Ten Predictions for Next Year

As promised, here are my predictions for 2012. So many things could go horribly wrong that it’s probably best that we simply try to live our lives to the fullest and not worry too much about the headlines.  Before I start listing away then, let me wish you all a happy New Year. Whatever the news brings in 2012, may you and yours enjoy good health, happiness and inner peace.

Here they are:

*  After taking a strong lead in the primaries, Ron Paul will be bludgeoned into defeat by the mainstream news media and its Evil Masters. The Establishment has far too much to lose if Paul becomes President, and it will fight him openly and shamelessly with every resource at its command.

*  European borrowing rates will threaten to explode above 7%, pushing the PIIGS into bankruptcy (although it won’t be called that). The euro’s fall will be arrested at $1.08 nonetheless, buttressed by a Rube Goldberg “restructuring” plan that, fortunately for the global financial system, no one will be able to understand.

*  ‘Mother’ nature will continue to rampage with yet more earthquakes in places where earthquakes don’t usually happen.

*  Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds will fall to 2% simply because there aren’t enough mattresses to hold the world’s money.

*  Despite its intrinsic worthlessness, the U.S. dollar will soar, pushing the Dollar Index above 90.

*  Toward the end of the year, deflation in the U.S. housing market will enter its climactic stage. Before the washout ends in late 2013, homes prices will have fallen 80% from their 2007 peaks.

*  Gold will stage a powerful rally after bottoming at $1445 in January, but the buying spree will fall well short of $2000. Silver will fare relatively worse, falling to $18.35 before finding traction and recovering into the low $30s.

*  Iran’s nuclear weapons program will be derailed, although not by economic or political sanctions.

*  Bird flu and/or Fukushima radiation could ultimately push all of the items on this list below-the-fold.  Except this one:

*  War will break out in the Middle East, and it will eventually be acknowledged as the start of a Third World War.

  • Kyle January 3, 2012, 8:50 am

    My Predictions:

    Gold & Silver will go up and down..Silver will end between $15 to $92; Gold will end between $950.35 to $3,000.15 range.

    ‘Mother’ nature will continue with tornadoes in the Midwest; earthquakes in California; Heavy snow on the east Coast; lots of humidity in southern Florida<< going out on limb on that one.

    Iran’s nuclear weapons program will be like it’s now, nobody knows.

    War will break out somewhere.

    Here is tough one to predict homes prices will fall<< like this one is a hard one to predict.

    The thing that is funny about these stupid predictions is including Rick here and the rest of these people on tv making predictions is,.. next year they will all claim that they got everything correct and want everyone to buy their crap/information for the next year…so far everyone got the 2008 collapse right..but not one of those people where being interviewed on a beach with hundrend dollar bills and gold coins falling out of their pockets!..investing is a risk and my past predictions are not guaranteed to make money, that's what these guys say, but they want investerors to pay for their weatherman predictions.

  • TKO January 3, 2012, 6:37 am

    The United States and allies are on the path to open war with Iran with a March/April commencement(barring a military coup against the mullahs). When this occurs, most of your predictions pan out viz: dollar soars, treasury rates drop, oil to $200, gold initially drops with stocks then catapults to $1900 etc etc. Loss of persian Gulf Oil leads to predictable major worldwide depression. 2012 will be a traders dream, or nightmare!
    Best of Luck to Rick and Family in the new year as well as all of the denizens of Rick’s Picks.

    • Mario cavolo January 3, 2012, 8:42 am

      Nightmare undoubtedly for the vast majority of traders… Rick suggests present weakness in gold down to 1400’s which was a sound call for many reasons on the charts, and with 1580 as a pretty well defined point on upper trend line resistance, so big bingo position myself short and wait, only to wake up and find gold at 1585… Go figure, I’m tired of it and I’m tired of losing money and no doubt I am not the minority… If a person can’t properly employ standard money mgmnt rules, they shouldn’t trade. When they do employ proper money mgmnt techniques they still lose by missing the moves when they do happen or getting stopped out and reversed to death by machines and money masters who run stops for fun along with a host of other tricks I,m sure which consistently separate us from our money. I recall Rick,s
      admonishments on the treachery in the options pits,
      etc…Cheers, Mario

  • Paul Marks January 2, 2012, 10:17 pm

    Dear Rick
    Congratulations on your work.
    You are a delight
    Your friend in caps is telling us his opinion.
    It’s ok we all express ourselves differently.
    He has not beaten anyone and so democracy and free speech is still alive.
    Your predictions are interesting..
    I’m not quite with you on your deflation front.
    5000 years shows the end of all government paper ends with debasement in an attempt to avoid default and the bureaucracy being thrown out. Deflation is the end game and as all debt is extinguished… But we are a few years away from that. Government finds printing money by whatever name you call it more efficient ( for their own existence ) and pacification of the masses than the 1930’s style outcome.
    Recall printing was not an option in the 30’s . The dollar was then linked to gold unlike today. This unlinking has given the government (at its desired rate ) the opportunity to print whatever it wants before the end game. The end game will come but not yet… 2015/2016 looks like a great fib number as well as sufficient time for gold to be allowed to rise higher to justify or back the toilet paper now being printed. I see gold well over 5000 history of 5000 years is not to be sneezed at. Every 300 to 400 years sees its ultimate madness. The 1600s saw tulip buubles. Today we see government paper. Nothing is new in the world it’s just repackaged.
    Government never repays debt, they default or debase. At this point including Europe the world is happy to debase just like governments . The players don’t want it to end. So the can will be kicked down the road… And then deflation will occur because all debt will go up. It’s a big deck of cards resting on one another. It doesn’t matter if you don’t owe you end losing just like MF players.. You merely get swallowed up.
    Martin Armstrong noted the paradigm of investors now abandoning govt paper and now investing into assets in the private sphere ( equities and commodities ) remember equities at least represent a claim against real assets which government has difficulty in controlling. Coorporations are sitting on mountains of cash which the government has not managed to steal.. Corporations are masters of tax minimization as well as selecting appropriate jurisdictions to operate from from which governments long arm has minimal impact.
    My humble predictions
    1. Dow Jones to be 30,000 by 2015
    2. Iran to be quietly put in its box . Israel with one of the most powerful nuclear capabilities will not sit idly by.
    If the USA is with them well and good. Jews will not let a 6,000,000 holocaust occur again. This deterrent will make the Iranians think many times before they try something.
    3. Putin in Russia is starting to look like he’s in trouble. The citizens of Russia are looking like they are going to have their own spring clean out.
    Iran gathers moral and physical help from Russia with a political clean out coming to Russia no politician is going to Support Iran when those funds can go to the 98% masses who did not participate in Putin’s elite wealth distribution.
    4. Monetary realignment in 2015/2016. Up to this time gold will be sought after vigorously. Up to at least 12,000 USD.
    5. WWIII already exists everywhere in the world. Everybody is looking for the big nuclear fallout.
    Governments today understand the principle of mutual assured destruction. What’s the point of shooting a nuke if you know have just wiped out 20,000,000 of your own people as a consequence. Terrorist bombers are not the equivalent of nuclear bombs.
    6. Do not expect linear projections in a non linear world to realistically eventuate. Look for the Black Swan events to occur.
    Paul Marks

  • mava January 2, 2012, 10:01 pm

    That fact that D.O. types in caps, shows us that he has a mental problem. He is here to be noticed, he is dying of never ever being noticed by anybody anywhere. So, lacking mental facilities to amaze others by wit, or by actually making forecasts that do come true, he has one option left, to shout and spit saliva at others around him.

    Look around DO, people just don’t do that. And, interestingly, you have confirmed that when you said “my opinion IN CAPS”, you know that you going to throw a tantrum, but you couldn’t stop yourself from doing it.

    I already told you before, you’d do yourself a great and timely favor, if you’d simply seek qualified help before it gets too far.

  • D. Barber January 1, 2012, 9:32 pm

    LOL
    I felt for sure you were making fun at the world with many or most of these predictions.

    I have and would expect housing prices after reaching levels way above historical levels to do what normally happens in bubbles, to continue that retreat below historical levels. Overshoot.
    Just because one area of the economy is deflating certainly does not mean wholesale deflation. The Fed has proven that it can and is willing to inflate the money supply to overcome and prevent that. Where is the next hotspot for that creation? War machines, gold, Treasuries?

    So far gold has helped finance all my other dummkopf home brewed ideas d.o. Gold normally consolidates a big move for 14 or 18 months (which will coincide with just about where EU runs out of options). Will this change at this stage of the Bull Market?

    Iran has never in 3000 years overrun a neighbor. I predict trouble will start more likely from Syria.

    After storing 45 lbs of various tobaccos for barter I will have personally finished smoking the last of it just in time for a crisis. It’s a good thing, you can’t easily smoke gold, or brew it.

  • M SMITH January 1, 2012, 9:15 pm

    No predictions here. The loss of freedoms has silently already come true, Obama signed NDAA, the financial boarders are closing as government seeks more revenues. The bankers control the government and will never give up power even if it means destroying the Republic. The MSM, an arm of the gov, will spread propaganda coming from the market manipulators to part investors from their wealth, the same goes from those beating the war drums. Every government has always turned against its own people to retain power. What do you think these two people(Lieberman & Sunsan Collins) thought when the internet was used to fuel the fires in MENA & Europe? Cyber terrorism & cyber crime, oh we have to shut down the whole internet, this is the mind set of those in power. There is no way to attack every server at once, it can’t be done, shutting down the net is no different than banning Free Speech. The same peole who have been lobbying for SOPA(CBS,ABC,DISNEY,CNET) are the ones who posted links for free content down loads of copy right material, stupidity of corporations & within congress to be manipulated by our back room dictatorship to push anti-Constitutional bills to become law. While millions still think the MSM will give the real news, others have found out there is more going on behind the curtain in DC & NYC. The fact that 5 sections of the U.S. has been the training ground of the red & blue forces of the U.S. military in croud control, manning FEMA Camps, calling up subcontractors for all sorts of jobs to ready the camps, even not yet to be covered by the MSM, the internet is full of sites with locations & how to advoid them! One last thing, all the bills passed into law were done to stop the people from protesting “when the government can no longer sell its bonds & the financial system crumbles to dust”.
    I started collecting coins at age 5, traveled the world serving in the U.S.Navy, found out I could find gem U.S. gold coins in many nations cheap compared to U.S. coin shops. That knowledge saved me lots of money while enjoying my hobby, it also allowed me to build my insurance policey if we have a reset to the system we have now. For every action there is reaction, this kind of fiscal irresponsibility by the men behind the curtain will never survive, history shows this & they know this, will they try to pull off what the Queen of England did in 1560? The government has been debasing the currency for decades & will do any thing to stay in power!

    • Buster January 1, 2012, 11:59 pm

      Apaerntly Obama signed into law the National Defense Authorisation Act this New Years Eve, thus treasonally denying the Bill of Rights & allowing indefinite detention without trial & even proof of a crime for any American citizen. The long denied FEMA camps are gearing up as we speak for the first wave of demonstrators.
      If WWIII started with 9/11, as many believe, then the American people should now be realising that they are also considered the enemy of the enemy of the world’s peoples,……the Elitists thugs who are & have been ruining the world for centuries. I should probably suggest now leaving the USA asap, if just to have a few years grace before the New World Order’s legal system goes global.

      http://www.goldstockbull.com/articles/r-i-p-bill-of-rights-1789-2011/

    • John Jay January 2, 2012, 4:53 am

      M Smith,
      Amen brother! I stopped posting on the “Comments” sections of various online newspapers and websites when they all required you to sign in with a Yahoo, Facebook, etc. ID. It is obvious all those entries get sent to the master database and can easily be pulled up and used against you on the whim of Big Brother.
      This is the only place I vent now, I figure the thought police will have an information overload from the big databases and won’t bother with me here just yet.

      As far as the MSM goes, the worse things get here in the USA, the more happy talk, cooking shows, sports and celebrity gossip they air. What a change from the 1960s when Vietnam, Civil Rights, and other vital issues received serious coverage in the MSM. Now, no matter what happens to the Bill of Rights, not even a sound bite on the news. We have fallen that far. I never thought I would see the day when I would miss the Earl Warren Supreme Court!

  • John Jay January 1, 2012, 8:20 pm

    My prediction for 2012 is for steadily increasing government surveillance and oppression of its citizens. As the economy continues to run on debt fumes, TPTB will only be concerned with COG, and the peasants be damned. More and more the talk in DC is that complaining about the government is “Treason” and “Terrorism”. Dissent will get you stripped of your citizenship and result in open ended imprisonment. In addition I think we will see a big push for a “Cashless” economy. Big Brother needs more tax revenue, pronto. And the underground economy is very likely much larger than anyone can imagine. So look for the government to phase out cash with the excuse that it enables drug dealing and, of course, “Terrorism”! Everyone will be required to use debit and credit cards which will all feed into the HAL 9000 for analysis and tax deductions from your account. Probably with a smart phone application. You can settle up with Uncle Sam later, citizen, if you feel you have been wronged. Ron Paul is the last hope for us to avoid this fate, let us see how badly the Iowa voting gets rigged for Romney.

    • Mario cavolo January 2, 2012, 1:54 pm

      Not bad JJ…

      The brainwashing in America tom the use of cashless and credit is none of the greatest heists ever pulled off on an entire society and indeed it just gets worse and worse for the sheep. Worse, people unfortunately don’t know how to properly respond to debt collectors…and how to simply disarm people,s stupid questions when you do business in cash…

      Speaking of the cash black market, a tiny speck in the states compared to here in China… Reasonably estimated at 8 TRILLION give or take…!

  • mario cavolo January 1, 2012, 3:45 pm

    A thoughtful set Rick, best of luck to us all in the coming year.

    I must confess as a faithful reader and contributor for quite awhile that I’m having trouble accepting the reality that DO continues posting offensive insulting type language toward others… As I am far from perfect and have my own methods to my madness at times in this life, I cede that you have yours too. I come here trying for professional, intelligent, respectful argument with a touch of personal releases of steam and passion by many of us along the way that stays within certain bounds which makes this an oustanding forum to gather as we face, to say the least, very difficult issues.

    Cheers, Mario

  • Rick Ackerman January 1, 2012, 12:54 am

    I feel blessed to have a true seer like you to vet my predictions, D.O. The fact that you actually agree with a few of them has made my day — made me feel luckier, even, than Lou Gehrig, Wallis Simpson, Dorothy Gale and Charles Luciano put together.

    • D.O. January 1, 2012, 5:32 pm

      FIRST OFF, LUCK DOES NOT EXIST.
      IT IS A BACKDOOR EXCUSE OF THE WEAK.

      SECOND, YOUR CURRENT MILD-MANNERED SARCASM,
      DOES NOT MATCH AT ALL, YOUR TRUE SHARKIAN NATURE.

      THIRD, ALL I DID WAS GIVE MY OPINION ON YOUR PREDICTS,
      AND ALL THE PANTIES HEREIN GOT ALL IN A BUNCH.

      AND FROM ON, WHENEVER I VISIT, I WILL -ALWAYS- USE CAPS,
      JUST TO GET THE NATIVES ALL RILED UP, IT SCARES THEM!
      (MAYBE I’LL ADD EXCLAMATION POINTS ALSO, THEY’LL GO NUTS).

      INTERESTING THING TO ME IS—NOT ONE REBUTTAL OF ANY KIND,
      IN ANY OF THE RESPONSES, ONLY ATTEMPTS AT PERSONAL ATTACKS.

      CONFIRMS MY CERTAINTY, THAN IN THE MODERNDAY WORLD,
      CONTENT MEANS NOTHING, ALL THAT MATTERS IS THE CONTAINER.
      AND THAT IS WHY IT IS SO EASY TO LIE, TO THOSE THAT ONLY SEE
      THE UNIMPORTANT, THE POLITICALLY CORRECT, SUPERFICIAL.

      IT USED TO BE CALLED BRAINWASHING.
      AT A MASS LEVEL.
      AND THAT’S THE 21ST CENTURY.

      ******

      Show a little class, D.O., and I’ll let you continue to post here in 2012. RA

  • Divergent Opinion December 31, 2011, 9:57 pm

    My opinion (IN CAPS) on your 10 predictions above.

    (My own personal commentary on 2012 is this—
    2012 will be worse than 2008, GUARANTEED).

    ———————-

    Ten Predictions for Next Year—by Rick Ackerman.

    1- After taking a strong lead in the primaries, Ron Paul will be bludgeoned into defeat by the mainstream news media and its Evil Masters. The Establishment has far too much to lose if Paul becomes President, and it will fight him openly and shamelessly with every resource at its command.

    D.O. SAYS—-I CONCUR THAT PAUL WILL NEVER BE PRESIDENT. BUT I GO A STEP FURTHER—IF BY SOME FREAK OCCURRENCE, HE DOES WIN GOP NOMINATION, HE WILL BE KILLED BY A LONE ‘PSYCHO’ ASSASSIN, AND WHOMEVER IS HIS VP, WILL GO ON TO BECOME 2012 PRESIDENT. DEMOCRATS HAVE NO CHANCE, YOU CAN PUT A MONKEY AS GOP CANDIDATE, AND HE’LL WIN IN 2012. (PERSONALLY, I LOVE SARAH PALIN, JUST BECAUSE I FIND HER VERY HOT, AND UTTERLY CLUELESS, SHE IS THE PERFECT PRESIDENTIAL ALASKAN ‘VALLEY GIRL’, EXACTLY WHAT USA DESERVES IN 2012. AND I CAN’T WAIT FOR HER TRUE NAKED PICS, CLIMBING THE ALASKAN ICE). FOR IT DOESN’T MATTER WHOM IS ‘PRESIDENT’ IN 2012, AMERICA IS GOING TOTALLY DOWN THE SH**HOLE, FROM 2012-2016. (AND I CAN EVEN TELL YOU, WHOM WILL CERTAINLY ‘PRESIDENTIALLY CORRECT’ THIS SITUATION IN 2016, BUT I WON’T. ALL I WILL SAY, IS THAT HE IS A MAN IN DRAG, PRETENDING TO BE A WOMAN, WHO BELIEVES IN VILLAGES RAISING YOUR CHILDREN).

    2- European borrowing rates will threaten to explode above 7%, pushing the PIIGS into bankruptcy (although it won’t be called that). The euro’s fall will be arrested at $1.08 nonetheless, buttressed by a Rube Goldberg “restructuring” plan that, fortunately for the global financial system, no one will be able to understand.

    D.O. SAYS—IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT YOU CALL IT, B UT HERE IS THE TRUTH—-IF THE PIIGS GO FULLY BANKRUPT, SO DOES ALL OF EUROPE, WITHOUT A DOUBT. AND IF EUROPE GOES UNCOLLECTABLE, SO DOES USA, WITH ZERO DOUBT. AND IF USA GOES FULLY DOWN TANK, SO DOES ENTIRE WORLD, INDUBITABLY.

    SO, YOU JUST PREDICTED—-THAT ENTIRE WORLD IS GOING DOWN IN DEFLATIONARY FLAMES, IN 2012.

    I WHOLLY CONCUR.

    3- ‘Mother’ nature will continue to rampage with yet more earthquakes in places where earthquakes don’t usually happen.

    I DO NOT KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT 2012 MAYAN PROPHECIES, TO COMMENT ON THIS.
    HOWEVER—I WILL SAY THIS. I HAVE ALWAYS CONSIDERED THE ‘EARTH WARMING’ A TOTAL MASS-CONTROLLING HOAX, BY UTTERLY PATHETIC SCUMBAG CLOWNS, LIKE AL GORE.
    SO, I GIVE YOU 50-50 ON THIS PREDICTION, SOLELY BECAUSE LATELY, THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, AND YES, THERE HAS BEEN IN INCREASE, IN UNUSUAL GEOGRAPHICAL CATASTROPHIC WORLD EVENTS.

    4- Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds will fall to 2% simply because there aren’t enough mattresses to hold the world’s money.

    D.O. SAYS—-OBVIOUSLY. AND YOU ARE CORRECT.
    AND I CAN POINT YOU TO A GREAT ARTICLE TO ADD TO YOUR KNOWLEDGE, BY A CURRENT MASTER OF USA INTEREST RATES,

    5- Despite its intrinsic worthlessness, the U.S. dollar will soar, pushing the Dollar Index above 90.

    D.O. SAYS—OBVIOUSLY. AND ONCE AGAIN, YOU ARE CORRECT. AND THE REASON IS SIMPLE, THE WORTHLESS FIAT DEBT ALREADY SWAMPS THE WORTHLESS FIAT CURRENCY, BY APPROX 300-1.

    6- Toward the end of the year, deflation in the U.S. housing market will enter its climactic stage. Before the washout ends in late 2013, homes prices will have fallen 80% from their 2007 peaks.

    D.O. SAYS—THIS IS AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS PREDICTION, AND ITS IMPLICATION, APPEAR TO BE WAY BEYOND YOUR OWN UNDERSTANDING. FIRST WORLD (USA AND EUROPE) REAL ESTATE 80% DOWN BY 2013? ARE YOU AWARE WHAT THIS TOTALLY MEANS, DEFLATIONARY-WISE?

    NO, I AM CERTAIN YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND YOUR OWN PROPHESY. BECAUSE IN ORDER FOR PREDICTIONS 4, 5, AND 6 TO COME TRUE, THERE IS ZERO–Z E R O–CHANCE, THAT PREDICTION 7 HAS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE.

    7- Gold will stage a powerful rally after bottoming at $1445 in January, but the buying spree will fall well short of $2000. Silver will fare relatively worse, falling to $18.35 before finding traction and recovering into the low $30s.

    UTTER BULLS***. JUST PEDDLING TO YOUR ONLINE DECREPIT FOLLOWERS, THE ETERNAL BLOCKHEAD GOLDBUGS, AND YOUR GOLD-SUCKER DUMMKOPF SUBSCRIBERS.

    I WONT GO INTO IT, BUT YOUR PREDICTION 7 CANNOT BE CORRECT, IF YOUR PREDICTIONS 4, 5, AND 6 ARE CORRECT. CATCH22. IMPOSSIBLE, BUBBA.

    8- Iran’s nuclear weapons program will be derailed, although not by economic or political sanctions.

    D.O. SAYS—WHO GIVES A SH**. WE ALL HAVE TO DIE.

    9- Bird flu and/or Fukushima radiation could ultimately push all of the items on this list below-the-fold.

    D.O. SAYS—WHO GIVES A SH**. WE ALL HAVE TO DIE.

    10- War will break out in the Middle East, and it will eventually be acknowledged as the start of a Third World War.

    GREAT CALL, WW111. HOWEVER, TOO EARLY. HISTORICALLY, MAJOR WORLD WARS DO NOT COMMENCE, UNTIL MAJOR DEPRESSIONARY ECONOMIC BOTTOMS.

    AND THE ODDS ARE, WITH THE CURRENT MEGA FKFDD UP MASSIVE DEBT SITUATION, IS THAT DEPRESSION WON’T BOTTOM, FOR A FEW YEARS— AND NOT JUST 1.

    SO SAY 2016-2018, THATS A BETTER TARGET, IMO, FOR THE BIG WW111, AND ITS NUKES AWAY, THIS TIME AROUND. HAHA. BACK TO THE UNDERGROUND CAVES. THAT IS, IF THERE ARE ANY HOMO ‘SAPIENS’ LEFT TO KEEP TALKING BULLS***. HAHA.

    • SD1 January 1, 2012, 3:06 am

      From Divergent Opinion “UTTER BULLS***. JUST PEDDLING TO YOUR ONLINE DECREPIT FOLLOWERS, THE ETERNAL BLOCKHEAD GOLDBUGS, AND YOUR GOLD-SUCKER DUMMKOPF SUBSCRIBERS.”

      Rick called a top in gold two years ago. Pretty much to the “T.” What have you called? Kindly forward us to a site where we can read your previous predictions.

      You come on here and do nothing but criticize and do it with the kind of trailer trash eloquence I would expect from someone who drinks home-brewed beer and buys generic brand Kraft Dinner to save himself fifteen cents.

    • Mark Uzick January 1, 2012, 11:15 am

      D.O. – Do you know what typing in all-caps signifies? – YELLING! or, possibly in your case, SCREAMING!

      Do you know what this behavior connotes about you? The rude and vacuous content of your screaming may give you some clues; but if you’re too removed from reality to make an objective self assessment, then try recalling any other comment on any forum typed in all caps that wasn’t the product of clueless nut-bag. I doubt you’re hopelessly stupid and I’m sure your opinions, right or wrong – sans the vitriol, are welcomed here or I wouldn’t bother to clue you in.

      Rick – I’m guessing that you believe that D.O.’s comments have some entertainment value or they would have been moderated; but don’t you think that allowing comments in all-caps is going a little too far?

      Making him behave himself would make his opinions seem less demented and more credible, even if divergent; so for the new year please be kind to D.O. by requiring that he clean up his comments. I think it’s unseemly to gawk and cackle at a crazy-man; it doesn’t prove that we are superior when we do that.

    • D.O. January 1, 2012, 5:39 pm

      SD1, YOU ARE VERY INSIGHTFUL.

      I DO LIVE IN A TRAILER, IT IS FULL OF TRASH,
      I LOVE HOME BREWED BEER ALL DAY LONG,
      ALONG WITH GENERIC MACARONI DINNERS;
      PLUS, WITH 15 CENTS I SAVED, GUESS WHAT,
      I WILL GIVE IT TO MY NEIGHBOR’S FAT WIFE,
      AND SHE’LL DO ANYTHING FOR THAT, HOHO!

  • martin schnell December 31, 2011, 7:29 pm

    My 10
    1. Obama wins in a landslide (with Clinton as VP) after Romney is severely damaged by battle with Paul.
    2. No earthquakes above 7.4, but big typhoons and hurricanes and overall wacky weather including bad monsoons – global warming related. Plus one close miss from a wayward comet.
    3. Food prices drive inflation higher. Causes include bad weather and lost productive land (to development, esp in China), and increasing populations. In response product packages will continue to shrink and a loaf of bread will soon fit comfortably in the palm of your hand. To cover up the changes the US will finally switch to the metric system (used by the entire rest of the world) so that for example a gallon will now be 4 liters, and so things like gas and milk will look cheaper.
    4. Broad economy stays barely afloat on back of low rates and even bigger government deficits, but city and local governments really start to cut as property tax revenue craters. Net impact is very low to slightly negative growth. Property taxes will exceed interest costs for many homeowners.
    5. People discover that dividend paying stocks (that everyone has piled into) can lose more in a year (or a day) in price than they pay in dividends in a year.
    6. The remaining individual investors leave the market, leaving only dueling trading algorithms. Instead of stock picks investors will choose their investment vehicles based on the brand of trading algorithm used (mutual funds will start to use branded algorithms). The S&P 500 will end the year wherever the algorithms want it to end – hey this year they balanced it out almost perfectly – that is true skill.
    7. The US will end the Cuban embargo to the dismay of the international community that has enjoyed having a lovely beach destination not over run by Americans.
    8. As the recession continues to bite people discover that privacy and convenience may not be worth the cost – leading to shared accommodations, car pooling, and even more kids living with their families (multi generational). But, foreign buyers will keep a floor under US home prices at least in coastal areas as a McMansion in Phoenix (okay not so coastal) is still cheaper than a cubbyhole condo in Shanghai.
    9. The US realizes that the only way to stop an out of control trade deficit (as the dollar rises) is to increase gasoline prices and encourage conservation. The Fiat 500 finally sells more than 1,000 units.
    10 China finally falls off the real estate cliff and the banking system implodes as local governments are shown to have been swimming buck naked, with not a fig leaf in sight. Gold demand soars and the price ends 2012 at $2,012 (oh and that is also where the algorithms want it to end!)

    • mario cavolo January 1, 2012, 3:56 pm

      Happy New Year Martin!…must parry with you on #10 the China parts… China is NOT falling off of anyone’s real estate cliff unless its part of a whole global nightmare that no entiy can escape. Even then, China real estate will go down far than everyone else’s. The muni level govt debts are there as u noted, but I suggest they are much more isolated RE developer/project issues, not any kind of representation of the broad market which is floating on TRILLIONS of mortgageless equity. Meanwhile, Bank of China and ICBC are the last two banks on earth you need to be worried about… On its own, China’s bubble will last at least several more years before any implosion or serious recession as occurred in Taiwan, Japan…those are the trend/trajectories to watch as China starts down that same road of easing in response to the tough ecoomic situation across the globe. Inflationnnnnn…….Cheers, Mario

    • mario cavolo January 1, 2012, 4:00 pm

      oh, your #6 is brilliant, could be right on the mark, close to a perfect fully rigged system that just generates profits and fees long and short all year long without caring much at all which way it goes…scary scary scary how few people let it stick in their minds that most of the volume is HFT machines….

  • Seawolf December 31, 2011, 5:42 pm

    An article in “The Nation” on why the GOP bosses fear Ron Paul.
    http://www.thenation.com/blog/165290/why-do-gop-bosses-fear-ron-paul

  • brendan December 31, 2011, 10:22 am

    War in ME, Europe bankrupt and in depression, global deflation, and you predict gold price rises. What happens to food prices when trade barriers/currency restrictions explode? Everyman/country for themsleves? I guess you are predicting the 70’s Stagflation. Better celebrate to the fullest tonight at New Years party.

    • Rick Ackerman January 1, 2012, 12:27 am

      I agree that food is likely to trump Krugerrands when the economy moves to barter, Brendan. Concerning New Year’s Eve, as seems to happen every year, I’ve been unanimously chosen as the designated driver.

  • Samuel December 31, 2011, 3:49 am

    WE can outrun the media, IF we get involved.

    http://www.ronpaul2012.com/sign-up-as-volunteer

  • joe U December 31, 2011, 2:54 am

    Pretty gutsy forecasts! WW3 and deflation, easy to remember those.

  • Rich December 31, 2011, 1:49 am

    Aloha Rick et al
    I find all of the “predictions” reasonable except Dr Ron Paul, who spells doom for monopoly media brainwashing.
    2012 may see a global crash as posted on Trade Blog.
    Time will tell.
    Hau’oli Makahiki Hou

  • Desert December 31, 2011, 1:06 am

    All good, but not before we see the rally from hell. SPX 1375.