My Predictions for 2012…

I hadn’t intended to do a “Rick’s Picks Predictions for 2012” because I’m skeptical that anyone could get it right. So many things could go wrong next year that it’s difficult for me to imagine the world muddling through the month of February, let alone muddling along for another twelve months. Still, I’ll give it my best shot in Friday’s edition, since I’ve already skirted the topic in an interview yesterday morning with radio host Al Korelin.

It’s tempting to try to stand out from the pack, predicting things that few of my guru peers expect. However, I’ll go out on a limb with this one here and now:  I expect Apple shares to be trading no higher than they are trading now, and perhaps significantly lower.  See you Friday!

  • D. Barber January 4, 2012, 3:20 am

    Banks are holding back lending until the average American needs a loan, they hold the assets, and the economy is ready to advance. Do the same, hold on to your gold until the middle class is broke, malinvestment is cleared out in spite of the government or fed, and …. Sorry scoundrals!– is Jesus Christ returning?, the next novel move forward many years from now!!!
    Thanks Rick, for allowing this beer sodden input. :__).
    Let’s all float the Middle Fork next year,
    DB

  • D. Barber January 4, 2012, 2:35 am

    There will come a time in the distant future when it will be most adventagious to turn gold into equities, venture. That’s what it is for.
    Not now. Give it some time.

  • D. Barber January 4, 2012, 2:30 am

    Locked into every ounce of gold is the labor it took to find it and manufacture it.

  • D. Barber January 4, 2012, 2:23 am

    The multiplied return available from fiat paper continues to intrigue the multitude despite the obvious failures. Not unexpected.
    Gold therefore still has a long way to go.

  • D. Barber January 4, 2012, 2:02 am

    An honest measure=gold.

  • D. Barber January 4, 2012, 1:52 am

    Not one thing has changed that would decrease gold. Central banks ARE buying gold instead of selling it once a big issue. Central banks are increasing the money supply. Less trust in governments and central banks. An increase in geographical areas buying gold.
    Everything falling into place for gold to appreciate.

  • D. Barber January 3, 2012, 9:21 pm

    Half the population or more has just been raped and pillaged by corrupt politics, bankers, Wall Street. How can 90 percent of the people believe that it should operate as a healthy economy?

    I plead Psalm 10.

  • DanLuke December 30, 2011, 6:39 am

    It seems certain to me that this nation is going to have to deal with severe shortages when the banking system collapses. This will mean chaos and suffering which opens the door for dictatorship and war. Not willing to give up hope that we can learn from our mistakes, adopt good money again and move on to a much more sustainable future. Having a real leader like Ron Paul in office will be a huge advantage. He could actually re-unite this nation with the advantages of following our constitution and the rule of law. Nobody to trust except the one trust worthy man we have. Having a Ron Paul is a requirement for the rebirth of America. Funny thing I have observed. Many people will say that they like part of his message, but that most of his ideas are kooky. When pushed to name his kooky ideas, it becomes clear that they really don’t know what they are talking about. In fact, they find out that they agree with everything, if they will just do some research for themselves, instead of repeating what they heard. I challenge those of you who disagree with what I just said. Pick something that you think you don’t like about Ron Paul. Then research his position for yourself instead of listening to your past sources of info. You will discover that somebody lied to you.

  • bc December 30, 2011, 12:32 am

    Now that the hyperinflation nonsense is passing, it’s time to focus on what is coming. Hard times in China, but they have the advantage of totalitarianism (in credit contractions, this actually is a huge advantage because government can decide to screw the bankers unlike here in the West). Hard times will come to Europe. Many say less will come here, but that’s because they don’t understand how screwed up we are. Hard times are coming here on all fronts. Our military profligacy will end abruptly because we can’t afford it. Our banking (really FIRE) sector will contract a lot. Being 40% of our private sector, this combined with military contraction, will reduce aggregate demand a lot. This will lead to GDP contraction of about 20%. Powerful interests will play games with the numbers, but this will fool no one. The elections will be interesting (like the Chinese curse) and the outcome is uncertain. This is how we will be tested. The boomers, for the first time in our lives will choose between our own narrow interests, and the fate of the republic. We will either be a true “Greatest Generation”, or a bunch of self absorbed losers. No one can predict which.

    • mava December 30, 2011, 1:29 am

      Is the hyperinflation nonsense passing, bc? With tens of trillions created at a push of a button, this still seem to be just a nonsense to you? And the printing is only picking up the speed as we speak. Now, ECB is printing like mad, so that helps the FED in its efforts.

      How much needs to be printed to qualify the hyperinflation as anything but nonsense to you? Thousands of trillions? Trillions of trillions? Can there ever be a hyperinflation? Or is it that no matter what you do, be it printing trillions of trillions of trillions out of thin air, it would still be deflationary, or would you call that “stable money”?

    • DG December 30, 2011, 7:08 am

      I think the boomers have already conceded “Greatest Generation” to their folks, at birth. At this point, they could just stop while they are way behind.
      I can’t imagine the boomers will all of a sudden transform from “me” to “we”.
      Now give me my damn unfunded pension, kid.
      I think “self absorbed losers” is a lock.

    • mario cavolo December 30, 2011, 7:33 am

      Indeed, Beijing will happily put the screws to the bankers and banking system as needed as may be deemed best for the overall society and economy….wish we had that kind of thinking back in the states…Cheers, Mario

  • gary leibowitz December 29, 2011, 9:56 pm

    I don’t understand why everyone is in a time freeze. This is not 2009. In fact we might even be in the “sweet spot” for the next 6 to 12 months. The EU is contracting. No threat of inflation there. Chine is .. well who knows what China ‘s economy is really doing, but for the time being it is slowing. Domestically jobs seem to be slowly coming back, and sales are up moderately over last year. Zero rate policy still in effect and the dollar has to do well simply because the rest of the world is just getting their act together about the run-a-way spending and debt.

    Today we have Gold plunging, when seasonality states it should be going higher. We have a stock market that is holding up very well. Our economy is on the right track with political will to lower the debt.

    As an investor, and a pretty darn bearish one, I must state the following. If the market holds up past mid-February than I would be comfortable with my assumptions above. If we do have a crash in that time frame then all bets are off. I guess it all depends on next quarterly earnings.

    Regardless of how next year turns out I do believe we will enter another nasty economic recession/depression. I also find it disconcerting that Obama is still being blamed for where we are today. With the largest global dam bursting 3 years ago, what in the world does anyone expect? Do you really think anyone, I mean anyone in charge these last 3 years would have done better? That’s like asking for the comic strip character Superman to come to life. I don’t begrudge anyone for wanting someone in office that follows your own agenda, but to constantly bash this president when 3 years have gone by and the world has not come to an end. In fact this bear sees some light at the end of the tunnel.

    As for Gold, like I stated many times, betting against a stronger dollar is a losing proposition. I can see it taking off from here over the next 12 months.

    Have a good year from a bear that might be thawing out.

    • Buster December 29, 2011, 10:39 pm

      What Obama is guilty of is being a front man to TPTB, hence why he has lied about what he would & wouldn’t do. In place of his promises he has rewarded those who should be in prison with yet more power in his government. Everything he has & hasn’t done is in tune with the corporate fascist songsheet & a betrayal of the people he governs. I suggest watching ‘The Obama Deception’, which I believe is a fairly accurate portrayal of the man.
      Sorry, giving Obama any slack is a very misguided notion.

  • mava December 29, 2011, 8:52 pm

    Two points, Buster, that I humbly think you may-be overlooking:

    First, No one, not even RP can turn things around now, which gives a meaning to an expression “a point of no return”. Otherwise, it could be said that we can create an infinitely bad mess, and always be able to escape by having one good leader in power. This is what I call magic.

    The reason that I believe RP won’t matter, is because he has to become a dictator to turn things around! Since a majority of voting paupers receive from “the government”, they simply will not allow RP to make the necessary changes. His ideas, although very much pleasant to me, are a pipe dream, as it is too late to act.

    You understand? If I am on a bad street and a gang approaches, I may have the chance to outrun them or fight them, – I have not reached the point of no return yet. If I wait till they surround me and tie my hands and feet, then my decision to fight or flight will be entirely dependent on the gang’s decision to allow me to do so, and of course, they won’t. Now, I am beyond the point of no return.

    RP today, will have to secure the blessings of majority of the population to do what he wants, however the majority is no longer minded that way. The majority is now receiving and contr-positioned to interest of the minority that is producing. We have past the point of no return. RP is too late.

    Second, this is actually a well known argument in favor of the state, that even if we do not create some evil, some other nation will, and then we would be glad to have the state to be able to unleash an equally bad evil in self-defense.

    The solution to this is to defund and to de-staff the evil state somewhere by allowing the capital and the human talent to always escape from there to here. Remember, that the bankers that prepared the world for the WWI and then WWII, started that by restricting the movement of funds and people, precicely to allow the growth of the evil state somewhere, without the drain of resources toward free economy. This is why founders were so insistent on freedom of movement of people and capital, and it means that there should be only an administrative border around US, that underlines the extent of the jurisdiction, but has no effect whatsoever on the free movement of people and capital.

    • Buster December 29, 2011, 10:20 pm

      Not very much gets overlooked, really, though an awful lot doesn’t get explained. Personally, I think the only purpose now left is simply to understand, since with the shortfalls in human nature, I think it was all inevitably a lost cause when they ate the darned apple! Where we are & where we’re headed was always inevitable based on our psychological make-up.
      Yes, the free movement of people & capital does give the opportunity to vote with our feet & money, & ultimately reward or punish any system of running a country, ….if there is an alternative! TPTB have been quite successful at making certain there are no properly functioning alternatives due to their world financial system & military etc, & this also partly explains their desire for a one world government & currency regime, which is where we’re undoubtedly heading, IMHO. It’s just how we get there now that is the question in my mind. But despite this, I think there is a strong possibility of a ‘Ron Paul moment’ occurring fairly soon. We’ll just have to wait & see what history has in store for us all.

    • mava December 30, 2011, 12:04 am

      You’re quite right about globalization being a move to exclude even a possibility of freedom being an alternative anywhere on earth.

      I think we can quite surely say that fundamentally, a globalization is absolutely intentional anti-freedom development.

  • mava December 29, 2011, 7:19 pm

    So, let us say he is heading for the White house. Then what? He gets elected and then the secret service assassinates him. Now what? The country will be in an emotional state and to replace RP it will select some despotic dictator.

    Besides, isn’t it better to now let Obama get his second term and to preside over the collapse? Why would you allow him to kick the can down the road only to dispose of of it into RP hands, just when it is ready to blow. The collapse is irreversible now, and it just doesn’t matter what RP wants to do.

    • Buster December 29, 2011, 8:23 pm

      For the record, I don’t subscribe to the view that any leader or party can solve the real problems or stop the world from going where it’s heading. However, in theory at least, the financial system could be fixed very quickly by abandoning the present debt based currency & issuing a non debt based one instead, as JFK tried to do just before his federal execution. Further, the rest of our problems could be eased greatly by administering a just legal system, that being the main responsibility of any worthy government.
      The only problem then would be to keep the parasites from getting back in again, as they always have done in the past after a ‘Ron Paul moment’ was achieved for the umpteenth time in history.
      Ultimately, though, since the accumulation of wealth & power that the Banksters’ financial model allows, & the military that it enables to grow, sooner or later, someone, somewhere will upset the temporary peace with the aim of world dominance. So, some would argue, the Bankster’s empire of the last so many centuries has been a necessary evil, even keeping at bay worse despots. Personally, I choose to condemn the lot of them.
      Despite my respect for Ron Paul I will not put any faith in him either, even though I think he could well be a temporary reprieve, for the reasons previously mentioned.

    • gary leibowitz December 29, 2011, 10:04 pm

      Didn’t Bush Jr do just that! 2 terms and a total wreckage of the economy. The rich made almost 3 times more than the average joe in that time.

      It certainly helped the Dems get elected over the short term. Didn’t last though.

      When people are hurting they blame “all” that are in power. Don’t count on a great run from the Republican Party come congressional reelections.

    • fallingman December 30, 2011, 4:22 pm

      I’m a Ron Paul guy, but yeah. I’d actually like him to come up just short, stay alive, and allow time for the movement to get strong enough to be effective post breakdown.

      I’d like to hang a Hoover on O.

      RP has done yeoman duty, but it isn’t about the man.

  • Buster December 29, 2011, 6:36 pm

    I wonder if the increasingly desperate media attack on Ron Paul is an indication that he’s heading for the white house in 2012??
    http://www.republicmagazine.com/news/the-racist-newsletter-gambit-revisited-the-smearbund-escalates-its-assault-on-ron-paul.html

    Now that would make for an interesting 2012!
    Personally I think it is a possibility sooner or later, since I believe someone is due to turn on the organisation behind the international banking cartel, & also that America will withdraw somewhat from the world stage sometime in the not too distant future. Ron Paul, or somebody like him, seems to fit the bill nicely.

    • DG December 30, 2011, 6:59 am

      Yes, it is surprising how hard the MSM are pushing back on Paul. Pulling the race card, now? Seems desperate. I guess they had to since it will probably be difficult to dig much up on a lifelong Congressman who has a nasty habit of speaking his mind, not his next election poll.
      I think Obama will win, though. The “W made an 8 year deep hole” bit is going to be nauseating….but will probably be enough for a win. sigh.

  • j December 29, 2011, 5:14 pm

    Wow! Rick….it seems one of your 2012 predictions is that Sinclair will be proven wrong with his bullish gold targets….not many have the stones to disagree with the “Master” that have been gold bulls aswell….(of course all those that have completely missed golds excellent run since 2000 have been Sinclair negative) ….opinions are just that as you know its all about the price action on the charts.

    Again those that have been calling for golds top since $400 have little meaning to those who have been following those who have correctly called golds action, so I find it very interesting that you are going gold negative, based on the price action….either your going to be right Rick or your comment (the #1 gold guru’s outlook is now incorrect) is a clear indication of capitulation amougst the bulls and todays retest of the $1535 area is the bottom for 2012

    A healthy, successful New Year Wish to all!

    J

    • Rick Ackerman December 29, 2011, 6:11 pm

      I am going gold skeptical, not gold negative. No matter what happens, though, I expect gold to hold its purchasing power relative to all other assets and investables save farm land. Concerning Sinclair’s forecasts, I’ve always had trouble believing there will be enough money in mattresses when the SHTF to drive gold quotes to the heights he talks about. And although a short squeeze on paper gold seems plausible, and with it the theoretical potential to send the POG to $50,000 an ounce, in practice the regulators are all but certain to give the bullion bankers who are short the stuff a mulligan.

    • j December 29, 2011, 7:36 pm

      Understood Rick!…..gold is now in a “prove the move” situation

      I’m old enough to remember alot of those advisors back in the last 1980 gold bull market that had $5000 gold and $500 silver calls and they are yacking today of the same (we won’t mention who) atleast Sinclair missed the 80 high by only $2

      Cheer$!

  • Brian December 29, 2011, 4:22 pm

    Not sure of my history, but I believe Napoleon warned of forming too strong a picture of how you imagine a battle will unfold. You don’t want to be locked into a rigid plan as things change.

    And here we are making predictions. I do this a lot, unfortunately, and it muddies my trading.

    • fallingman December 29, 2011, 5:42 pm

      Heard dat. I do it too, but less and less as I age. I remind myself…

      The world that exists “tomorrow” will be the result of a gazillion individual decisions, large and small made throughout the millenia, including today.

      We can’t know with any certainty what that world will look like. There is no pre-destined future. No one will ever have “tomorrow’s newspaper.” @!%$ happens and the world changes.

      Does that mean we can’t profitably surmise what’s coming a winning percentage of the time in the financial arena? Of course not. RA and his crew are successful traders.

      It means the future, by its nature, is unknowable to any level of detail, so you makes your bets and you takes your chances…and you make sure you manage money with that uncertainty in mind. It why I’m an option seller and why so many option buyers don’t win enough to survive, much less make money…and the ones who do rely on playing only high percentage setups vs. hopes or hunches.

      You can’t play this game, for the most part, without making a directional bet, but there’s a whole lot more to successful trading than that.

      Anyway, thanks for your post Brian. You got me thinking this am.

    • Mercurious December 29, 2011, 7:40 pm

      The world that exists “tomorrow” will be the result of a gazillion individual decisions, large and small made throughout the millenia, including today.

      We can’t know with any certainty what that world will look like. There is no pre-destined future. No one will ever have “tomorrow’s newspaper.” @!%$ happens and the world changes.
      ________________________________

      This is essential to understand, IMHO. Yes, there are things like herd instinct, mass psychology, propaganda, spin, hysteria etc. that influence large group mood. But at any given moment, something can go off in your head that moves you away from that. And with what we see in social media or viral influence, there is an incredibly low threshold of influence needed today to move the needle IF the underlying bias is there. This is how you can see an explosive growth of protest and resistance materializing out of nowhere: social media influence is often the catalyst for previously unexpressed attitudes.

      One of my adjustments over the years has been to learn NOT to discount the possibility of directional swings AWAY from destructive behavior. While I always want to be ready for the worst–I just bought $2200 worth of long-term food last week–I also need to remember that Armageddon is not the only possible outcome. Keeping options open as well as keeping one’s mind open to all possibilities will maximize our chances of coming through the years ahead relatively intact.

  • socrates964 December 29, 2011, 3:26 pm

    850-1013-1220-1484-1820-2248-2791-3482-4362

    These are the magic numbers for gold – will always overshoot a bit (by say $100) – but gives a reliable guide to the likely peak for the year. Hence 2011 was 1820, 2012 will be 2248, 2013 – 2791.

    (Based on Fib ratio projections of the primary downtrend (250 + 600*fib^(n/2)), where n is a whole number.

    We may well have made a bottom here, but the absolute low here would be 1484 (and in general, it doesn’t get violated).

    Unfortunately, doesn’t work for silver and looks to me that we need a lot of consolidation before we get a new downleg in the GS ratio, however, L-T ABCD pattern seems to me to say 70-33-60ish-23 – Will probably take until 2013, but if gold is trading between $2250 and $2800, this will indicate a silver price in the $98-122 range.

  • Phil December 29, 2011, 1:26 pm

    Start any predictions with a 10% rise in the US$ in the next few months. Gold, silver, oil, commodities and stocks will all get cheap in a hurry.

  • Mark Uzick December 29, 2011, 8:01 am

    Gold should be even more volatile in 2012. I’ve heard predictions that the Chinese will purchase the equivalent of about 1/3 of gold’s global mine output and there are claims that the PRC is in negotiations with a number of miners for long term contracts to purchase their entire production; since there’s no price advantage to bypassing the gold exchanges, this would seem to indicate a lack of confidence in the ability of the exchanges to make delivery or maybe a lack of faith in the quality of what’s delivered.

    I seem to recall reading something about The Central Fund Of Canada (a closed end fund) also buying gold and silver direct from miners for similar reasons.

    • Mario cavolo December 29, 2011, 3:39 pm

      The Chinese bypassing, cutting out the originator, source, and doing their own thing direct to maximum advantage?…Ohh big surprise there folks…M

  • mava December 29, 2011, 6:00 am

    I agree on Apple. Btw, Gary North came out with similar prediction regarding the fruits earlier this year (after jobs was gone). And so, I too, concur! Fundamentally speaking the company was built on just one man willpower, and thankfully, that is over. However evil, he still was a genius.

    Without him, I doubt that the shadows can get it done. Besides, Apple is all about useless toys. Where we going, last thing people will think about will be overpriced toys. I do expect, however, his followers to buy next few things fanatically, as they want to resurrect the legend.

    I’d say the next year on the same date, the stock is going to be lower than today. Even if, as RA predicts, it will be no higher, that would mean lower in real terms, as we are going through massive inflation and there is no end in sight. So, stocks that are OK should be higher nominally, even if no upside in real terms.

    I think housing might start tickling up, again, only nominally, but against gold it will continue crashing, as it should.

    Gold, will likely end 2012 above $3500, with massive corrections and political pull-downs few times during the year. That is if there is no collapse during 2012 (watch out for D.O. boasting his sure warnings).

    • Benjamin December 29, 2011, 1:52 pm

      Not to be a you-know-who, but in what year did the gold price ever double or finish more than double?

      Anyway, FWIW… The g/s ratio is in a longer-term ascent which, according to my bones, should encounter resistence at around 1:60, after which it’ll trade in a 15 point range for much of 2012 (and perhaps not coincidentally, the historical ratio is 1:15). What this guess might mean for 2012 is a gold price between $1,125 and $1875, and a silver price between $18.75 and $41.66.

      An even bolder prediction is that, should Ron Paul win the presidency, the system will counter by, among other things, becoming quite unstable to the downside.

    • Rick Ackerman December 29, 2011, 5:58 pm

      iTune’s competition is heating up, most particularly music storage that requires no hardware. Apple has enough other strong revenue streams to keep the stock relatively buoyant. But the wow factor is fading, and even in the unlikely event that the company is able to pull another rabbit out of the hat with a paradigm-changing product, I doubt the economy will be strong enough to make it ubiquitous, especially at Apple’s prices.

    • Tom December 29, 2011, 6:29 pm

      MAVA, here is a link to Alf Fields keynote speech at the Sydney Gold Symposium on Nov 14th -15th 2011.Apparently he is very much in agreement with your prediction for gold as I am. To bad we will probably have to put up with DO crowing about being right 5 out of 5 times today or tomorrow with the thin trading at years end. Also a link concerning the disconnect between paper gold prices and the real price.
      Keynote Speech At Sydney Gold Symposium 14-15 November 2011 By Alf Field
      http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/

      COMEX: The March To Irrelevance
      http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/dec272011.html
      Here’s to good fortune to all in the New Year and peace and good will to all mankind.

    • Buster December 29, 2011, 6:45 pm

      Yes Benjamin. If Ron Paul wins, expect the gangsters to pull the plug on the whole damn money system, followed by the MSM blaming him & his ‘wacky ideas’. He will surely need to strike at the heart of the beast to survive.

    • mava December 29, 2011, 7:40 pm

      Benjamin,

      I totally agree. If there is no collapse, then the behavior of gold should not be too different from few previous years. Over time, though, this will bend the curve upward too. However, I expect the collapse to hasten the ascent of gold, and this is why I am looking at almost double (1900 x 2 = 3800, so 3500 is only an “almost double”).

      Also, watch what they are doing. They have passed 1867 right? Right. Under that act, they will detain without charges, torture and murder anyone who uses cash, after the outlaw cash. That, they will say is a support to Al Qaeda. So, unlike in Italy right now, where the cash transaction will simply earn you a fine or short jail time, here, it will cost you your life. They are almost ready to introduce capital controls.

      I think, that ought to hit them right in their face, with capital escaping by conversion to gold. Why wouldn’t capital be able to escape by way of cash? Because, they will probably set up the law so that dollars will get you arrested anywhere else but in US, and Euro anywhere but in EU, and so on. Compartmentalization.

      Now, you’d ask, why wouldn’t capital escape through an asset, such as say, buy a ferrarri , move abroad, and sell it for local currency. Because, that will be well known to authorities ans taxed to death. All this collection of personal information through facebook (a CIA outlet) and everywhere else, is because their plan is to tax everything you own openly. This is why you real estate isn’t going to be any good to you, first because you’ll pay heavy taxes on it, and second, because later the rents will all be dictated by the state.
      You’d think, that the farm land went sky-high in USSR during the famine, when communist production couldn’t satisfy the demand? Nope, it was free. Because taking known ownership of an asses in front of a murdering dictator simply puts you in line for extermination, not on the road to riches.

      So, this is when, I think, people will finally understand, “why gold”. Albeit, for absolute majority, this will be way too late.

  • Bradley December 29, 2011, 2:16 am

    re: AAPL
    You’re right there with Alan Farley on that one. He’s predicting a pullback in the stock to the low 300’s, and perhaps high 200’s this next year.
    (Alan is a fantastic trader, but I’ll believe it when I see it…)
    PS Speaking of 2012 predictions, I’ll bet Doug Kass did the happy dance when SHLD cratered lower the same day his 2012 list came out, (in which he predicted that Sears will declare bankruptcy in 2012)…he holds puts of course…

    &&&&&&

    Kass’s “call” on Sears turned up in my chat room, and it is the prediction I had in mind when I implied that my fellow gurus, in their energetic year-end quest for publicity/notoriety, try too hard to predict things that other gurus will somehow have overlooked. In point of fact, Sears has been going out of business for 30 years, and the chain is obviously headed for the dumper. Will its funeral be in 2012? Maybe, but I doubt it. There is, after all, a lot of ruin in what was once the world’s largest retail empire.
    RA

    • ricecake December 29, 2011, 6:07 pm

      Has anyone yet predicted that Wal-mart will shut down some stories in the future?