Idaho Gold Miner a Speculative Buy

End-of-summer travel delayed this report on Premium Exploration (TSX symbol: PEM) by a week, although we did issue an informal “buy” recommendation on the junior miner in the Rick’s Picks chat room a couple of weeks ago.  The Canadian-listed stock was trading for around 45 cents a share at the time but has since moved up as high as 57 cents, where it closed yesterday. Based on technical analysis, we’re projecting upside potential over the near term to 64 cents, or perhaps 67 cents if any higher. These projections have a horizon of about 2-3 weeks, but there are longer-term forces at work that augur still higher prices.

Stock charts aside, we rate Premium’s shares a high-potential speculative bet for the long-term. The company is well managed under CEO Del Steiner, and its Idaho site has yielded some very

Gold Projects-Claim Boundaries Orogrande Shear Zone Idaho, USA

impressive core samples so far: 5.75 grams per metric tonne (g/t) over 76 meters, 3.65 g/t over 74 meters, and more than 9 g/t over 25 meters.  Moreover, the larger structure from which these samples were taken is mostly unexplored. The Central Idaho gold region has already produced more than four million ounces of gold from mostly placer projects, but Premium’s site could conceivably double that figure over time. One reason investors are especially excited about the Orogrande fault zone is that it is geologically similar to Nevada’s Carlin Trend, which has produced more gold than any other mining district in the U.S.

Spreading the Word

We toured Premium’s central Idaho site on August 25 as guests of the company in an entourage that included such seasoned veterans of the precious metals world as radio host Al Korelin, Roger Wiegand, Sean Brodrick, Marshall Berol and Dan Pisenti.  All came away sufficiently impressed by Premium’s operations, most particularly at Friday-Petsite, to have bought shares in the company immediately after the tour or to have taken back favorable reports to their respective investment firms. For the record, your editor holds no shares in the firm at present but plans to take a stake after this report has aired publically.

Premium’s financial position looks solid, buttressed as it is by a $10 million round of financing completed in July. This will allow the firm to undertake another 30,000 feet of drilling over the next two years. A 50 million-share float and warrants at 35 cents have damped down price volatility on news, but shares appear to be well covered by inferred resources including 549,000 ounces at Friday-Petsite.

For additional details, as well as a fascinating interview with CEO Steiner, I recommend checking out Sean Brodrick’s in-depth report on the trip at “UncommonWisdomDaily.”  You  can also find extensive site maps and detailed drilling results at Premium’s web site.  As always, let the buyer beware. Due diligence is advised if you’re thinking about acquiring PEM shares.

(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box.)

  • Chris T. September 15, 2010, 3:26 am

    Ben,

    you have some legitimate questions about mining shares, and I would have no answer, only more questions.
    But, I do think that you are asking the 2nd/3rd base questions, those pertaining to when you already have shares.

    Personally, I can see plenty of reasons to by the miners, one only has to look at their charts medium/long term.
    BUT, which ones?
    How are people like us supposed to select between any of these shares?
    Other than the HUI-shares and maybe XAU, how can we peons with day-jobs ever get the information to decide?
    Rick is surely right about doing the do diligence, but that is an impossible task for us. At most we might get all the available company declarations, and srutinise. But as to any of that paper’s veracity, how could we ever know?
    There is almost no point in even starting that D.D.

    Not being one who can intra-day trade/day-to-day trade for simple lack of time, I have not considered signing up for Ricks H-P newletter.
    If that information could be used for people like me,
    and without derivatives, perhaps, but that does not seem the case unfortunately.

    And even the H-P method would say nothing about these juniors, or rather, it only addresses price movements that reflect what those more informed than us believe about that company.
    Surely good for H-P based day-trading, but that a price/price pattern determined by those well informed can turn out to be based only on generelly believed misinformation was proven by Madoff.

    So the only thing left is to find out about these stocks from direct comments by others, such as Rick here, and then to either take that or leave it.
    From what I have read here for some time, I would not feel greatly uncomfortable about a “recommendation” of this kind, speculative as it is in general, but as to doing anything more than that, impossible.

    That’s why I have never put my cents in the ring for the shares, much as I would have liked.

    Now if only there were a way to buy the HUI… (yes I do know about the miner’s ETF).

    • Benjamin September 15, 2010, 10:08 am

      Chris,

      Know exactly what you mean by all that. If I had to add one thing to the DYODD, I would say the first thing one should do is ask “how much am I prepared to lose?”, and act accodingly. Or not.

      Anyway, the one thing I would like to know is what they DO with all that gold/silver. Do they sell it? Vault it? Some of each? How would that affect value?

      And so forth. Every single company I’ve studied, that answer just isn’t there. There’s the g/t, PE, $ value of what they have assessed (or guessed)… No answer as to where it goes, though.

  • Bay of Pigs (Mitch) September 15, 2010, 2:12 am

    How are all the Prechterites doing around here? Gold at new all time highs today and silver close to breaking out of a three year accumulation peroiod (COMEX suppression notwithstanding). How’s the Point & Figure chart working out on all of that nonsense? Not so good…

    This Golden Bull market is going a lot higher.

  • jj September 14, 2010, 8:28 pm

    All Americans should own physical Gold as it is “your” currency that is going to be devalued much further as the US$ Index has devalued from 120 to 70 and currently just above 80 this trend will continue just as it has these past 8 years, Gold is the best hedge against loss in faith in your currency.

    Think any wealthy Greeks this summer would have rather been holding Gold instead of paper Euro$’s ???

    ETF’s have changed the investment world as all the Billions tossed into Gold etf’s in the past have been invested in individual gold miners these pure bullion etf’s have removed much of the risk all miners deal with, but imo the real risk is that bullion etf… does it really hold all those oz……….thats a whole other debate

    Oh L@@K Gold is making yet another all time high today, I’ll search for my evening chuckle as all the same morons that have called golds top since I first bought gold bullion at $345 ….alllll the way up will be out calling the bubble top again……how can anything be in a bubble when 90% don’t own anything Gold, hello!!

    Got Gold?

    • mikeck September 15, 2010, 10:11 pm

      Yeah, those of us who bought the dip below $1200 seem to have fared better than the sellers. I came across an invoice for some tenth eagles that I bought a long time ago…I did not check the date, but the price was $30 per each. How sweet it is.

  • FranSix September 14, 2010, 8:23 pm

    Just a quick note on ‘bringing out the guns’ due to currency collapse, when currencies appreciate wildly in the pacific rim, this is usually a prelude to a military coup.

    Now, looking at my favourite chart, the ¥/$, 9/11 occurred when the dollar seemed to have appreciated substantially:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY:$USD&p=M&st=1980-01-01&en=(today)&id=p26579836264&a=181133547&listNum=2

    The buck was simply on its ‘B’ wave. Food for thought.

  • mikeck September 14, 2010, 5:26 pm

    ALL stocks can become worthless…I’ve had mining stocks and other stocks that did so. I’ve had mining stocks that gained tens of thousand percent…not so with other stocks.

    I would say the first move by anyone towards precious metals should be towards the actual product in hand. When you have enough of the real thing that you sleep mostly without worrying about what the criminal government is doing to our economy, you might want to check out some shares.

    Just my two per 1982 cents worth,
    Mike

    • Benjamin September 15, 2010, 10:13 am

      Yep, get the real thing first. And if you’re up for it, play that ratio to turn it into more!

      “When you have enough of the real thing that you sleep mostly without worrying about what the criminal government is doing to our economy…”

      I worry about it anyway. Will my vaulted gold be protected by bailment law? If I remove it and hide it instead… what if government seizes the property it’s buried on? Will they start to tax it?

      But hey, whatever happens, you won’t be without should the future require it.

  • FranSix September 14, 2010, 12:17 pm

    One of the oldest mines still operating in the U.S. is the Original Sixteen To One gold mine:

    http://www.origsix.com/index.asp

    Another historical mine, this time in Ontario, CDN being revived is the Pickle Crow mine, discussed in exploration-processing.com:

    http://tinyurl.com/2b7b6pg

    For a long term outlook in bullion prices, the following analysis(accompanying video in German) has gold @ €3000 and the Dax at 1500.

    http://www.realterm.de/DAXinGold.php

    Bullion is by far the less risky bet, although likely to see turbulent times. Miners are likely to run into obstacles the least of which is their value as equity when adjusted for inflation.

  • Benjamin September 14, 2010, 6:27 am

    I’ve not given shares any thought in a good long while. Too risky, for my liking. I mean, mining is always going to be a risk but what, exactly, would I own in a crash? Bad enough that there’s the natural risks, which can of course be substantial, but it’s worse, imo, when you have other considerations that are, for the most part, not related to profitably mining gold in a system of gold money.

    And that’s what’s keeping me out. I just don’t know what I would have, if anything. Would I still have a legit claim to those shares post-crash, if I paid for them with FRN? The other question is, would I WANT to own them in that situation? I mean, if they have creditors and all… they could just become worthless, or not near as much as saw me investing in that company in the first place.

    So I’m just wondering if anyone else has the same questions and, more importantly, answers… even if speculative/theoretical ones, I’m all ears!

    • fred September 25, 2010, 12:24 am

      We are local small scale miners. we have presently in stock 50 kg of Gold dust looking for a potential buyer. I observe all the prevailing international conditions allowed in the marketing of the products.

      1. Product: AU Metal
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      5.Quantity: 50 kilos
      6.Price: Negotiable

      We are also available to sign a long term contract agreement with any interested buyer for an agreed time period supply. we supply directly to the buyers destination when the need arises.
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  • mario cavolo September 14, 2010, 5:09 am

    Setting aside the very good ideas of high potential gold miner stocks and other gold-related disaster hedge ideas for a moment…

    I think there are lot of cynics out there who are going to have to accept the idea that just because the lives of 100,000,000 million or so Americans have been relatively spoiled along with a major shift in the fundamentals of the monetary system(the multi-trillion debt thing)….

    …doesn’t mean there isn’t a very large chunk of the world population who isn’t still fine. Whether you wish to define it as evil or fair or capitalism or socialism or U.S. or China or bankers or the now impotent self-serving political system, “they” are indeed richer than ever and business will continue to go along quite nicely in various sectors and regions across our planet.

    There has been a fundamental, transforming shift, with the U.S. at its core and so it is understandable that U.S. citizens most affected by it would be the most disturbed, but in the end its just a shifting into the next “cycle”, if you will, of global societal and monetary norms.

    For those who are poor, low income and middle income struggling to make a living, nothing much changes. It will always be a struggle for them in one way or another. Its just that this group of several billion has now been joined by around 50-100 million newly poor Americans who were, in fact, brainwashed into the whole concept of the middle class American dream lifestyle, now becoming obliterated for far too many.

    Looking at it on the global scale in this economic cycle: East is rising, West is declining. So, know it and adjust accordingly and as best you can to the present day reality in terms of business and your family.

    Like I’ve suggested before, if you have $500,000 and there’s inflation of 50% or your currency declines by 50%, you still have $250,000.

    Finally, a very important reminder to understand how powerful the China/Asia complex is. There is an off the books cash economy now estimated in China at somewhere in the TRILLIONS of dollars. We who live here fundamentally know it exists and same for many other areas of Asia. Take a moment to ponder what that really means in the big picture.

    I joined my colleagues in AmCham Shanghai this morning for a breakfast event with CA Governor Schwarzenegger here in Shanghai. You bet here he’s on a campaign to promote more business between California and China.

    Lastly, if there’s a way anyone can somehow gather and hang by their thumbs, the greedy bastards in control who are playing their games and pulling the strings, along with those who are allowing it to happen, causing so much suffering in the world, please do invite me to that party.

    Cheers all, Mario

    • Benjamin September 14, 2010, 6:41 am

      “…doesn’t mean there isn’t a very large chunk of the world population who isn’t still fine. Whether you wish to define it as evil or fair or capitalism or socialism or U.S. or China or bankers or the now impotent self-serving political system, “they” are indeed richer than ever and business will continue to go along quite nicely in various sectors and regions across our planet. ”

      (shrugs) I have no problem with their wealth, provided it was a) honestly gained and b) not part of the some 8,000 stolen tonnes of gold that is rightly the property of U.S. citizens. But hey, if it’s all/most paper/digital “wealth”, fine too. But when currencies go down the tubes, and they bring out their guns and armies and all-hell-broken-loose to force people to acknowledge that they are still “rich” because of it…

      …Well, they can all take a nice, long walk off a tall building. Hmm. Reminds me of my pirate comment yesterday. By the powers, we need a new version of walking the plank! ARRRGH!

      Now, if that seems mean/inhuman, just consider this…

      http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/09/bizarre-conection-between-son-of.html

      Not to rant off-topic, but it’s funny how one pastor who was going to freely, peacefuly express himself (burning a book hurts no one, foolish as I believe the act to be), was looked upon by the Establishment as if HE, and he alone, was responsible for the centuries-long tendency of Muslims to get angry and violent. It’s like that one incident was a “See how MAD you are, America/Islam?”

      So I give the story credibility. Playing both sides is something I can see the CIA and Imams doing. And that, in my judgement, is reason enough to more than hang them by their tumbs.