My very best wishes to you on this day of joyous celebration for Christians and Jews. May the festival lights of Chanukah and the Nativity Star shine brightly upon all the world…
Holiday Greetings
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- December 23, 2011, 8:58 pm
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December 23, 2011, 6:36 pm
Here we are at the SPX 200 DMA Red Line, and as just posted on Trade Blog, likely to break through…
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December 25, 2011, 12:21 am
It broke out. Lets see if it is a fast move or not. I suspect it will hit the high end of my target, 1340-1360.
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December 25, 2011, 12:21 am
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December 23, 2011, 5:51 pm
Dedicated to DO:
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December 23, 2011, 5:48 pm
Oh yeah, I recall… He must be in his hole, pondering the irrationality of a stupid market, RUTHLESS MERCENARY, listening to great works of “ludwig von’s” !
ROTFLMAO
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December 23, 2011, 5:43 pm
He really doesn’t know anything. He is just a lazy, fat, lonely kid, who hadn’t got laid yet, so he can’t mingle around with his own peers.
I saw his lack of forecast skills when he promised that gold is going down, and although this wasn’t what I, myself, was forecasting, I listened. I waited. Nothing. A tiny correction to 1600 was all D.O. could deliver. Some crash!
No, hanks, I’ll stick to Rick’s Picks.
D.O. probably goes around all the boards and boasts everywhere, “probing the blockheads” that say he will be wrong, may-be hoping to make his predictions real by having people to act on them…
But yeah, Carol, where is he today, where is his gap? Is Gold still his bitch? Ha-ha…. children… lol.
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December 23, 2011, 5:02 pm
There are no prophets here, of that I’m reasonably certain.
We are left to our reasoning & understanding as best we can, so humility is always valuble. The markets, run by computers programmed to relieve us of our cash at the speed of light can be very humbling, too!
Still, differing opinions are welcome.
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December 23, 2011, 4:48 pm
DO >> “My line-drawn closing price today, of approx. 1255 spx, HELD. Only 1254. Wow. … Tomorrow, little biddies—spx gap down.”
Lol wrong again!! Now Mr. high and mighty maybe you can concede that you really don’t know what you are talking about?
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December 23, 2011, 4:26 am
Alvaro de Orleans-Borbon,
Nice to hear an interesting viewpoint. However, when someone buys gold bullion, holds it for a while and then sells it, say for twice the paper money he used to buy it with, there is zero profit. (I am ignoring transaction costs, taxes, etc, which act to actually turn this into a loss).
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December 23, 2011, 12:58 pm
Good point, mava. Gold isn’t too expensive to buy, save, and sell… to act as money, ie… Governments are just too big!
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December 23, 2011, 12:58 pm
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December 23, 2011, 2:04 am
I am grateful to D.O. for bringing quite reasonable opposite viewpoints in an environment that, in my humble opinion, begins to show some signs of excessive confirmation bias.
For many of us, while reading his posts, it is always good to remember that we never learn much from somebody we are in agreement with…
Are we facing monetary inflation forever? Not necessarily so.
During the last century, in Europe we had politicians capable to launch wars that killed millions.
Comparatively, t0 launch a savage deflation to finally clean our economies is not such a big deal, and might be contagious — other continents may follow — and many of us believe that it would be a really good thing for our economies.
Under such a scenario the price of gold — as well as that of many other assets — would drop significantly and stay low for a long time.
Ultimately, every “goldbug” will have to decide whether he honestly advocates a sound money system — gold backed or not — or would rather prefer a permanent inflationary scenario that allows him to profit from its PM holdings.
You just cannot have both!
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December 23, 2011, 12:53 pm
“For many of us, while reading his posts, it is always good to remember that we never learn much from somebody we are in agreement with…”
Wise advice, but I counter by pointing out that all interesting argument is precisely because people have been willing to intelligently engage DO and other contrarians. The only thing those folks are guilty of is failure to be easily swayed. On the other hand, from his very post to these forums, D.O.’s just been a hooded (no name) venom-spewing machine.
Given that, and while I can’t speak for everyone, basic netiquette says who I should and shouldn’t respect… Not my differing or similar views on market trends.
“Ultimately, every “goldbug” will have to decide whether he honestly advocates a sound money system — gold backed or not — or would rather prefer a permanent inflationary scenario that allows him to profit from its PM holdings. You just cannot have both!”
Hoarding never equals profitability. A finer if seemingly dissimilar example of this is if people simply chose to not produce. What do they gain from removing their productive efforts from the market, other than no income in an environment where higher prices result due to increased scarcity?
I know that most if not all goldbugs here already realize that. But it’s a tenuous argument to insist that the gold price must drop for that reason. I mean, think about it… Why should it, when more and more people want it, but there just isn’t enough to satisfy demand at $300?
Now, lest I give the impression of contradicting an earlier point I made, no… I’m not saying there is not enough gold in the world to around. There’s 150 decillion gold atoms in the entire above-ground supply. Here’s what that number looks like…
150,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
There’s more gold atoms than there inches of the Great Wall of China. Or China, for that matter. So there’s PLENTY of gold to go around at _any_ price greater than zero.
Now, one of DO’s main points is that an ounce of gold is “too expensive”. He then concludes that the gold price must drop, simply because HE isn’t willing or able to pay today’s prices for an _ounce_. But even poor people in India are not driven by that somewhat “OWS” reasoning. Instead, they purchase grams instead of ounces, in one form or another. In time, places like GoldMoney and BullionVault will start to sell allocated ownership of micrograms (and smaller), in order to meet the demands of all buyers, rich and poor alike.
So the extreme over-abundance and divisibility of gold more than suggest that >$2,000/oz are attainable and sustainable. Of course, that means not everyone will be able to own entire ounces, and that they’ll have to save before taking profits. Is that anything, though, to boo-hoo about? Well, yes, actually, in _one_ regard…
But that’s another story. If you’re astute, though, I think you can figure out what the problem is. Here’s a hint, in case you need one to get ya started…
http://0.tqn.com/d/gonyc/1/0/G/I/gold01.jpg
That be the Federal Reserve vault, btw (my, they’ve been quite busy little goldbugs, haven’t they?).
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December 23, 2011, 3:37 pm
Mmm??
There be copper in them there bars of gold…
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December 24, 2011, 7:52 pm
The fact that you think of gold hoarding as of profit making, should help you to see a clue that you’re likely seeing gold not as money itself, but as another commodity that is rising in price.
Gold is not rising in price, nor does it fall in price. It is just money, units of accounting for everything you take from society, and everything you give to society.
It’s like inches or kilograms or pounds. You would not think that by hoarding inches you’d get more of something that is shrinking, come next year? Similarly, by hoarding gold you wouldn’t get more of a dollar value, just more dollars that would “fit” in the same gold ounce, but their value will remain the same, because you are making sure of that, by measuring their value against something that is not shrinking nor growing – gold!
On your deflation argument:
Almost no one gives himself a task of first figuring out what is it he is going to call deflation, before starting heated arguments. Take D.O. for example. He has no idea what is deflation. What he does is he uses the term here and there as he feels. As a result, he contradicts himself (he does not realize that, walking way up there on top of the cages).
He would call falling prices in some market a deflation (seemingly adopting the definition of keynes), and then he would turn around and argue that there is going to be a deflationary market crash due to bankers unable to create enough money (seemingly adopting the austrian definition).
So, make sure you know what is it you think you’re going to call deflation. Now, I know that you have said “monetary”. Yet, like keynes, you tell us that after the authorities launch “savage deflation” (I presume it is monetary savage deflation), then the price of gold would fall, and stay low for long time, meaning price, or keynes deflation. One does not follow from another. The latter might be a consequence of the first but it doesn’t have to.
Second, why would authorities launch a savage deflation? Have you asked yourself why do they attempt to inflate for decades? What is it there for them? Why don’t they do as Keynes promised (yeah, I’d believe keynes if even Hitler didn’t believe him), which is to inflate and then deflate, and again, ad infinitum? Why do we only have inflation? Is there a reason for that? Are the authorities interested in inflation more than in deflation? Why did keynes invented his stupid theory? Who’s interests he sought to satisfy by providing a seemingly scientific rationalization of necessity of inflation? Why did he think that someone like Hitler would be very interested? (He made big mistake there, as Hilter was sincerely believing he is “helping” Germany, while the whole point of keynes scam is to pretend you helping while sincerely trying rob the people).
Once you answer these to yourself, you would realize that for authorities to launch a savage deflation if as for a robin hood to spend next 100 years robbing the poor and stuffing the coffins of the rich!
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December 23, 2011, 12:53 pm
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December 22, 2011, 11:27 pm
You totering ol folk are more fun than squashing a pile of ants.
My line-drawn closing price today, of approx. 1255 spx, HELD. Only 1254. Wow. I was so reeeeaally worried, that I went to do other things, like cooking a great dish, while listening to sections of ludwig van’s better work.
Tomorrow, little biddies—spx gap down.
Jus the start, littles biddies, jus the start.
and gold is the spx’s bitch. She’ll follow.-
December 23, 2011, 12:55 am
“You totering ol folk are more fun than squashing a pile of ants.”
Okay, I normally don’t feed forum trolls, but if I don’t say this, then you’ll all miss out on the big laugh I had when I noticed the resemblence between D.O. and…
http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0154326/quotes
Sorry for the divergent topic. Happy Holidays, all (even you, D.O. Commander)!
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December 23, 2011, 4:16 am
Yep. Looks like a troll. I was hoping that he had a point.
Funny how some kids just can’t find something to do, they just have to nag in someone’s face. And by the way, I noticed the movie-script speech too! Seem like a kid who watched one too many bad movies, and now imagines himself to be one of his favorite fictional heroes.Speaking of which, that’s the beauty of insanity, that one can easily “become” either Teddy Roosevelt, or.. Teddy Roosevelt’s horse, if that’s what he always wanted to be. There is freedom in that.
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December 23, 2011, 4:21 am
Also, notice this: “…listening to sections of ludwig van’s better work…”. This is the same as if I’d refer to “Helen of Troy” not simply as “Helen” or as “The Lady of Troy”, but as “Helen of “. This is the same approach as in calling a Mustang “Tang”. Children have no idea of how to do it right, but they want to sound cool so that’s what they do to appear cool.
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December 23, 2011, 4:29 am
Futures are kicking your ass from my Shanghai perch this morning DO….this is going to be an interesting day watching the charts…Mario
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December 23, 2011, 5:31 pm
Damn-
Yesterday I leveraged my entire portfolio against today’s gap down open in the SPX, and look where it got me….
I guess when he said tommorrow he really meant next tomorrow next week (or the maybe the tomorrow after that)
Guess I’ll be looking for a refrigerator box to sleep in tonight.
Merry Christmas to my awesome investment advisor, Divergent Opinion….
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December 23, 2011, 12:55 am
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December 22, 2011, 10:33 pm
Oh, and by the way, I’ve read your attempt to ridicule others. I find you to be intellectually similar to Obama, – likely very low on self-conscience scale. You know where it seem to you that you know it all, and there is all the anger at the people not on your level of understanding. This usually is a sign that you actually know next to nothing, and that the disparity in levels is due to you, not them, hitting pretty low.
If I were you, I’d take a careful look at myself, and make sure I am not senile, while you still have that much of self-control (if you still do, of course).
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December 22, 2011, 10:27 pm
Still waiting for gold to crash, DO. I mean it. I am ready to seriously load up once again, but I would like to do it at a lower dollar prices if I could. Say $1000 would make me very happy, and I’ll back up the truck. Even at $1200, I will load up some, and just hope to average down from there on.
The only problem is your prediction isn’t materializing yet. There is more time left to new year. I wait.
I want it to go way down, sitting here ready, locked and loaded.
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December 22, 2011, 9:57 pm
DO{pe} bashing goldbugs and never shows up when it’s rising? LMAO
Guess mr oversized ego wasn’t quite smart enough to load up in late 1999 or all the other times it was on sale. To my friends that come out with the old canard “Gold is not an investment”, I merely grin and reply “Yes, it just sits there and has gone up nicely for the last 10 years in most currencies”.
Between seasonality, company specific situations and the occasional panic, PM stocks have been fun to trade for years now. Volatility making options premiums higher? Just FINE with me.
Best of luck to “da bugs”! Be right and sit tight as JL said ;>)
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December 22, 2011, 8:51 pm
You all miss MY points, including RA, whenever I show up here, usually about a month apart.
RA, I KNOW you are a ruthless mercenary, just like myself, and you PIVOT away from your bad up/down calls, as fast as a striking rattlesnake, and that’s why you still exist, and sell subscriptions, and that’s why I bother to come here—ocassionally.
Believe it or not, or rare occassion, I actually find something of worth, from the commentators on your site. But the majority of times, they are such rigid BLOCKHEADS, that actually, solely out of boredom, I prod their shallowmind CAGES, just to see how the ancient vermin attempt to strike back, at anyone that does not swallow, their IDIOTIC closedminded beliefs.
And as I already stated before, the biggest CONCRETEheads deathbreathing herein, are in order, 1. il roberto, 2. mavasita, 3. leprechaunfitzgerald.
Does not matter. I made my exact call, it is stated above, and that is it. Today will tell the tale. No point going over it further.
Caveat Emptor.
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December 22, 2011, 11:09 pm
“You all miss MY points, including RA, whenever I show up here, usually about a month apart.”
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, as Granny used to say.
In spite of your intellectualoid smugness, you convinced me of one thing today – I exited my precious metals positions. Now, if between today and a month from today when you return in all your overweening priggishness, I find that PMs have not crashed but have instead gone UP, my withered hand will reach through your monitor and tip your bottle of LAPHROAIG or DON EDUARDO all over your LAP.
Skal.
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December 22, 2011, 11:49 pm
Sweet…. I’m number ONE.
Take THAT, all you inferior grade concreteheads.
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December 22, 2011, 11:09 pm
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December 22, 2011, 7:44 pm
Just some questions for D.O. …
Why pick on the gold (price) bugs, when there’s plenty of people in the world that still think the metals will never again be money because “there isn’t enough of it” (or other nonsensical objections)? And far be it from me to tell you how to get your kicks but… Don’t you think your time would be better spent if you stuck to the finer points about hard money, rather than mock and insult price-bugs at (in your view) opportune times?
Now, I’ve not been at this for terribly long. And for the record, the prices stopped meaning anything to me when I started ratio-trading. But at the very least, the rise of the gold and silver prices has prompted more average-joes to look into the reason behind it and how deep the rabbit-hole goes. In fact, it’s one of the reasons why Ron Paul is gaining so much support and receiving so much venom these days (see above). So the way I see it, and despite any erroneous views, the price-bugs are not worthy of being mocked. If they hadn’t been singing their song all this time, I think many more people would still be in the dark.
Just sayin’…
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December 22, 2011, 6:44 pm
Here ya go D.O…..
http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/
The Treasury and Equity/Commodity markets are all closing in on the point that one of them must give way to the other.
We’ll see which way it goes within the next 60 days, methinks…
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December 22, 2011, 6:39 pm
DO
You should change your name to Divergent Fact, rather than opinion, since you are so CERTAIN. Facts are certain, not opinion.
Guiness Records Alert: you would be the first person in history to be constantly correct on prognosticating the future. It is an honor just to address you.We all shall see.
The one trend that is moving higher and higher, with little or no correction is the debt load of the US, the world, and its inability to repay this.
The other trend is the increasing lack of law. If MF Global doesn’t scare you, you are very uninformed or feeling as bulletproof as a teenager. What happens when folks move from margin to cash because they observe that the fact is their government will not enforce laws protecting their property? Or maybe they leave the markets entirely? It is already argued that the bond market and the stock market cannot rally together because of lack of liquidity and choices must be made…check for yourself.
This process has occurred over the last few years.
This is classic deflationary stuff…when money dies.
How high gold, or any other asset which can’t be easily counterfeited (excepting GLD and its infinite derivatives), is simply a function of how hard the money controllers fight the inevitable deflation backside of excessive debt creation.
I have no idea where it will go, but seeing that we have a system of entitlements that must keep stock prices levitated (was not that way in the depression), I am guessing that the money controllers will keep the junkie hooked up with supply forever, until the junkie OD’s (currency failure because confidence in repayment of treasuries fails).Have you looked at a 30 year chart of the dow/gold ratio? These are trends which can be seen from across any office. This is no blip. A year countertrend means nothing.
And all the while, ambitious folks will create new companies, and others will create failures…
still waiting for Intel to breakout. Tease. -
December 22, 2011, 6:24 pm
DO 2012 is not that far off so we will see. It appears that I upset you with my post, not apologizing, as you still are rude and crude and blind.
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December 22, 2011, 5:07 pm
I saw yesterday as very constructive. After a big surge we got a small consolidation. I don’t see any resistance till we hit 1340 on the SPX.
The recent news keeps reinforcing a better domestic economy. The EU situation, for the time being, has averted immediate crisis.
In fact everything is pointing to a big rally. Whether this year or the beginning of next year it seems likely we move 10 percent higher. The A/D ratio is also showing positive divergence.
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December 22, 2011, 6:11 pm
I only come here when gold is about to fall, since I enjoy deeply annoying the decrepit blockhead goldbugs that reside herein, droning on their worthless gold microtrivia existence.
And I have been correct 4 out of 4 prior times I have come here to predict, over last 6 months, the future direction of gold price, oftentime against what you leader RA has confidently stated on his daily article.
And this is my fifth time, and I assure you, this will be the biggest of all. As gold price is already in a CONFIRMED BEAR market. And believe me, that does NOT bode well for the spx stockmarket, as gold and the spx are MARRIED, even though few believe me that they are.
leibowitz, you write succintly your position above, so I will tell you mine. Be very careful with your current views, or at least hedge them.
But then again, I have drawn a line in the sand, of a closing price of approx. 1255spx, for the PROFOUND bear case, the MULTIyear bear case, and right now—-
the spx market is bucking right up, against that prediction. So you will soon know, at end of today, if I am right, or wrong. FYI, I am CERTAIN I am right.&&&&&&
Compared to some gold zealots out there, D.O., I’m pretty conservative, since it’s impossible to know how many Krugerrands one will need to exchange for a loaf of bread if things get REALLY tough.
With respect to my short- and intermediate-term forecasts, you should ask my subscribers how I’ve been doing before you infer any more about what I have been “stating confidently.” For the record, since mid-November I’ve been using 1459.40 (or 1424.80 if any lower), basis Comex February, as a minimum downside target. I would buy at either number aggressively, and at 1445.70 as well, but in no instance would I risk more than pocket change on the initial stop-loss.
Let’s you and I compare forecasts in a month. RA
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December 22, 2011, 6:26 pm
Maybe Divergent Opinion is a Member of the FOMC….
🙂
Gold is insurance- selling it on near term technicals would be like cancelling your life insurance policy because your doctor said you had low chloresterol and were in good health…
It’s only seems like good idea until you get creamed by an 18-wheeler on the drive home from the Dr’s office….
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December 23, 2011, 5:13 pm
SPX of 1259 is bumping on the 200 day moving average. If it pulls out from here it should rise fast.
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December 22, 2011, 6:11 pm
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December 22, 2011, 4:29 pm
The spx is now making a major closing top (in 1250 area) within next few days, and along with silver and gold—top that will hold, for years to come.
Therefore, it would not surprise me at all, to see an approx. 10% crash, before the new year. Additionally, I strongly expect 2012 to look chartwise, much worse than 2008.
The spx has several major trendlines of resistance, just above the current 1240’s spx, and that wall of resistance is currently at approx. spx 1255 closingprice– so there is very little headway here, before a major, longterm turnaround downward—and there is a great deal of technical evidence to support this, as a high probability call.
Same goes for gold and silver, both reaching major tops (gold $1665, silver $32), to last for years to come, riding pretty much in synch with the spx, as all 3 are solely a product of liquidity and easy credit; or in the current world case, ever increasing LACK thereof.
Gold has powerful resistances at the $1665 area, plus at the 200day ma (currently around $1645). Btw, this 200day ma was broken about 10 days ago (as I predicted that it would do, apprx. 3 weeks ago, herein). And needless to say, this gold price break of its 200ma is very bearish, because the last time it did it was midyear 2008—and it stayed under it, for 1/2 year.
And I predict now, that this time around, gold price will stay under its 200day ma, for MUCH longer than half a year.
And silver, is in a much worse mess than the spx and gold. Silver is way under its 200day ma, plus there is huge resistance at $32.
So silver should hit the low 20’s very quickly, once spx and gold breakdown, fully, together—and starting sometime next week, most probably.
As to the article above, re the proper valuation status of ‘1st world’ real estate (Europe and usa), I consider that the current spike up this week (due to some short term up blip due to new building starts for rentals units), I consider it as a ‘gift’ entrypoint for shorters of large homebuilders corporations–since there is no ‘recovery’ whatsoever in the cards for ‘1st world’ real estate—all there is still now is a mess of manipulated housing and employment data, in which every tiny monthly upticking of any of their indicators, is received with large headlines and broker cries of exultation, at the HUGE beartrap short-covering rallies soon to follow.
Well, one day the piper must finally be paid, and strongly opine that it is now—or, better said, piper NOT paid, since everybody in the world (99%) is practically broke (whether they know it yet or not), because if you have your money inside one of the hundreds of world banks that will go bankrupt in 2012, you will go penniless with them too, since FDIC has zero chance of coping with a cascade of bankrupting large world banks.
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December 22, 2011, 6:05 pm
I find of what you post to utter be BS, but I can wait until next year when gold is >$2000 and silver > $50 and you are no where to be found. Also as I purchased most of my gold and silver in 2000 when gold was $300 and silver $3 if by some freakish course you are right on anything I really won’t care as I will still be ahead. But once again I predict that gold ,silver, farmland,oil and gas leases,and no debt will rule the day for the next several years.
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December 22, 2011, 6:13 pm
JJ Said: “If BAC goes under, who will they merge it with? We are running out of big banks after all the mergers of the past decade”
D.O. said: “if you have your money inside one of the hundreds of world banks that will go bankrupt in 2012, you will go penniless with them too, since FDIC has zero chance of coping with a cascade of bankrupting large world banks.”
Agree with both of you.
Absolutely true, the current existing “backstops” to the banking system are inadequate to address the cascading failures that would occur.
What people have to keep in mind is that there are more risks out there than a simple, good old fashioned bank run on deposits. This is only ONE way that the banks could fail.
The derivatives exposure these banks have on their books is the other “unspoken truth” that the banks want to keep hidden in the cellar.
Regarding BAC- forget it. That bank is done, and it is big enough to bankrupt the FDIC, and it has enough derivative market exposure to collapse not only a host of other big global banks, but also also many large global insurance companies and hedge funds.
Europe, versus BAC- who goes first? THAT is the only question that should be on your mind right now.
If Europe goes, then the US can only serve as a liquidity providing “good neighbor” to global markets.
If BAC goes, then the only plausible next move is a US banking holiday, followed by a “Grand re-opening” of your “newly” formed and chartered US National Banking System, where all banks will act as either:
1) Regulated, but self capitalizing community deposit institutions, or
2) Teller window/ATM facades for the Federal Reserve’s printing press.
Oh, and DO: I like your new (and tamed down) posting style. I agree that if you look exclusively at technicals that the metals and the equity indexes could be interpreted as being at intermediate to long term tops, but I respectfully submit that you are too endeared to the premise that the Fed will not create more dollars (or even fancy new devalued dollars)…
Creating dollars is ALL THE FED DOES.
Bernanke might be the guy that presses the button, but if things get bad enough, then people will simply pressure the politicos to have him yanked, and they will give Yellen the “Press the button or you’re done too” speach.
Remember, if they stop creating dollars, then they have no way to preserve their precious ZIRP in perpetuity.
The US control freaks in the Administration and Congress can continue to scare the world into our Treasury market for another 3-5 years maybe, but let’s face it: US Treasuries are at the end of a decades long secular bull market. They are in the final mania phase where everyone thinks that they are the only safe place for their investment, because they will always pay their principle back, and they might even gain some speculative equity value along the way. The Dow 36000 mentality of 2001 jumps to mind.
Remember when the equity market had reached that magical “perpetual motion machine” point where no one could describe a realistic scenario where the stock market could collapse?
There are no sellers in the Bond market except the US Treasury – that should inspire fear and worry, not excitement and jubilation, for the future of the cash market.
Bill Gross will be vindicated by history as being correct, maybe just a little too early…
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December 22, 2011, 6:17 pm
Farmer tom, this is the kind of direct repost I like.
Yet I do not consider your post to be b.s., but just simply plain stupid.
As such, I have nothing further to tell you, you are a donkey in the field, eating grass.
So enjoy your future, mundane duncecap.
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December 22, 2011, 6:28 pm
robert, you buy 100% the central banker illusion.
illusion they can catch up to, and maintain the debt.WRONG.
the 1 quadrillion debt, since end of 2007, already overwhelms WHATEVER can the world c.b.’s can do.
All they can do is palaver, and massage shortterm, the debt repayment due is now OUT OF CONTROL, and it is EVERYWHERE, central bankers can only stretch and stretch, as many DAYS as possible, to let their cronies out, before it ALL collapses.
Redwood trees don’t grow forever. They reach a peak, live out their existence, commence to die, then fall. What you are experiencing now is the slow death of a redwood. It will soon fall. And I say the first cracks, start next week. We shall soon know, if I am correct or not, I have drawn a very tight stop to my 1255spx closingprice prediction.
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December 22, 2011, 6:34 pm
You all sometimes misunderstand my position on gold. I consider it real money, just as you all do.
However, I consider gold EXTREMELY overpriced, based on current world’s massively UNavoidable DEFLATIONARY situation. I consider that current gold price at $1600’s, could easily be cut in HALF, to the strong multi-decade $850 support level, and STILL I would not buy it there.
I want it back where farmer tom bought it for, $300. There, I’ll buy some ounces. And by depressionary 2016, it’s a slamdunk buy.
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December 22, 2011, 7:08 pm
DO:
“robert, you buy 100% the central banker illusion.
illusion they can catch up to, and maintain the debt.WRONG.
the 1 quadrillion debt, since end of 2007, already overwhelms WHATEVER can the world c.b.’s can do.”
I do not buy ANY banker’s illusion. But you assume that it would/could ONLY be Central Banks that can create the required volumes of currency…
WRONG.
The US Treasury could begin issuing 100% debt free Treasury Notes tomorrow that effectively “pay” the notional (and national) interest on every existant Federal Reserve note currently in circulation; and the Treasury would balance this issuance against the notional value of the global supply of US Treasury Bonds in the open market….
The 15 Trillion in National debt could be wiped out tomorow, and the Treasury would still maintain adequate balance sheet liquidity to issue currency against all outstanding unfunded liabilities.
You don’t think the debt can not be paid… I’m saying yes it can; just not in currency that maintains its current purchasing power.
Your viewpoints require there to be a fixed and rigid set of “rules” that the game is being played by; while my viewpoints maintain the understanding that all human rules are illusory, and they always yield to the game that is actually being played on the field.
The US will not default in order to allow the degree of real deflation necessary to increase the purchasing power of the Federal Reserve Note adequately enough to force the restructuring of the global debt load…. Not. Gonna. Happen.
The shadow bankers THINK that they can bankrupt the world and install their puppet government of “intellectual elites”, but they can’t. You can not concentrate and maintain people’s loyalty or allegiance on that grand a scale. Hitler, Stalin, Obama… NOBODY is so awesome that they can influence the mindset of the entire population of Earth…. Not even Satan.
The downside to the nuclear Treasury Note option (of course) is that the obsolescence of the Federal Reserve banking system would become self evident, and in full public view; So things will probably have to get just a LITTLE BIT worse before .gov plays this particular card.
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December 22, 2011, 6:05 pm
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December 22, 2011, 4:04 pm
Real estate is not coming back anytime soon because the job market is and will continue to be a disaster. Jobs and real estate go hand in hand…
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December 23, 2011, 5:29 am
One missing variable between home ownership and rental is maintenance, repairs and rising property taxes and fees…
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December 24, 2011, 1:33 pm
It’s always simply by the numbers and if ur in a market where renting is obviously a better choice on paper or vice versa then that’s it…this pride of ownership part gets too much weight… If renting is a better deal than buying then there are plenty of other assets and investments one can be proud to own with the extra cash…
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December 23, 2011, 5:29 am
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December 22, 2011, 3:15 pm
I joined the ranks of home buyers on Friday, closing on my house on Friday. Purchase price was $1000 less than the appraised value. Although I expect that to fall over time I don’t care, as the cost of renting same would be about $350 a month more than the combined mortgage, taxes, insurance and PMI.
What’s even better is my bookshop will be across the street. A 25 year dream come true. 150 ft commute.
Hoping for a good year and more to follw…
Andy
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December 22, 2011, 6:24 pm
Andy,
My very best wishes to you, I hope it works out well. 150 ft commute?! Mine’s 75 miles!DavidC
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December 22, 2011, 6:26 pm
Nice avocado, enjoy the new home…Mario
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December 22, 2011, 8:02 pm
Congratulations on saving so much petrochemical. Can you poke fun of an avocado for being green? I had the 150 ft dream commute for 6 years and found it a bit too short….so moved a walkable 9ths of a “mile” away. That distance, while perhaps still too short…provides some respite from a business that never completely rests. Textbooks are specifically seasonal while I suspect your books are more general….nevertheless, hope your Christmas is Merry and you have as much fun as I do / did / have. 🙂
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December 24, 2011, 1:44 pm
I don’t drive, and now that I have spinal stenosis walking long distances is more than a little difficult. I’ll still do the walking as the supermarket is about a quarter mile down the street, so when we need something I will walk down to get it, just to get “some” exercise. Hopefully I can rebuild my strength over time. Where I am presently I just sit, either at home or the shop. So I’m looking forward to the move.
I’m a general used and rare operation with a focus on hardcore nonfiction and genealogy. I also do software for booksellers. I sell online, (especially Amazon) at the shop and we have booths at an antique mall in the valley. So I’m well diversified.
Nice thing about bookselling is its depression proof. Since most of my buyers are mid to upper income already an imploding economy does not effect them as much. Plus, I sell worldwide, and a lot of the rest of the world is not teetering on the brink. Especially China, which I expect will become a growing market for English language books, just like Japan did so many years ago. I sell quite a few books that get shipped to Japan.
Andy
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December 22, 2011, 6:24 pm
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December 22, 2011, 9:21 am
Evening Guys…shifting the real estate topic a bit East with further points on the undue and rhetorically inaccurate negatives on re the China outlook particularly real estate. At your risk forget that most China slowing is because Beijing has MADE it slow down by a mix of economic policy decisions directly linked into the economy in ways which don’t exist in the west. Many of those variables can, will be methodically reversed as needed on demand. Powerful levers at the fingertips of the Beijing gods…Ignore all MSM comments which include the words China real estate with any other words such as big problem or freefall… silly stuff at best, these are only the problems of isolated overly leveraged real estate developers, barely the tip of the iceberg, not the iceberg itself below the surface which is the mainstream property market, which on average is down less than 5%, oh gee ouch, after doubling on average. Nothing to report here folks, besides a few trillion in equity sitting around. Also reason to consider why Chinese have not gone particularly gonzo over buying gold and silver despite free access to do so. Ditto for internal consumption, Chinese / HK equity levels, etc….levels looking very attractive to jump on board…Check Forbe’s latest article online.
Happy Holidays and Blessings to all… Mario
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December 23, 2011, 5:26 am
Back to you Mario Brother.
CYC targeting -15%.
(My experience is government corrections usually go on longer than expected.)…
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December 23, 2011, 5:26 am
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December 22, 2011, 8:32 am
DRN was one of our Christmas Poppers, targeting +33%.
(With unleveraged DJR REIT’s targeting +38%, go figure.)
Agree Rick, with the notion Rentals are driving what’s left of the RE market. Maybe that’s where DK got the expression “rental.”
JJ you are exceptionally full of serious cheer tonight.
And the 14,000 radiation cancer deaths from Fukushima and Gulf Spill according to one expert who left the herd on the reservation.
Question is, with the market sideways in nominal terms and down in real terms, for the last 12 years, while earnings and dividends increased, is all the bad news priced in?
The pessimism is so thick, will not be surprised to see another rip your face rally off on light volume in the next week…
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December 22, 2011, 12:38 pm
My pessimism is rooted in the sad fact that the world is being run by an increasingly brutal series of lunatics. Each new lunatic makes the previous lunatic in charge seem benevolent by comparison. Obama makes Bill Clinton look like Andy Taylor of Mayberry. I am sure the people of Egypt now miss Mubarak. Now they have even more repression and their tourism business is gone. The same goes for Iraq and Libya, they were better off before we installed “Democracy”. Over here, the members of the Senate and the House have changed from smiling liars to surly overlords. It is all about COG to enable COO. Continuity of Government to enable Continuity of the Oligarchy.
Ron Paul is the only glimmer of hope I see for us.
If he does not win at least he can serve as John the Baptist to clear the way for our political Messiah.
I hope so. -
December 23, 2011, 5:17 am
Excellent observations JJ.
See our Silver Senator blogspot…
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December 22, 2011, 12:38 pm
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December 22, 2011, 8:32 am
I think housing will go up again, when the inflation already created will get into the people’s hands and makes it’s way into higher prices. Dollar falling to a half of it’s value, means real estate doubling up in price (nominally).
In real terms, I believe housing will keep getting cheaper, however. So, if you’d sell your house today for gold, two years later you’d be able to buy it back with hopefully a third of that gold.
Barak just is not getting it. He’ll have a big surprise down the road when he finally asks an advice of a real economist, not a keynesian. He doesn’t, for instance, understand the meaning of interest rate, and he keeps destroying the capital. I know, he is a communist, but even to be a communist properly, one must understand capital.
Interestingly, he describes himself as (may-be) fourth-greatest president in American history. This too, shows us that he has very minimum of self-awareness and is likely to be the fourth-worst.
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December 22, 2011, 5:28 pm
Yeah, but don’t forget…faced with a worldwide financial and currency crisis, he has all that experience as a “community organizer” to fall back on.
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December 22, 2011, 6:23 pm
“Dollar falling to a half of it’s value”.
Currencies are a game of relativity. The dollar does not go up or down in a vacuum, but relative to the Euro, Yen, Sterling etc. And all the major currencies are in a race to the bottom.
DavidC
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December 22, 2011, 10:35 pm
That’s what I was saying, DavidC.
“Half of it’s value”, not half of it’s price in Euros or Pounds.
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December 22, 2011, 5:28 pm
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December 22, 2011, 5:35 am
I think TPTB can hold our economy together long enough for the election to happen. Europe is a mess and is sending safe haven money our way. Japan still has Fukushima on their plate, as well as an aging population that will probably be cashing in some of their decades worth of savings to live on. After the election, DC may let it all go down, starting with the Social Security/Medicare payments. With about half of the US paying no income tax, it is easy to see why Obama is pushing for the fiscal insanity of the payroll tax cut. SS is already in deficit mode, cutting the taxes that keep it going may mean they don’t plan to keep paying it much longer. It will also be interesting to see if we attack Iran. With a defense budget about 1% of the USA MIC spending, Iran is sure being built up to be the Wehrmacht straining at the leash in 1939. I also want to see what happens with MF Global/JPM/Corzine. Perhaps Obama can mention at a press conference that, once again, “no laws were broken”. If BAC goes under, who will they merge it with? We are running out of big banks after all the mergers of the past decade. 2012 should be quite a show.
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