Monsters from a Day Trader’s Mind

[Rick’s Picks sometimes ascribes human, animal or even demonic qualities to the vehicles we trade, most particularly the ever-vexatious Mini-Index futures. The following, first published here nearly a decade ago, reminds us why. RA]

In all the galaxy, could there exist a nastier little critter than the S&P futures? Yesterday, watching the [March] contract leave its hellishly agitated footprints all over my intraday charts, I was reminded of the creature in the movie Alien. In its “cute,” post-larval stage, the then knee-high monster resembled a small dragon, with tiny buzz saws and metallic razors in place of reptilian scales, and venomous syringes instead of teeth.  Those who saw the movie will not forget the way the creature skittered around the space station floor, finally disappearing for a few excruciating minutes before exploding, with a wicked, other-worldly cackle, from the chest of a hitherto unsuspecting male crewman.

And so it was yesterday with the [E-Mini S&Ps], as they feinted and darted, bounded and careened, emerging with a bloody victory over all but the very hardiest of day traders. Talk about vicious! The S&Ps would make house pets of monsters such as the one in Alien. Thus, on Thursday, amidst brutal tedium and, until the final hour, trendlessness that was unusual even for this so-far excruciating post-holiday period, did the [March] S&Ps parry an intrepid army of traders, never sustaining a rally or decline for long enough to allow them to draw an untroubled breath. The invincible tormentor of these determined warriors is a Freudian nightmare come alive, an all-knowing predator whose every movement, at any instant of the day, is willed by a thousand ids and egos, each struggling to come out on top.  But even when the S&Ps are momentarily at rest they throb with menace, fueled by the unspent fear and greed that has lured traders into the bloody arena.

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  • Chris T. January 16, 2012, 10:21 pm

    chronological order of posts all messed up?

  • Chris T. January 16, 2012, 10:16 pm

    This comment by Rob Kirby fleshes out your wonderful Alien analogy. Because goldseek links to both this site and also RK’s comment, many of you have seen it perhaps, but if not, it is definitely worth a read.
    I found especially interesting (new to me so far) his comment about Corzine’s even more craven-than-I-thought actions in the bankruptcy filing.
    See:
    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1326469500.php

    Now, one question:
    If “they” can do this, produce the results Rick mentions above, and the what Kirby shows with respect to Bill Gross and PIMCO, why even bother to trade against them?
    Why always play the sacrifical lamb? Without all those lambs out there, who would take the other side?

    Just wondering….

    • Rich January 17, 2012, 1:08 am

      Great essay Chris.
      Posted it on Silver Senator. thanks…

  • ebear January 16, 2012, 2:05 pm

    S&P Futures:
    They mostly trade overnight. Mostly.

  • Bradley January 14, 2012, 11:55 pm

    Darn.
    I was so looking forward to reading D.O.’s attempts to defend his next 5 WRONG calls. You know, reversion to the mean…and in his case, the REALLY mean…

  • John January 14, 2012, 9:46 am

    Sounds like a perfect description of why swing trading is so much more relaxing than day trading!

  • bc January 14, 2012, 12:32 am

    Congrats Mario. More important by five orders of magnitude than this trading stuff. I envy you.

  • bc January 13, 2012, 10:54 pm

    Giving human attributes to mere objects is anthropomorphism. For real excitement, trade TVIX.
    Not for the weak of heart, or the weak of wallet.

  • Rich January 13, 2012, 10:40 pm

    Friggatriskaidekaphobia in fact…

  • gary leibowitz January 13, 2012, 9:52 pm

    The market seems to trading in water where every move is in slowww motion. I love fast moves, even if it is a whipping motion.

    My model has called for a minimum of 1340 on the SPX for any notion of a top. Obviously I could be wrong but until the market shows a decisive deterioration I will stick to it. In fact I have been leaning towards a possible muddling thru year with an upward bias. Not long ago I was in your camp, where the market falls off a razors edge. I hope the market telegraphs its moves early enough for me to jump in and out.

    In fact I can see a good argument for commodities and the stock market to do well, at least thru the first half of this year.

    • bc January 13, 2012, 11:29 pm

      I agree. I keep trying to save these guys too. They accuse me of having an agenda. It reminds me of watching snake handlers be amazed when they get bit. If you have to gamble, gamble on VXX and TVIX. At least these are positive definite (look it up), and you are just betting that “something is going to happen, up or down”.

    • Mario cavolo January 14, 2012, 12:03 am

      DO, Hey! Do I write English or what? I said it before and I won’t say it again.

      Keep your rude arrogant disrespectful comments off our board here! Period! Now do it!

      From here on the chart, Gold could just as easily still climb to test the 1680 level as not and continue lower.
      Maybe it will, maybe it won’t and while one has strong convictions and evidence on positions, all of us know how many times they reverse and go the other way for myriad reasons. (myriad’s a cool word, eh, Rick? ) Meanwhile a trader takes positions, puts stops in place to manage the risks.
      That make it sound a lot easier than it is in reality
      where individual traders get whipsawed to hell and
      back. In my experience, losses are due to poor risk management regardless of how good the trade guidance is. How many times have we been whipped long or short to lose money only to find the price of the asset later right back where it started? If I could with 100% certainty say that oil will never again fall below 98 I will go long oil with every cent I own and not worry about it, but reality ain’t that simple…

      Have a good weekend everyone, at least I’m enjoying the amazing joy of our bambino, he’s ten weeks now! …Cheers, Mario

      • Rick Ackerman January 14, 2012, 2:53 am

        Mario: I’ve asked my webmaster to take further steps to bar D.O. from this forum. Thanks for your patience in the meantime — and my apologies to all in the forum for his rancid, juvenile posts.

      • mario cavolo January 14, 2012, 7:03 am

        Amen! A mehaye! 🙂

      • Robert January 14, 2012, 11:29 pm

        Awwww… you removed his post before I had a chance to see what wonderfully new and creative name he had for me…?

        I was getting bored with “cement headed gold bug”

      • Rich January 17, 2012, 12:29 am

        Not on my account Rick.

        I was kind of looking forward to another wise guy hoisting himself on his own petard.

        A search of RA posts for DO or Divergent Opinion did not find any previous predictions other than gold crashing 5 times RA said it would rise, incorrect to be sure.

        In related news, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a well-crafted prescient piece of insightful New Year’s Gedankenexperiment linked here:

        http://tgr.ph/v4fvim

        ‘2012 could be the year Germany lets the euro die, Year IV of the Long Slump’

        “Prepare for a Wall Street squall first. ”

        I wish all traders a Happy New Year of the Water Dragon (23 January 2012 to 9 February 2013, with peaceful profits a plenty…

  • Rich January 13, 2012, 9:42 am

    Aloha All
    Looking for a monster down day led by Gold ‘n AAPL.
    Mahalo nui.

    • mario cavolo January 13, 2012, 2:03 pm

      indeed Rich, misery upon misery, ruining my state of mind and continuing to frustrate my intelligence to no satisfying end…M

    • mario cavolo January 13, 2012, 3:15 pm

      …actually Rich, and I mean strictly for fun and the torture of knowing how little we know, I’ll bet you right here and now that the SPX does not break below its 60 minute chart uptrend line, it will hold at 1284-1285….

      Ha, if I’m right, I owe ya’ my friend 🙂 Cheers, Mario

    • gary leibowitz January 13, 2012, 5:42 pm

      Mario,

      You lost your bet. I actually expect a nice trade for both sides. If I am right we should hit 1240 on the SPX within one weeks time. If that holds expect a nice rally of 100 SPX points to that elusive 1340 range I had been expecting for a while now. I had thought that 1340 was “the” top but now now so sure. Lets see if this plays out like I hoped.

    • Rich January 13, 2012, 7:28 pm

      Triskaidekaphobia

    • Mario cavolo January 13, 2012, 11:26 pm

      Yep ! Clear as a bell for the record…next round’s on me Rich…Cheers, Mario

    • Rich January 14, 2012, 12:51 am

      SPX closed above your range today Mario, congrats.
      Interesting times to be sure.
      Big4 twice as short as long Dow Industrials,
      and long Yen with a higher target…

  • TKO January 13, 2012, 5:21 am

    An artful commentarial blast from the past. The masters have thus far papered over the problems with some success, even hard desicions vis a vis Iran are being deferred/rethought. Greed resumes. Go long the S&P and make the alien your friend.

  • John Jay January 13, 2012, 4:37 am

    The ES was smooth compared to the ZB on a 15 minute chart. Everything is choppy, I don’t know if it is the computers or nervous traders at the big firms. Or it might be something else. The MF Global trustee says 72% is all that is going back to the customers for now.
    It seems MF went BK as a Securities firm, not a Commodity Broker, so creditors are first in line, not brokerage customers. Fisk and Gould would be proud, nothing has changed on Wall Street except the names!

  • RidetheWave January 13, 2012, 3:26 am

    Rick,

    I like you more and more every day. Aliens is one of my favorite movies and its analogies are so appropriate here. The slogan of “Alien” was “In space no one can hear you scream.”

    Perhaps in our cyberspace world of trading and one where collusive Skynet (Terminator analogy) like algo’s run the show, we should not expect any less of these markets than an unpredictable and thus inherently frightening market in which we participate.

    Technology and advancements aside I still believe that primary trends rule the day and everything in the interim that is distracting otherwise, whether it be on hyperspeed or not, and while at times trade-able, is noise.

    And to carry your Aliens analogy further, having been a nerd who read the books based on the movies….per this book… it was discovered that Aliens would not attack those who fought back and showed bravery and near reckless abandon to act dominant vs. the Xenomorph…..

    http://www.amazon.com/Aliens-Criminal-Enterprise-Dark-Horse/dp/1595820035/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_b

    Much like that conclusion, those that have a plan, HP or otherwise, or show conviction and belief that they are right and will be proven so as long as they manage their cash prudently, will beat down the Xenomorph or rather, like Ripley just survive, which per 2008 should you have survived was a win in and of itself……