Deflation Returns with a Thunderclap

An interesting day, for sure. But a surprise?  It shouldn’t have been, since even the Guvvamint’s statisticians and spinmeisters seem to have noticed that The Great Recession is back with a vengeance. Under the circumstances, anyone so stupid as to be loaded to the gills with stocks deserved the full brunt of yesterday’s devastation.  The stock market’s collapse surely didn’t take us by surprise. The night before, under the headline “This Rally Is….Doomed!” we’d disseminated the following alert to subscribers: “The strong bounce off yesterday’s apparently oversold low is a fraud, and it is doomed, so we’ll have a very strong incentive to short every… rally target we can find…”  We’d also made the following declaration in commentary published here yesterday:  “Lest any of our own readers be shrouded by the fog of the Mainstream Media’s coverage of the financial markets and global economy, we’ll state for the record that the technical evidence is overwhelming that the Mother of All Bear Rallies begun in March of 2009 is over.”

If we sound pleased that the market appears, finally, to be having a massive heart attack, it’s because stocks for too long have been the captive of quasi-criminal forces that could charitably be described as pond scum.  The good news is that when the Dow is trading 10,000 points lower in a few years, no longer doing the bidding of high-frequency traders, mountebanks, thimble-riggers, Murphy men and arse bandits, that will set the stage for a true bull market that will run for a generation. At that point, with “money” no longer available interest-free and in practically unlimited quantities for rampant speculation, stocks will rise once again on their individual merits, savings will have a purpose, and capital will seek out its most productive uses. We hope we’re around when all of this comes to pass, as it eventually will.

What About Gold?

Meanwhile, the implosion of stocks that seems under way raises the question of whether deflation has finally overwhelmed the central banks’ prodigious but increasingly desperate efforts to resuscitate the economy. We think the answer is yes and that deflation will rule for the foreseeable future, asphyxiating not only the economy but nearly all investable assets.  A related question is whether gold and silver have made their final top. Although this is certainly possible, we strongly doubt it, since billions of people in this world have yet to understand that the paper money in their wallets, as well as the digital money in their bank accounts, is fundamentally worthless. When this epiphany finally hits it will trigger a hyperinflation that could send bullion prices soaring to perhaps unimagined heights. In the meantime, hard cash, intrinsically worthless though it be, actually will be king in the absence of easy credit.  Credit will be available in theory, but at usurious real rates and only with adequate collateral. Just what will pass muster as “adequate” collateral is a question still to be answered, but assets that qualify are certain to be far less valuable than real estate that’s already been hocked a dozen times over.  Whatever happens, Rick’s Picks will continue to track gold and silver diligently, since forecasting bullion correctly is something that we absolutely must get right. You can follow our forecasts, which are updated round-the-clock, by taking a  free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks. It will also give you access to the 24/7 chat room, to detailed trading “touts,” and to impromptu online trading-strategy sessions like the one held (and recorded: Staying Ahead of the Crash) yesterday.

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  • Arthur August 7, 2011, 8:56 am

    Why dont the politicians get the economy going by direct fiscal stimulus, spend on infrasttucture projects, this will create jobs and will ramp up the economic cycle. They can increase taxes in the future to pAy for it.

    • Robert August 9, 2011, 12:56 am

      Brilliant idea. How come no one in Washington has thought of that?

      Oh, that’s right- they DID, and were smacked in the face with the economic reality that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

      “Increase taxes in the future to pay for it…”

      Thanks Arthur- that was the best LOL I’ve had recently.

  • Rick J August 6, 2011, 6:04 am

    Hi Mario;
    Like you, I am struggling to figure out the asset mix required to survive this mess. I keep coming back to survival farm as number 1 but that has its difficulties.
    In the meantime I worry about the countless short opportunities out there, figure PPT might be justified in periodic interventions to keep the algo driven hedge funds honest and maybe that gives many of us an out.
    My current thinking is that I will let physical ride, take most of the stocks out of play and control the same appreciation potential with the long dated warrants and options.
    If ever there was a time for pension funds to wake up to gold it is now, but is just too thin for all of them to get involved. Food for thought is how little the US gold holding (assuming they still have it) is. 8133 tonnes and it is a fraction of a single year of budget deficit.

    • Robert August 9, 2011, 12:54 am

      Rick J :

      I’m with you- I don’t think you can go wrong with arable land over the next 20 years.

      and your point about the thin nature of the Gold market is the one primary reason why, in regard to the Gold price, I think we ain’t seen nothing yet…

  • Rick J August 6, 2011, 3:29 am

    Robert;
    I believe it is necessary to think through the amount of time you might have in any given scenario to exit any investment.
    Real estate and collectibles assume a functioning market where a great many people come through unscathed. Real estate (at least in the Western World), assumes a continuance of the availability of long term capital loans, ie. any sort of debt; whereas, the reality is that the ability to assume debt extending over periods of 25 years (let alone at a fixed rate) is a huge privilege taken for granted, particularly in America.
    There is a good chance that privilege will end.
    In a cash economy, you will have to pay cash. Think Argentina, where you will be laughed at if you ask for a 25 year fixed or any kind of long term mortgage.
    The government has no plan for exiting any debt incurred. Further, any attempt to make such a plan will highlight the impossibility of same. How can they balance the budget for say the next 5 years and pay down 1% of the debt per year at 0% interest? Any analysis should include all new off the book expenditures and loan guarantees.
    So you are left with dabbling in the quick profits which the banksters need to extend the game.
    And you need a survival farm, gold, and the usual red neck stuff; then play the game with the rest in my opinion.

    • mario cavolo August 6, 2011, 4:49 am

      Hi Rick J,

      Yes, similarly here in China cash is still king. Even currently with the new rise of wealth and increased use of mortgages to finance real estate, the down payments are 30 to 50% minimum, and the term of is rarely longer than 5-10-15 years. Our bank didn’t want to give my wife and I a 15 year mortgage because I’m 51!!

      Cheers, Mario

  • mario cavolo August 6, 2011, 3:22 am

    Uh oh … Shanghai time I just woke up to my espresso made in the traditional espresso pot I bought while in Perugia at Umbria Jazz, and the U.S. debt downgrade.

    Positive thinking: The market will hold steady and even rally to “cheer” the wisdom of sending a clear message to Washington that they need to get their act together, which seems to rightfully be a big part of S&P’s decision.

  • Robert August 5, 2011, 11:40 pm

    Cam, Rick, RichardB…

    Agree that “deflation” is the final outcome, but will it be BEFORE or AFTER an intermediate currency destruction period (all it a hyperinflation if you must)

    RichardB says inflation is a choice- so, do you REALLY think they won’t choose it?

    These arguments are just so pointless. Whether there is hyper-I before D, or D before hyper-I, or just D with no I, or just I with no D, how can you be adequately prepared to face either scenario?

    If you go for printed dollars, then your dead if I goes crazy. If you choose to buy a big ranch and a collection of old musclecars, then D will wipe you out.

    If you learn how to balance your estate so that you are not overweight in any one category (cash, financial assets/Gold, and real estate) then you will ride out any storm to come.

    • mario cavolo August 6, 2011, 2:48 am

      Hey Robert:

      Yea me too 🙂 let’s figure out what mix of assets to have to be able to make it through. As I’ve often quipped, I don’t care if its crude oil or extra virgin olive oil, let’s figure which one we should store value in, and maybe even get some growth along the way…

    • Rick Ackerman August 7, 2011, 9:20 pm

      Although I doubt the U.S. would ever “choose” to hyperinflate in Weimar fashion — especially since Weimar’s myriad instrumentalities, including a fully unionized workforce, are not in place — Schiff’s scenario comes closest to describing a hyperinflation that seems at least politically feasible. On his day of reckoning, when the Fed becomes the only “buyer” of Treasury paper, the realization will dawn that all other bond markets must be similarly supported or they’ll collapse. Will the Fed be able to react quickly enough to do what will need to be done? Or, will public confidence collapse before total or even partial monetization is effected? Both questions are unanswerable.

      Whatever happens, hyperinflation seems inevitable at some point, since it will require nothing more than the mass epiphany that our paper and digital money are worthless. The eventual outcome could only be deflation, however, since the economy at that point will be operating without credit, presumably via barter. However, even if we “know” this will be the outcome, it is impossible to predict how we’ll get there or which what assets will perform best post-crash. For instance, Gold could spike to $50,000/oz if all paper claims on physical are exercised. But would prices stay at those levels long enough to be exchanged for, say, farm land, or food? And, how would the futures exchanges react? Would they allow short sellers to renege on their obligations, since those obligations could never be fulfilled anyway?

      There are more politicial, logistical and psychological variables than can be modeled, and anyone who claims to know what will happen in the wake of the global financial system’s all-too-predictable flash crash is peddling snake oil.

    • Cam Fitzgerald August 8, 2011, 9:41 am

      You are right Rick. None of us knows exactly how this will play out and so we are running around like chickens with our heads cut off, hoping for easy salvation that will not come.

      I am stocking up on trade goods.

      That is one of my solutions that perhaps makes no sense to most people. I keep it real and tangible in that respect.

      My simple reasoning is that we simply do not know what will happen to our financial assets during the real end game. We still need to survive day to day though. Better to be prepared than to trust that all will be OK.

      My philosophy runs thus. Buy and store extra quantities of all the items I know I will use anyway. If there is no bad outcome I have lost nothing as normal inflation ensures my past purchases will hold value through any tumult that might arise.

      If there is a bad outcome…..I will be ready for it.

    • Robert August 9, 2011, 12:49 am

      “anyone who claims to know what will happen in the wake of the global financial system’s all-too-predictable flash crash is peddling snake oil.”

      -Absolutely. No future can be predicted. There is no crystal ball.

      But then, I don’t think that being confident in your own abilities to weather any storm exposes any form of hubris, either.

      If we devolve into a world where Gold will find no purchase, then I can damn sure guarantee that there will be no form of government issued IOU that will serve said purpose either.

  • Rick J August 5, 2011, 11:26 pm

    Well Rick, I have to admire your straight out, no ifs, thens,or buts call. I like that. I remember Martin Murenbeeld, used to publish 3 scenarios, to accompany his market estimates of a gold price, he could never be wrong.
    I am sorry that I have not shorted the general market, my portfolio is stuffed to the gills with physical gold funds and gold stocks, warrants and options. About half is physical and I really do not worry about that, as I consider downside of 25% or so a survivable, short-lived event which cannot survive the bargain hunting central banks and Chinese whose portfolios are stuffed GCOC`s, what Franz Pick used to describe as Guv certificates of confiscation. I avoid GLD so as to cut counterparty risk.
    I do worry about the gold stocks as the banksters know it is endgame stuff, and likely want to end up owning it all after they squeeze the living breath out of it. I have been hoping that the markets could hold together long enough into Nov.-December period, that I could harvest a 20-40% gain between now and then. (I average 25% per year over 10 years) But I worry about the big one happening in October. I am pondering keeping and adding to the warrants and options and unloading the shares.

  • Cam Fitzgerald August 5, 2011, 7:03 pm

    Having said all that. I offer a contrary opinion regarding the purchase of stocks in this environment and suggest why we should not be fearful to wade in now.

    Yesterday I touched briefly on the topic of shifting sentiments in investment markets (not on this site). I told you there was a finite amount of capital available to be shared around and that the US needs its fair share.

    The problem evolving now is that as Euro issues offer higher rates (and everyone and his dog still chase yield) that there is now serious competition for bond issues.

    This is no small matter.

    The US (and Canada) are offering near historical low rates on its various Treasury and bond issues. This in the face of above average returns offered all over Europe. This is also in the face of good returns offered in Asia where interest rates are steadily rising to head off inflation.

    Can you see how the competition for money is heating up?

    So how is the funding gap closed without increasing rates on this continent and ensuring no issue goes unloved and undersold?

    Well a damn good equity scare can send money fleeing for safety. You don’t even need bad news to make that happen, just the cooperation of major buyers to pull the rug out from under the markets. That takes a few phone calls to achieve in the real world. It is called unconventional marketing and strategy.

    That works for awhile anyway.

    It will not work forever though. At some point, rates here at home must rise to attract capital back to these shores. Rates must rebalance to match global markets.

    In other words, interest rates will march higher in the coming months and years and there is no if, and’s or but’s about it. This is not even an option at this point.

    Equity flight meanwhile is a temporary fools game. P/E’s are great, prices have dropped nicely, earnings results show over 75% of companies beat estimates and with falling commodity and input costs earnings will rise next quarter.

    You can only scare the poop out of investors for so long before they cotton on and react by buying what is actually on sale. By buying what is quality.

    If you are investing right now you do need to be aware that there is a tremendous competition amongst a wide variety of issuers for your money.

    You will be rewarded short term for buying some issues on the panic trade, punished harshly for refusing to sell others as they decline symptomatically.

    All I am saying is that the set-up to reinvest in equities with a good upside is nearing and the gold miners in particular look to have a terrific growth potential (I have a love-hate relationship with them but cannot deny the opportunity to own improves daily).

    Europe meanwhile is sagging and with its troubles is sucking the wind out of other markets as capital shifts there for the juicy yields.

    The only response in the US would be to harvest equity investors and pension fund money back into Treasuries despite the terrible returns.

    Fear works. But fear not.

    Then go forth……and prosper.

    • Chris T. August 5, 2011, 8:44 pm

      “You can only scare the poop out of investors for so long before they cotton on and react by buying what is actually on sale. By buying what is quality.”

      Except for the fact that NO one who buys a stock with hopes of selling it higher is investing in the first place. That is a mirage which has been disseminated so completely, as to be taken for real.

      Such an approach is speculation, pure and simple, and is a zero sum game. Nothing wrong with speculation at all, and no need to deny one is doing it. But it is not for the majority, which is why average investors have such a poor track record, as do most managers long term.
      And most of the speculative gains are not real, they are merely nominal, not possible if money supply were (to a large extent) fixed.

      True stock investing is taking a position in an enterprise and then participating in its return, ie dividends.
      But, who does THAT any longer?
      That’s why people buy Apple of Google?
      With P/Es of 20 being the new normal, and 30-50 not uncommon even now , it’s obvious no one buys equities for their yields.

      P/Es of 20 do look attractive when compared to interest rates of 0.25-2.5%, but that is a distortion itself, as pointed out above for the long term.

      And how many trillions really would be held by all if the DJIA went from 11500 to 2000?
      A bunch, but a lot less than is apparent. Because prices are at the margin, and in this scenario there is no margin, much, if not most is a phantom sum.
      Any one investor may have ploughed money in at the current price, but of course not all did, same in reverse.

    • mario cavolo August 6, 2011, 2:40 am

      Nice approach here Cam. As you say, in the balance of things, in order to maintain enough of an environment for flight to safety and low interest rates to continue, which is a must, there’s nothing like a little panic 🙂

  • Cam Fitzgerald August 5, 2011, 6:57 pm

    Terrific commentary Rick. Glad to see you are wholeheartedly back in the deflation camp. You were in fact right all along in my opinion. Deflation is going to be the end result. We cannot easily divine the machinations of government in the future though. Everything could change. For the moment, cash will indeed be king and so we must stay focussed on making money and protecting it against the adversity that it encounters as time passes. I am not going overweight gold and silver anymore though. Not in this environment. The time will come but it is not here yet.

  • Marketace33 August 5, 2011, 6:53 pm

    Wow the market enters a correction that it has avoided for two years and now the gloom and doom predictions know no bounds. It is easy to predict that Bernanke will not do QE3, but no one explains how the gov’t will continue to function without any money printing.

    It is also easy to predict that the DOW will fall to 2,000, but where will all the money go if stocks are sold to that level? It is hard to imagine trillions being held in the asset -cash that is also declining in value every day as all govt’s are forced to just keep creating it out of thin air.

    There is deflation from pure paralysis in buyers for all assets, but massive flooding of dollars into the economies of the world will off-set that to a great degree in absolute dollar terms. There will be a great loss of purchasing power, but in dollar terms stocks (and all assets) can move higher, making playing the short side very dangerous over the long term.

    If markets do crash to extreme low levels, does anyone think they will really collect on those inverse ETF’s, options or puts and that bamks and markets will not be closed or on long holidays.

    I’ll take my chances with gold any day.

  • Randall August 5, 2011, 6:32 pm

    So given the macro view, what is the scoop on treasury short ETFs (TBT, TMV, TBF)?

  • RichardB August 5, 2011, 5:18 pm

    Deflation has never left us Rick. You and I have emailed on this. I could show FOFOA deflation on a common chart. It is pretty obvious if you know where to look for it. As I said before, inflation is a choice.

    I think this sell off is about the fear that the politicians have no bullets left. Someone is going to lose their money. They wonder – will it be me, or you or someone we know?

    I still do not read key and pertinent facts about the inflation/deflation debate in the media discussions. One needs to look deeper into the issue that reading popular opinion.

  • Chris T. August 5, 2011, 4:12 pm

    Rick,

    “that when the Dow is trading 10,000 points lower in a few years, …that will set the stage for a true bull market that will run for a generation”

    Seeing as that would be a <2000 Dow, you are basically pointing to a DJIA/Gold ration of 1, or rather less than 1, assuming gold will have, by-then, reached its infla.-adjusted 1980 high.

    I had planned on thinking about stocks at about 1.5, maybe that would be too early?

    Roger Ericson:
    "… QE’s 1&1 did squat. "

    That depends on what you think it was intended to do.
    To "jump start" the economy, or to "smooth out" the bottom? Prob. correct.
    But if you think that it was a program intended to funnel much mulah to the powers that control us, then it/they actually was/were a VERY successful program.
    After all, the 3-5 trillion didn't just disappear, you just have to look at last years G-Sucks bonuses to see that.

  • Robert August 5, 2011, 4:08 pm

    “We think the answer is yes and that deflation will rule for the foreseeable future, asphyxiating not only the economy but nearly all investable assets.”

    – And, Ben Bernanke will finally abandon his fundamental viewpoint that he was placed on this earth to out-print the forces of deflation…

    Nope, I just don’t think so. The only thing that will be different this time is there will be no grandstanding and no podium announcements heralding the next round of QE.

    Instead, the Fed will quietly increase the reserve holding rate for the Big Banks to 10%+, and will drop the funds rate to .001%- They will probably embed this info somewhere in the fine print of some FOMC meeting minutes . The only ones that will pick it up and run any analysis will be zerohedge and the other hard-core online services. There will be zip, nada, zero in the MSM about it.

    This effort will ensure that the primary dealers always have sufficient liquidity to off-load all the humongous Treasury auctions coming down the pike. Interest rates will hover between -.5% and .5% for the next 600,000 years. The “bubble” that is the price of Gold will run right alongside the bubble in oil, and the bubble in cheerios, and the bubble in diapers, and the bubble in everything that not listed as one of the 3 primary components of the “newest, latest, greatest and bestest CPI ever”- namely, Helicopters, Nuclear Submarines, and CrystalMeth.

    The only way I see a real “deflation” (where real prices are burdened and the creditors take as much pain as the debtors in a rising interest rate environment) can play out is if the Fed reverses course completely and totally keeps out of it, thereby relinquishing itself to complete and utter uselessness… and the chances of that are…. Honestly?

    zero.

    • Chris T. August 5, 2011, 4:15 pm

      “This effort will ensure that the primary dealers always have sufficient liquidity to off-load all the humongous ‘Treasury auctions coming down the pike.”

      Fekete once more: check out his articles on the front-running of the open market operations

    • Benjamin August 5, 2011, 8:03 pm

      Hey, Robert!

      The problem with whole hyper-inflation argument, imv, is that it assumes an endless amount of assets, collateral, and savings exist by which the endless cash can be created to keep gold prices reaching for infinity. And Fed money creation, rather than bringing about that outcome, will turn out to punish any such flight to real safety, and in the most brutal fashion. How so?

      Government debt is “secure”, in that the Fed will at some point monetize it. But if the big game players were to suddenly sink money into gold, rather than back into Treasurys, the means to drive up the gold price would disappear to the extent which the flight to real safety commenced. Another way to look at it is that even emergency exits can crumble into graves when a building just implodes.

      But it gets worse. That same terror tactic utilized by the Fed against real safety, ensures death to the players who are (temporarily) allowed to live. The cost of staying in the bond game can only rise. And even when the Fed will be the only one giving money to government, there’ll be far too many gravesites for the inept government to tend to. Government will be busy buying out the busted; the Fed sure as hell won’t be giving government money so that it can buy back the gold that central banking has been quietly vaccuming up all these years.

      But again, this doesn’t mean gold and silver can’t rise spectacularly. Some wealth will certainly make the trip. But by no means will all of it do so, or even the majority of it. The game is geared to prevent that from happening.

      The only way that gold can go to the moon is if big business is given the legal authority to print FRN. But that is simply not going to happen. The most likely outcome is that, after everything goes to hell and back, then back to hell again… Is that gold goes blackmarket, whilst some quantity permantly removed by the sheer desperation of the seller (to a certain buyer).

    • Robert August 5, 2011, 11:27 pm

      “The problem with whole hyper-inflation argument, imv, is that it assumes an endless amount of assets, collateral, and savings exist by which the endless cash can be created to keep gold prices reaching for infinity. ”

      – Weimar, exactly. 1 ounce of Gold could not be priced or even quoted in DM in the 1920’s. Even with Trillion Mark bills in circulation, there was not enough currency to “purchase”a single ounce of Gold anywhere in Germany…. BUT, anyone who had an ounce of Gold in Germany could trade it for lots of food, or real estate, or livestock, or just about anything else they wanted for it.

      Oh, and for the record- I’m not anticipating a hyper- inflation in the sense that prices will explode overnight and products will disappear from store shelves. I’m anticipating a hyper LONG inflation where real prices on basic staples (food, fuel, and sundry necessities) will rise at 10%+ per year for a period of decades, while non-monetary asset prices stagnate…

      Since you can’t easily trade a house for a cheeseburger, houses will maintain no marginal utility value other than as a source of shelter to the occupant. In other words- our houses will (finally) revert back to what they should have always been properly classified as- long life durable consumer goods, and not permanent wealth.

      That is our future, and 2011 is year one. If you are scared of this future, then that fear is your subconscious mind’s way of telling you that you are not adequately prepared.

  • Alchemisteve August 5, 2011, 3:15 pm

    As I recall, Fekete predicted permanent (or at least long term) backwardation, where the paper price might fall, but the price of physical would not. When the prices of gold coins fall, the premiums go up, as there is more demand than supply. I’d rather hold gold than not …

    • Chris T. August 5, 2011, 4:06 pm

      Best to look at the link Benjamin provided, and read it directly, Fekete is always worth your time, even if only to challenge you to think how to refute if you don’t agree.

      I think he has basically pointed out an eventual divorce altogether of the real vs. the make-believe gold market, where the paper price no longer has any relation to the physical.
      While reading Fekete, check out his articles on the disappearing basis, which is the move from the contango to the backwardation mentioned.

  • bobby August 5, 2011, 1:41 pm

    Rick,
    Are we going to revisit the deflation/inflation debate? I am really confused now.

    bobby

    • Rick Ackerman August 7, 2011, 8:18 pm

      Both, although obviously at different times. Hope that clears things up.

  • Roger Erickson August 5, 2011, 1:40 pm
  • Darren August 5, 2011, 12:52 pm

    Wait a minute Rick, did you just predict hyperinflation? I may have missed something but I though you’ve been arguing long & hard that that wasn’t going to happen. What changed?

    I would like to suggest that hyperinflation most likely won’t happen. We will see perhaps high double digit or even triple digit inflation (yearly numbers), yes, but we won’t become Zimbabwe west.

  • Benjamin August 5, 2011, 6:24 am

    Regarding gold… There’s been some talk and questions around here of late concering what “gold” will do in the coming/arrived bear. This has prompted me to consult with the many essays written by Antal Fekete, specifically those that talk about backwardation. If one is not familiar with Fekete’s work…

    http://www.professorfekete.com/articles.asp

    To jump right into things, do a ctrl-f page search for backwardation. That will take the reader to a cluster of essays written in late 2008. But many more essays also deal with the subject, in further detail.

    Anyway, from what I gather, seems the futures are dependent on the availability of easy credit. If that stops or slows too much, then the futures price falls.

    Normally, the spot price would fall and land below the futures price, to maintain contango. However, this is a secular credit contraction we’re talking about here. All obligations that were previously “serviced” by easy credit won’t be kept bouyant, let alone rising in price.

    And that is why gold will still be retained and sought. It’s no ones obligation. But it doesn’t matter what the spot price would do. Up or down, it will be out-performing credit and debt-based investments.

  • mario cavolo August 5, 2011, 5:05 am

    There’s another point: If this sharp decline is justified and explained as being a final recognition of the underlying financial instability, the spreading sovereign debt crisis (that IS the core problem, right?) then why isn’t gold and silver soaring? Answers?; speculative trading profit-taking, manipulation, takedowns, propping, intervention by DaBoyz; still not regarded widely enough as a safe haven alternative.

    Look at crude right now (11am EST Fri), it finally bottomed all the way at the exact proper chart target of 85. A child could see it! I surmise, postulate as I said, because of the HFT algo machines and everyone following them, the moves/corrections that used to take 1-3 months now can occur in 1-3 days and are played out; then the whole thing resets to new parameters.

    Its always been understood that markets go down faster than they go up, now more so than ever. Yet perhaps that puts false fear in the air for onlookers who don’t realize what’s happening in the system behind the scenes?

    Cheers, Mario

    • Benjamin August 5, 2011, 8:15 am

      “…then why isn’t gold and silver soaring? Answers?”

      Hi, Mario. To answer that, see my post below. Just note that that’s a generality, over time and key events, not an explanation for anything at the moment. The key point is that gold and silver prices can rise, bounce around in ranges, and even drop as this depression unfolds. In the end, imv, it will be all about how much they didn’t sink when compared to all else.

    • Mario cavolo August 5, 2011, 8:32 am

      Yea actually Benjamin I need to retract that goldnquestion and observation as too broad . I was only thinking of it in terms of the short term reaction decline. Over the past years gold has in fact been rising steadily and outperforming….cheers, Mario

    • Benjamin August 5, 2011, 9:20 am

      No problem, mario. I was going to say what you said, but just didn’t want to give the impression that I think gold will definitely rise. Because that idea can be argued against!

  • mario cavolo August 5, 2011, 3:39 am

    The danger that exists today more than ever is in the easily and widely available methods to go short; all such smart investors who go short may be the short that leads us right to hell.

    Such sophisticated and advanced techniques used to be limited to the futures trading pits but now, like I said yesterday, everybody knows everything about everything including the world of calls, puts and inverse etf’s. As the upward move seemed to magically feed on itself driven by HFT’s, so will the downward likewise, even quite detached from the actuality of any fundamentals behind it.

    The problem I suddenly sense is that an upward move is the healthy while the downward move will be like a tsunami that financially destroys much in its path as the waves of selling continue; widespread short selling mechanisms destroying the very financial and economic system upon which they are based. Will I go short? Of course, without blinking an eye. And that truth may in fact be the problem.

    I guess perhaps this is similar to the idea of the “bond vigilantes” who go and plunder the markets like lions & tigers out for the kill, destroying the markets along the way. Well, I am sensing then the “we” has become a much more widespread “market vigilantes” problem, we can short our collective selves to hell, while the clueless masses pay the price all across the economic globe.

    With respect to the above comments, keep in mind that unlike many of you who have been active traders for decades and therefore very familiar with more aggressive trading methods such as options strategies and short selling, I only started trading short and intermediate term moves starting around 3 years ago.

    So perhaps Rick’s iconic California blond might say “Oh so, like, um if we all go short won’t that like destroy everything or something?”

    • DarkestKight August 5, 2011, 3:49 am

      I disagree, Mario. As you would by now know, it’s tough to be short and is not an easy means to ‘wealth’. Many amateur traders (myself included) know how it feels to get wiped out from a short-squeeze. No, the real enemy is the the old Pump & Dump trick, leaving the poor unsuspecting ‘small investor’ as the bag-holder.
      You say today we have ‘many more methods available to go short’- many more than, say 1929-32?
      Didn’t prevent an 89% drop then did it?
      GL with the short anyway!

    • mario cavolo August 5, 2011, 4:42 am

      Morning DK (I’m in Shanghai)

      Whoa! 🙂 the old “pump ‘n dump” trick? That’s EXACTLY the same, a “short” direction pump ‘n dump in the opposite direction to hell…driving all the prices down down down, profiting in short positions along the way, selling the rallies, leaving the economic damage in the wake, then snapping up the bargains at the bottom and then reverse to pump and dump it all back up again. In this way of looking at it, this we can also say is the smart money dumping into the dumb hands, long or short, same difference.

      Now with that said, this next short position pump ‘n dump down will occur in the midst of a financial system that is more unstable than ever, with in fact a few extra trillion USD floating around that didn’t even exist before the ’08 crisis hit. As many have said, if anything, the underlying financial situation has gotten even worse and so a wave downward could be more now than ever a real Hawaii north shore wipe out.

      The hopefully saving grace in my mind is the mistake of underestimating the amount of wealth which exists more widespread than ever at the upper middle income class level. As I’ve written in past articles, while 100 million or Americans have been screwed, the rest of the American population is richer than ever. The same is true for Asia Pacific led by China, hundreds of million of people with new wealth they never had before.

    • Onoiro August 5, 2011, 6:15 am

      Remove the shorts and you just removed those last remnants who are willing to buy into the market.

    • Roger Erickson August 5, 2011, 1:20 pm

      “everybody knows everything about everything including the world of calls, puts and inverse etf’s”

      Sadly, that’s not close to true. Half my neighbors, several well retired, have seen more than 50% loss in their retirement portfolios since 2008, & still know nothing except to leave it to their brokers at Fidelity et al. Worse, several don’t even have internet connections, and steadfastly hold to the belief that Obama is a good man who’s tragically misunderstood by all the “mean cynics”. They flat-out don’t want to have to know, and if things get much worse, will swap their John Deere for a rifle before agreeing to become active traders. Rightly so, they feel a betrayal of civic duty. They did their job, & ask why the hell Wall St and “someone else’s” politicians aren’t doing theirs.

      There are still plenty of pensions still to be plundered.

  • jj August 5, 2011, 3:32 am

    Fridays NFP numbers if really bad could produce a bottom in the equity markets…crazy as it sounds it would open the window for QE#3…the ECB suggested more bond buying of Greek-Italian debt this am.

    The Bearnank could announce or atleast hint next tuesday more QEasing and reflate the equity markets…yet again…tuff call though…will gold get whacked further as money pours back into general equities removing the risk trade or will it take off breaking $1700 ….exciting times indeed

    • Roger Erickson August 5, 2011, 1:12 pm

      If no one noticed, QE1 and QE1 did squat. QE involves the FED buying back longer term Treasury Securities from private hands, in a vain attempt to encourage banks into shorter term vehicles (supposedly even business loans). It’s dominant effect was to scare the confused into moving unrelated financial assets overseas to cause inflation there and weaken the $Fx here. Everyone knows this now, and most are catching on to the fact that it doesn’t matter HOW much currency is hoarded as bank reserves.

      Until customers have access to currency to buy something with, no businesses will expand capacity, and no bank will lend to businesses without growing customers.

      The FED ceded all power to the Treasury when the gold stanrdard ended, and they’ve just been trying to appear to be useful. That’s actually backfired because they’ve encouraged clueless politicians that the FED can still matter on on its own, thereby delaying discussion of more active public policy.

      The emperor not only has no clothes, he has no discourse either, just mumbo jumbo. Might as well keep reading priestly incantations in Latin and hope the peasants are cowed.

      Summary is that the FED can alter the cost of moving $US around, but not the supply. Only the US Treasury can do that, and at the moment they & the White House are totally owned by DaBoyz with offices on Wall St.

      Sad to say, you better watch out for yourself for the time being, until we can get an electorate a bit more motivated to vote. There’s no place to hide from crazy neighbors.