DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:74.66)

NYBOT Dollar Index (DXY) price chart with targetsLast week’s rally was impulsive on the hourly chart, albeit with some hesitancy, but we should set a higher standard for turning bullish ourselves, since the dollar has done nothing to earn our — or anyone else’s — trust.  Dollar bulls are obviously about to get some mileage from the cyclical bashing of Europe that has begun anew, like the swallows’ predictable return to Capistrano. But because there’s always the chance that Spain’s financial house of cards is going to come tumbling down one of these times, we should be alert to the dollar short-squeeze that this would catalyze.  In any event, use the two ‘external’ peaks shown on the chart to judge the rally’s strength.  If a bull market is a-borning here, then we should see an upthrust surpass both of those peaks without an intervening b-c correction.