Trading Silver in the Dead of Night

Here’s a piece of advice for frustrated day traders: try night trading. While we’d be the first to concede that scalping at any hour of the day will never be easy pickings, many opportunities that we see in the middle of the night seem less challenging than the ones served up intraday. An obvious reason is that there just isn’t as much competition. To be sure, the predators who work the graveyard shift are not the kind of guys you’d want to sit down with at a poker table. They have special skills, like the adaptations of lizards and insects that live in the desert. For one, they are experts at gauging exactly how markets will react to news that hits the tape when relatively few are watching. This in turn allows them to get out of the way of buyers or sellers when mini-stampedes occur in relatively illiquid markets. By “fading” the action in this way, stepping aside when the panic-stricken come a-charging, DaBoyz are able to maneuver their prey into trading with them at atrocious prices.

Comex March Silver

Implicitly, that’s what we all want as traders – i.e., for the guy on the other side of the trade to discover immediately after it has been consummated that he’s been hosed. As it happens, our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method is well suited to traders who want to avoid being the patsy. It offers an effective way to sniff out the swing highs and lows where the other party to a short-term trade is likely to regret it. Look at the Silver chart above and you’ll see how very subtle such opportunities can be. By our lights, the area highlighted in yellow was the best place to buy Comex March Silver futures when bullion markets were at their absolute deadest early Wednesday morning. We used a technique called “camouflage” to identify a buy signal at 29.345 (a.k.a. point ‘X’) that triggered at exactly 2 a.m. Eastern.  A 10-minute ride to the peak that followed would have been worth $675 per contract, although we should mention that exiting at the top would have required both luck and skill. If you’re interested in developing the latter, consider taking the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on January 11-12. For further details, click here. And if you want to follow Rick’s Picks trading recommendations, which are updated in real-time around-the-clock, click here for a free trial subscription.

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  • Kilo January 7, 2012, 6:55 pm

    You guys are nuts. Paper silver….. lol. Best of luck with that. I’ll go back to polishing my physical and buying the dips.

    See ya in 3 to 5 kids.

  • D. Barber January 6, 2012, 2:08 am

    Personally I would hate paying this much for gold because it will be back to this price and less in several years. But on paper it is best to to hang onto for several more years, then switch to equities. That’s the way I see it and has worked so far for many years. Check the S&P to gold rations. I thought this was obvious, why am I writing? God help me.
    Joyce Meyers law. If any thing good can happen, it’s going to happen to me. ha ha ha ha hah honestly, I’m laughing.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 11:54 pm

    Looking at a one dollar bill. What does it say under the all seeing eye? Novus Ordo Seclorum. Now there’s an active imagination that knows no God. Creepy.
    Let me puke before market open.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 11:37 pm

    After 46 years of trading and still live? All you need is an active imagination.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 8:53 pm

    My hedge against everything is a short position in the Auzie. The most overvalued currency in history.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 8:14 pm

    If this,
    Ricks site is as popular as I think then I would expect gold to go down. But you are not going to stop momentum. Gold is the trade this year as well as the past ten years.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 7:43 pm

    My God, Japan has been tight on money creation while their exporters complain, New Doves at the Fed board of governors, on and on and on all I see as an older person that smells popcorn when I see Gunsmoke on TV or think about retiring to Hawaii when I remember Swiss Family Robinson Gold is going to the moon. It is, it is, it is. It really is.

  • Larry D January 5, 2012, 7:40 pm

    Who would have done better… is a question that cannot be answered, unless history can be reset like a chess board. From my seat, the President’s reach has exceeded his grasp, to put it mildly.

    Are the too big to fail/jail banks smaller? Has the oligarchy loosened its grip on big institutions? Is the national debt a larger or smaller percentage of GDP than a few years ago?

    Of course, you have to believe that the White House controls the economy, and the same policies that harmed us in the past somehow help us now. Clinton gave us a wonderful economy, even as the ink on the Glass-Steagal repeal was drying.

  • gary leibowitz January 5, 2012, 6:53 pm

    If the economy, much to everyones surprise on this board, is improving then that will actually work against gold/silver. As Obama is being bashed for his outragous spending spree over these last 3 years the economy is showing improvement across the board. The dollar has to do well in this scenario which will place pressure on commodities. The corporate earnings picture is a bit more cloudy. Overseas exposure will certainly hurt the bottom line.

    I don’t see a “falling off the cliff” outcome this coming year. I also don’t see inflation going up given the weakening nature of the EU.

    The manipulation theorists out there will find plenty to complain about this new year.

    I find it ironic that as Obama inherited an economic tsunami 3 years ago, prognosticators already lined up to buy guns, shelter, and canned food. I must say, given the situation we were in, who would have done better today?

    I am not proclaiming all is well, or that we will come out of this unscathed. I just don’t see the armageddon everyone is expecting. If we do hold off a recession this year then the odds of a severe recession in 2013 increases greatly. Real estate and other “assets” will most likely take it on the chin. Deflation pressures will mount. Can’t see many winners except cash.

    • Alvaro de Orleans-Borbon January 5, 2012, 7:42 pm

      I like the comment above and support it.

      Question is, will the straw finally break the camel’s back?

      If Yes (it’s a big IF !), when will it do so?

      I cannot tell, and probably nobody else.

      Muddling through 2012 now seem likelier than discontinuity, but if we attack Iran (a 3000 year old historic fault line there, beware!) or commit other similar über-foolishness, good luck to all of us, anything may happen.

    • ful_karboy January 5, 2012, 8:39 pm

      If the economy improves, silver might get a pop due to it’s industrial metal factor {More folks buying cell phones etc.} as well as some folks expecting inflation.

      Since it’s been so beaten down, value buyers are more interested now. I added a good bit to my SLV holdings last thursday then flipped those trading shares a bit too early tuesday.

      Would love to get more shots at that, since in time I expect silver to do just fine.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 5:28 pm

    Right on Rick. the safest and most reliable profits are made durin the evening. Since we have a three hour difference east to west coast it is more reliably cornered during the Asian markets is my thinking. Long time data indicates clearly that the FOREX markets amateur and professional profits are made during these hours.

  • D. Barber January 5, 2012, 5:14 pm

    If your looking for a big cave in the equities market forget about it. The Fed board of governors has been replaced by Doves. The results will begin to show up sometime within the next few months.

    Everything, I mean everything showing up later this year is gold positive. Still, and continues to be the best trade to watch.

  • Fred January 5, 2012, 4:19 pm

    Rick,

    Think we retest the bottom on Gold and Silver from 12/29…and do you still think we get that 30 point rally in the ES…or is that done based on the action overnight.

    Thanks

  • Tommy January 5, 2012, 3:25 pm

    If in glancing around the poker table you’re unable to identify the patsy. IT’S YOU. Thanks again Rick for the useful advice.

  • John Jay January 5, 2012, 6:23 am

    That is good advice Rick, and you are not alone in realizing it is a global market, and it is getting tougher to ride a trend. I read an article about this very situation. More than one big time player gets up in the middle of the night to see what is going on. One guy has the screens on all night in his bedroom and his wife is not happy about it. Alice in Wonderland time, you run faster and faster to stay in the same place!