cam, you can’t look at factors like velocity in isolation!
      If you’re looking at how velocity interacts with money supply, then you must keep in mind the fact that the money supply is increasing much faster than velocity is decreasing.

      1.You can have inflation with falling economic activity. Lowered production purchased with stable or increasing supply of money at a given velocity equals rising prices, as you have equal or greater money chasing less goods.

      2. With the exceptions of an inflation panic or a boom, rising money supply would tend to reduce velocity, as it requires less velocity to produce the same amount of sales.

      3. It’s the rising ratio of sales/production that causes inflation, where sales = money supply times velocity. You can have rising sales with lowered velocity if the money supply rises faster; or with lower money supply if velocity rises faster.

      4. If both velocity and money supply are increasing:
      a. there can be price deflation if productivity is rising faster than their sum (= sales).
      b. this would indicate inflationary panic buying if productivity is stable or falling.

  • Mark Uzick March 14, 2012, 10:00 am

    Mario, this is great stuff. I wonder how long one would have to visit to even see half of what you can describe from your special perspective.
    I think that in China we can see some partial glimpses of what once made America so dynamic. Even the migration to the cities from the “foreign” lands within the Chinese empire parallel the waves of immigration to American cities. I hope that their society evolves further toward what we might have become – not what we presently are.

    • mario cavolo March 14, 2012, 10:27 am

      Hi Mark,

      While I feel it would be very well to describe “America” as a grand experiment gone bad, the writing doesn’t seem to be on the wall that in terms of the expanding, society, China will become anything particular noteworthy or special. I say that because I don’t see how the Chinese govt’s level of control and policy making is going to ever become
      loose and open and liberal enough to allow another “America” to happen. China is amazingly expanding and improving but from a completely different govt and societal paradigm, which has plenty of both good and bad along the way. We can easily say that as far as being good stewards of a rising nation or what one might call “governance”, it is not a stretch to say that Beijing is doing a much more efficient and effective job than Washington which is deeply mired in its self-serving politics and govt/banking favoritism. Hey, Beijing is also doing plenty that favors the wealthy too much, but at least in China the middle class is rising not declining. Yet, with inflation, the poor are the ones getting pinched, well that’s the case the world over, is n’t it?

      Cheers, Mario

    • Mark Uzick March 14, 2012, 11:36 am

      Mario, the ROC was once one of the most oppressive and brutal dictatorships in the world, rivaling the mainland, yet their embrace of capitalism, as the PRC has now done, led to political reform. I may be too optimistic, but I don’t dismiss the possibility that the PRC will follow a similar pattern as affluence grows.

  • Cam Fitzgerald March 14, 2012, 8:45 am

    And there she goes……following gold and the dollar tonight and getting confirmation of my calls. Dollar is showing real strength and headed back to .82 if not higher. Gold meanwhile, is taking the beating it so richly deserves as it was far too heavily speculated upon and was diverging from both common sense and reality.

    It is always a good day when my calls are correct.

  • Jill March 14, 2012, 4:31 am

    Fascinating, Mario. Great info for the majority of us who will likely never visit China and who know little about it.

    • mario cavolo March 14, 2012, 10:28 am

      Thanks kindly Jill…

  • Jeff March 14, 2012, 3:00 am

    Sure are getting lazy getting forum participants to do all of your write ups now.

    &&&&&

    That’s me, all right: old lazybones. Actually, I’m on a busman’s holiday visiting family, you horse’s ass. For the record, Rick’s Picks hasn’t skipped a single issue in the 10 years I’ve published the newsletter. RA

    • edd March 14, 2012, 3:52 am

      Jeff, Lazy? Surely you jest. Far from being lazy, I see a gracious humility and a refreshing spirit of desire to see a broad range of free flowing analysis and debate. I for one marvel at the high level of intellect and cutting insight to be found herein. I am most grateful for Rick allowing and encourging the diverse wealth of thought here, thoughts he himself often disagrees with.

    • Bradley March 14, 2012, 6:10 am

      Yeah, that was kind of mean spirited. Jees, dude, have YOU ever tried to run your own website and post as much as Rick does??? Whether I agree with what he says matters not. You still have to admire the effort, no?
      Come on. Are you a man or a mouse. Apologize and maybe we can all get along…

      (Sent from Kauai, so I’m all “bro’d” out and all…weather FINALLY cleared, so it’s not just rain and wind, there is actually some SUN out there!)

    • mario cavolo March 14, 2012, 10:30 am

      Geez Jeff, an owner of a business needs to take a week off and have others in their social and business circle provide some good cover…no big deal…Mario

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 15, 2012, 2:37 am

      Actually Jeff, Rick had once told me that having guest writers actually cost him more time than if he had just composed his own material. I don’t doubt it. Most of us who have volunteered to send in essays usually needed plenty of edits, some babysitting, the required back and forth e-mails of discussion (because some of us are insecure) and finally changes to make it to print. Whew! For your money, Jeff, you get a snapshot of investor sentiment that can make your head spin some days.

  • Anthony F March 14, 2012, 1:57 am

    Spending…
    I believe Italians and Chinese can be very thrifty,
    They like to save and buy cash.
    Since Italians have for now chosen the austerity
    path, they are NOT spending.
    National consumption was reported last night to have fallen to a 30 year Low!
    It would be interesting to get some assessment on
    Chinese consumption trends
    Thanks

    • mario cavolo March 14, 2012, 10:36 am

      China consumption is and will remain on the rise, along with a general inflation in the society including salaries. Its not a surprise to say that all reporting of up/down waves and other sector stats on China are within the context of an overall uptrend and expansion relative to both its own internal society and its place in the global economy; its America 30 years ago, I’m not saying anything profound Anthony, its rather self-evident…America 40 years ago but in a very different world…rather fascinating to wonder where this will all be across the globe in 30-40-50 years…Cheers, Mario

  • steve m March 14, 2012, 1:41 am

    It would be great to hear your comments about inflation. Where I am living the poor and old are really starting the feel the squeeze. Veggies, meat, etc etc have nearly doubled in price in the last 18 months. (not blaming the US printers)

    • mario cavolo March 14, 2012, 10:40 am

      Yea steve, my mother in law, a typical retired schoolteacher from Shenyang is absolutely freaking out…man, when the price of an goes from $1 to $1.50, we might scoff, but heck no, that’s 50% inflation and people on a low monthly are the first to suffer…a big issue, especially as less younger folks who will have to take up the slack financially to care for the increasingly larger elderly population, typical macro problems, none easy to deal with…Cheers, Mario

  • steve m March 14, 2012, 1:38 am

    Interesting read. Thanks Mario. I lived in Shanghai for about a year and Suzhou for 2 years. Currently living about 3 hours from Xi’an. Some of the price ranges are very interesting. I would be very interested in hearing more about the “poor” side of living. For example; la mian, instant noodles, hard seat trains.
    Thanks again for the great read.

  • Anthony F March 14, 2012, 1:38 am

    Correction

    c) Next it was last Night raid on the EURO.
    It fell from 1.3195 to 1.3065

  • Anthony F March 14, 2012, 1:34 am

    I will pass comments on Shangai
    But so far as Today’s Market action
    I believe it was carefully planned and executed to trap on the net
    as many Shorts as possible for a painful squire..
    and get the indices past the resistance.
    I guess their next move it will be to drag in as many
    sheep-investors, then eventually flip the coin.

    The risk to lose the Presidency next term,
    The risk of admitting Fed Reserve Policy failures
    seem to have weighted on Govt complicity strategy with Banks,
    and greedy, unscrupulous traders.
    a) This is a good evaluation of the jobs gains-losses ,
    and manipulative reporting.
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/daniel-amerman/making-9-million-jobless-vanish-how-the-government-manipulates-unemployment-statistics
    b) If you watch the past few days, I believe the pattern has been for the market to drop in the Morning (OK Bull Market behavior) ,
    So, just when Shorts are now contemplating closing the Morning Gap (a very common occurrence in the past) here comes a double bottom when least expected… the Market once it Flips will never look back ! All the Shorts are on the NET!
    c) Next it was last Night raid on the EURO.
    It fell from 1.3195 to 1.365
    I don’t think YOU can trade the market unless you also watch and understand the
    role of the EURO…. It moves the markets.
    I am going to use the Dow to represent the Market Indices…
    d) At the Opening it was sitting at 12970, then it started to fill the gap and hit 12930
    shorts are excepted to cover 12910 the day before closing.
    AH, but here comes the amazing use of the EURO that Bulls have learned to milk…
    It was now at support so it started to rise… the Dow never looked back
    and pushed to 13025… (Fed Talk) the line in the sand !!!
    e) But guess what ! the EURO had finished its role, could no longer push higher.
    f) So here comes the next trick… At a critical moment the Dow stated falling from
    1325 to 12990… AUCH for the Bulls!
    At that critical point where the Shorts had vision of success and were in the net. The
    News of the increased in dividends by some banks etc, hit the tape.
    g) You know the rest!.

    • SD1 March 14, 2012, 4:48 am

      It is not the Euro. It is a combination of factors. Money flows into and out of all kinds of things during the day, week, months and year. If you are convinced the markets are so easily manipulated and that you know who the perps are, it should be a slam dunk for you to trade what we are going through and make a whole lot of money. Don’t talk about manipulation like you know … retrospect is no way to trade the market.

  • BigTom March 14, 2012, 12:51 am

    Good account – a few years ago in Kaula Lampur I paid $35 for a bottle of California wine that sells for $7 here in the states. For the same Harley-Davidson I had bought new for $16,500 the previous year back in the states cost $35,000 in Malaysia. I think this free trade crap is a one way street down the ‘ol drain for us. Good story, Mario….I think you may be a lucky expat…..

    • mario cavolo March 14, 2012, 10:17 am

      Hey Big Tom, KL’s a pretty cool city, along with other parts of Malaysia is quite a first choice for many expats including my wife and I who are pondering our “exit China” strategy… as you may realize, they offer a reasonable residency program for foreigners…Cheers, Mario

    • BigTom March 14, 2012, 6:09 pm

      Mario – don’t know how familiar you are with KL, but check out the Bangsar Baru district if you haven’t already. The area is rather cosmopolitan in it’s own and interesting way, just as interesting as parts of Singapore. ‘La Bodega Deli’ was a fun spot in Bangsar and picked up a hand made Persian throw from the ’60’s era for a good price. Especially liked the ‘China Town’ district along with the nearby Twin Towers….Hey, good luck with your relocation if KL/Singapore area is your destination….rekindling my spirits to get back over to that part of the world again…..Thanks.