Stocks Blithely Ignore Traditional Warning Signs

(I wrote here recently that the stock market is almost completely driven these days by algorithmic trading and prop-desk automotons who couldn’t care less about whether the ups and all-too-infrequent downs of the broad averages accurately reflect “reality.” Following is a post from the Rick’s Picks forum by “3 Lions” that nicely frames the insanity of it all. The theme is especially timely given the mini flash-crash perpetrated in bullion Monday night. This brazen, quasi-criminal shakedown not only allowed DaScumballs –aka the Night Shift – to steal gold and silver futures for far less than they were to fetch later that morning in more liquid markets, but to pick off widows and pensioners in some key stocks that trade round-the-clock, such as Apple, IBM and Google. RA)

Unequivocally, we have reached a watershed in the history of the U.S. stock market and therefore global stock markets. Never mind whether traders or investors are making money or not; the stock market has now become nothing more than a casino where the “table” almost always wins.  Business-news channels in the USA are nothing more than offshoots of Hollywood sitcom studios which 20 years ago would have been rejected for children’s TV as being too dumbed down.  The U.S. stock market has become so far detached from reality that justifiably it cannot be called a stock “market.” 

Standard equipment nowadays for prop-desk traders?

Those of us who believe that one of the best ways to keep proper tabs on the financial charade is by perusing the consistently accurate touts in Rick’s Picks should spare a thought for those still bogged down in ancient trading methodology, such as Elliott Wave analysis, that began life when the stock market was indeed a “market.”  A trading/investing friend of mine had 24 years in a row of profits until 2009/2010, when his proprietary trading method failed dismally.  During the last 18 months, Bob Prechter has had more wrong calls than the Shanghai telephone exchange, and Dr. McHugh likewise. (I must point out that I have great respect for both of these men — they are still as clever as they always have been, it is just that the rules have changed).

What Hindenburg?

It even looks like the otherwise invincible Charlie Nenner has got the top wrong (some say he is a secret agent of Goldman Sachs, but he does get it right 90% of the time).  There are so many charting indicators (i.e., no fewer than six Hindenburg omens) that say this market should be collapsing  — but it isn’t…so far.  To cap it all, the infallible and rare VIX Bollinger signal almost two weeks ago signaled “down, down, down,” but in fact we have gone up, up, up!  Meanwhile, the latest figures reveal that U.S. corporate insiders are selling 1411 shares (!) for every share they’re buying.

Undoubtedly, this market will not go down until “Da Boyz” are totally overwhelmed by some kind of trigger event that sets off a chain of events that will see the legs of their “table” collapse.  It will be a “flash crash” of immense proportions rather than a “stair-step” decline. The only thing that is still favorable to Main Street is low interest rates, so when they start to rise, that will most likely be the trigger.

Good trading.

(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)

  • Benjamin September 30, 2010, 2:57 am

    Steve,

    Seeing as how my sort of peeved response has irked you, I feel owe a response. In a nutshell…

    Q: Well? Does history have anything to teach or not?

    A: If so, then we must accept that history was no Eden. If not, then we can only learn what history has to teach by repeating it, which is logically and realistically impossible because we can’t repeat what was never there to be learned in the first place. So I vote for no Eden 🙂

    In more detail, during your childhood, markets and politics were already sick. There was nothing at all moral about the BW gold standard, and it was bound to fail, what with gold being under centralized authority as it remains to this day. You just didn’t know they were until later. And why would you have? Things seemed okay.
    By the same token, and having experienced those same nicieties as you did growing up, I never would’ve guessed that the 80s that I grew up in were some seriously troubled times. Throughout the 90s to today, I’ve come learn otherwise and the why behind it. Some people from your generation haven’t figured it. Some people from mine haven’t.

    So we’re no different from one another nor do we come from different times. Not from my perspective, anyway, which is why all I am say-ying… is give perspective a chance, warts and all. The past saw silver demon(et)ized, followed by a purposeful and successful attempt to do the same to gold; the efficient and free agrarians handed themselves over to the government bailout gallows, upon discovering Liberty (but all eggs in one basket) leads to over-abundant and unprofitable production; same as industry when it’s efficiencies became such to overwhelm it’s own profitability alongside all the other social memes; the present sees a desperatation to keep all these problems from coming back to bite in the keester.

    Lots of mistakes, all coming to a head now, are going to need correcting. But that we haven’t put it out and rewired yet means we’re no better than anyone in the past who miswired it, not worse (not that I don’t have my moments where I fantacise differently).

    As to why Edenism bothers me… Well, pretty much all my life I’ve been getting an earful about how (then) “you kids these days”. And after a while, you get tired of hearing about it from the elders that, because social security didn’t turn out that way, have to take it out on the fact that you can’t give them as much they would like (god bless the royal highnesses). Boxer worked harder, then Atlas shrugged. And now, many kids, being dumbfounded in all this, too confused and broke to even try… all the while, the adults do nothing better, reminisce about a overly glorious past that wasn’t, and mire themselves at a Hell’s Gate of today that, while it’s partly true, is not so thoroughly hopeless as they would like.

    Escapism and scape-goating, that’s why. It had nothing to do with the post I responded to, but it wasn’t intended to be taken that way. What I was getting at was that yesterday, there was gold, so maybe that was why there were flash crashes. Today, the fall seems painfuly slow and drawn out. No gold to give an indication. I don’t know, but it makes sense to me. We’ll have to (on the whole) agree to drop this fiat system. Until then, it will crush and kill, crush and kill… just like it’s doing.

    • Steve September 30, 2010, 6:41 am

      Agree with summary. At about 30 years of age I think you are getting screwed by the boyz. I may just understand how bad you are getting screwed from a longer/older perspective. The “thing” started sideways in 1776 when good got the best of evil, it got worse in 1867, fell in a hole in 1934, and went to crap in 1971. Now, here we are in 2010 with the majority wanting exactly what ‘is’, and the political machine working to keep things as they are. The people here are nail heads sticking up out of the deck. Isn’t there a Japanese saying about that ?

    • Benjamin September 30, 2010, 6:38 pm

      Glad we can see eye to eye. I don’t know about Japanese sayings, but we’ve definitely got a situation here, no doubt about that.

      My biggest worry… It’s only human that we look on the past with a certain fondness. Which is why I hate Eden-smashing. Feels inhuman. It was good, for many, for a while. There were good things, damn good thigns, in my time, as there were in yours. Will those memories endure growing criticisms? I look back, and anymore it’s a dull memory most of the time, colored more now with what I didn’t know then. Imagining 30 years from now, it doesn’t seem at all likely I will ever see the world the same way. And I want to.

      To be perfectly honest, my knowledge of goodness is only a hope (though one I side with for it’s soundness in Principle). That, and little Led Zeppelin never hurts…

      “So now you’d better stop and rebuild all your ruins
      For peace and trust can win the day despite of all your losing”

      🙂

  • Cameroni September 29, 2010, 10:11 pm

    That was a terrific article “3 Lions”.

    I have many of the same reactions to the marker lately as you do and although I also appreciate the insights and talent of guys like Bob Prechter and Dr Robert McHugh it does appear that something is no longer adding up.

    I suggested as much in my own commentary when I wrote that technical analysis itself was now under attack and very susceptible to manipulation. The suggestion is that we can no longer rely on many of the indicators that the experts are using to chart the future. Furthermore, it has occurred to me that at a time when very few “real” investors still populate the markets that “very little effort” and not a whole lot of money can move markets in the direction of choice for those who are still participating.

    We are getting false signals every single day and that is only leading investors to be fearful of everything. Is it any wonder that money has panicked and fled to the safety of bonds? And what safety are bonds when the dollar itself is going through a transformative devaluation that is draining wealth and buying power even as it offers historical low interest rates.

    It is robbery by manipulation and I would strongly urge anyone with any sense to not run to that (so-called) refuge of safety but instead take a closer look at what is really moving in the markets. A lot of money is being made out there right now and it is not by people holding short positions and waiting for Armageddon.

    Are we actually being cheated through a manipulation in the marketplace that pushes the herd to the cliff edge while all the real bargains are picked up at a fraction of their cost and our “safety” picks just drain our assets away? You better believe it. I am convinced this is a time of incredible buying opportunities despite the hazards of a sharp market sell-off. The risks can mirror the rewards in this kind of an environment but this really is a game for day-traders and those blessed with better than average market intuition and killer instincts.

    So can you still make money? Absolutely. I would keep an eye on commodities, precious metals juniors, ETF’s encompassing developing markets and strategic resource plays that are overlooked by most other people. Rare earths are of of course but one example.

    This is a great time to be a “stock picker” and do your own leg work. The easy money days when almost everything rose more or less in unison are gone for awhile and yet selective companies are doing stellar business and paying out the goods.

    I wish I could depend on guys like Prechter and McHugh but the world of investing has become a casino of poor odds (as many others have noted) and the face cards are now in the hands of insiders who are yanking our chains and sending a multitude of shock-waves of fear through the ranks of investors to the point that the herd is primed and ready to move off the cliff in unison.

    Let’s stay sane and not join them in that big leap.

    And in the meantime, I would just caution to say that it will pay to stay on top of backstopping for losses and be prepared for the culminating event that brings this manipulation to a sorry conclusion.

  • GLENNH September 29, 2010, 9:53 pm

    Rick, The comments on EWI are sound, in that you need at least some free trading to reflect the current investment mood in the prices, although there are lot of other people who need a poke in the eye other than Pretcher. He made some great calls since 2000, always early but right in the big direction and he stuck by his calls.

    The DOW/Gold has been doing it’s job of tracking real gains and losses. Look at that chart and tell me that the value of other fiat, equity paper has not already seen a horrible crash. The debasement that everyone is so eager to observe (as in a crashing DOW/S&P et al) has already occured. The DOW used to by 50 oz now it buys 7. Sure it could drop to 3 or 1 but the big slide is over and the middle class is getting poor in a hurry.

    • GLENNH September 29, 2010, 9:55 pm

      One of me kids pointed out the DOW buys 8.2 ozs. Smart ass.

    • Chris T. September 30, 2010, 2:41 am

      But 8.2 vs. 7 is huge.
      The only way to really look at a chart, as I would think most here know, is if it is a semi-log chart.

      Do that with the Gold/Dow, and then please rethink your claim that the HUGE drop of this ratio is over?.

      A 1-1.5 ratio is not impossible, it has already happened 2 times in the last 100 years, as you know.

      From 8 to 1.5 is a loss of about 80%, certaily a huge loss, and the semi-log shows it easily.
      It is a drop equal to what has already happend, which is a decline from 42 to 8.2 (42, not 50 I believe at the top, but correct that if wrong, have no Au-Dow chart handy).

  • Chris T. September 29, 2010, 9:19 pm

    Other than to traders and still mislead “investors”, this whole goosing the market [which is primarily the DOW] thing would not matter:

    IFF

    people had not been so conditioned (brainwashed?) into accepting the Dow as some sort of surrogate for the “economy”, and also conditioned (brainwashed?) into accepting more that which THEY tell us than that which we ourselves perceive/observe.

    Of course, that an equities index, esp. the DOW, should be a surrogate for good times is bunk.
    If the hoi-polloi ever realized that, then the efficacy of all this manipulation would be very little.
    The Dow would then have the same import in this respect as the Russel 2000, or even the Nasdaq etc, do now — not much.

    That is the converse of gold:
    It THEY know has significance, and thus THEY talk it down, they take it down, etc.

    Recently, someone here posted about market tops, referencing the DO, etc.
    Well, looking at market tops, no one ever talks about the S&P 500, all you have there is one huge, decades long double top, and no resolution yet of that formation.

  • Steve September 29, 2010, 8:33 pm

    Never ask a question that you do not know the answer to.

    One tends to live into their expectations.

    Head in sand produces unclear vision, and plugged ears.

    • keith September 29, 2010, 8:55 pm

      Steve, very insightful information and I agree with you. It’s all going to crash but “you, me and generations” isn’t a column on the balance sheet of the Fed. You still didn’t answer my question. Who did the Federal Reserve lend money from? It’s something that deflationists don’t talk about at parties: because the truth is they can create money out of thin air that doesn’t have to be paid back.

    • Chris T. September 29, 2010, 9:23 pm

      “Never ask a question that you do not know the answer to.”

      If you’re a prosecutor or defense attorney, true.

      Other than that, why bother ever asking any questions if you believe that mantra?
      You already know, so asking is a waste of your and the others’ time.

      Short of doing this with a didactic purpose,
      only questions one does NOT know the answer to should be asked.

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 9:46 pm

      Chris T., Listen, Read, Study, Learn. Propaganda works because the student is empty, and filled with garbage by a professor who has an agenda, and it is rarely Truth at the likes of Yale, with the bones. The point is that there is more than asking questions. I could say, never accept the answer to a question unless you are willing to do the research yourself to prove the provider correct. As to attorney’s and the such – way to much experience at watching the judge coach the attorneys, then go in judges chambers and do what they intended to do before costing the client 1500 in court time. If the glove fits; have the client drink soy sauce by the ton before court. Science is accepting the facts that appear, not allowing someone to tell one what the facts mean. Look to the forrest, not the trees.

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 10:20 pm

      Keith, if one will not accept history in the matter of The Trial of Thomas Earl of Strafford, Lord of Ireland, in regard to forced loans (trial for High Treason). If one will not accept that the main purpose of the I.R.S. is to inquire of the private matters of the subjects so that they know how much to levy against. If one does not understand I.R.S. is territorial. If one does not understand that the ‘con’ cannot be found out. If one does not understand the jury says “I’m bad, therefore I hold you to be bad FOR DOING RIGHT. If one will not accept current Fed statements that the federal reserve note is based upon the General and Paramount Lien of the Banking Act of 1913. If one will not accept current practice under Escheats making the government the Lord Paramount. If one chooses not to believe difficult “fact”, and would rather accept easy hearsay; I cannot make you drink keith. Just study to find what water is instead of drinking.

      I’ve learned all of this worthless garbage not by going to law school, but; by being beat up by atturn ey (Latin) twisters of the truth. I studied, and I studied. I did not believe a thing I heard (school of hard knocks from 1984) Attorney is an officer of the state, and owes his obligation to the state first (summary), private club to shear the sheep. I’ve seen too many judges coach the attorneys, and then take them in the back room of darkness to arrange the end.

      Don’t believe a thing I write. Go find out for yourself.

      Keith, put your theory of where the loans come from. And, I’ll write my theory again of where I believe the loans come from. Let, Rick’s group decide what is real based upon supported information an facts.

      I answered your question as asked in two words. Provide your theory, disprove my presumptions, or stand out of the way and let the readers make judgment. Right now I win because you default with no facts.

  • keith September 29, 2010, 8:21 pm

    Answer this… the money that the Fed lent out to the commercial banks…. do they have to repay it? Nope. It was swapped for assets. So who did the Fed lend the money from and who has to pay back the Fed? I’m waiting eagerly for the reply. I don’t expect to get an answer BTW.

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 8:39 pm

      On a more serious note:

      The national and state [governments], not being foreign to one another as the [Original several States] are, but subordinate parts of one complete system of Government. . . ” Bennett v. Bennett 1 Deady 307 Oregon.

      Is it possible to understand the internal workings of multiple lesser included corporations, all doing the bidding of the mother corporation, yes ! You borrow from yourself, you pay yourself, and you love yourself, and then you lie about it; quite simple if one will grasp the the concept of corporate veils and triangles.

      Keep everyone too busy growing potatoes, and no one has time to see what is really happening – Old Russian theory.

    • Steve September 30, 2010, 1:08 am

      Keith, do you repay what you borrow from yourself ? If you do it is all ponzy lies! Under Master/servant Law the get ‘us’ own nothing, that belonging to the master, and the tally laid against us in numbers fiat. You have a strong will Keith, so your value is great as long as you are not rebellious. The I.R.S. has inquired of your tally, to know what to force you to loan of your labor/credit. The house of representatives has placed its orders for projects ” bills”, and the debt is reported on budget and off budget, and black hole. The fee is adjudged against the property you hold as a debtor in possession, as was inquired by the Tax Assessor, to the Fee Simple Absolute.

      If the premise of Master/servant Law is incorrect then there can be no reason to the equation. Maritime, Equity, Master Servant, Roman Civil Law, Torts, Admiralty, Military, Common Law, de Facto Law; what is the rule book for the game that is being played?

      So the fed, who is a private cartel, operated a line of banks, who all work to the same goal, borrowing and lending in an appearance of Public Activity, when they are in fact private. One hand lends to the other, and the only Thing real is that I was an allodialits Free Man, and now I am alleged to be a corporate enfranchisee of a new paradigm feudal scheme in fee.

      The real economy, and real Coin Money silver Specie is there. Why will not your congress fund the real economy? Why do you refuse to operate in honest terms in Peace and Dignity with legitimate ‘value’ and ‘banking’? The real Republic waits for you, why do you practice democracy? 10 Stat 146; read and weep when compared to Amos H. Short v. Francis Ertimanager 5 Opin 354 – 525, “Utterly Null and Void”. And then “On either local, personal, or political grounds, the great body of the people, without nicely scanning the merits of the legal question, upheld ‘the locations act’, by sheer force of public opinion, and the subsequent proceedings under it, and practically it became a valid act, by sheer force of public opinion. . .” Oregon General Laws 1872, pg 55, ft.nt. 2, Matthew P. Deady, federal district Judge, codifier. Don’t tell me the water doesn’t stink, and that what is being done is not rebellion by the masses. Simple Anarchy controlled by Liberals who’s thought process is the most bigoted expression conceivable. I lifted the mystical magical curtain – do you like the image revealed as individual rebellion on Local, Personal, or Political grounds? Do you like “sheer force”, “practically” “not scanning the legal merits” reason to turn you into a slave under abuses that are “. . .utterly null and void. . .”. The people are ignorant, the people don’t want to know the truth Keith.

      THE TRUTH IS WHAT ONE FINDS NOT NECESSARILY WHAT ONE WANTS TO KNOW

    • mike September 30, 2010, 5:05 am

      keith,

      my understanding is that any bank “creates” money when they make a loan and the loan is a bank asset as long as it is being serviced with payments. the fed is a bank and creates money when it makes a loan to the treasury in exchange for treasury bonds. the money lent to commercial banks theoretically must be paid back and notes from the commercials are carried as assets on the fed’s balance sheet.

      the charade continues (so far) because of so much debt denominated in usd and the need to pay taxes in usd keeps up the illusion of value in paper money. at some point after enough debt is defaulted on or converted to cash by the fed buying it (watch for the fed to begin buying munis) there will be enough usd washing around to take us into runaway inflation.

  • C.C. September 29, 2010, 6:05 pm

    Two key points I take away from 3 Lions post:

    – ‘Flash Crash’ as opposed to ‘stair step’ (muddling through)

    – ‘Rules’ – or more specifically, those who decide to play by a different set of them, like say our political/economic leadership.

    The flash crash point is fairly self-evident. We don’t live in the 30’s – where self-reliance, patience and perseverance attributes are the norm among the electorate. We live in a ‘Want it now’, 3-second sound-bite, emotionally overdriven, entertainment-gorged bizarro-world, where Government intervention becomes the solution for everything, or else…

    The only realistically visible way of righting a ship so corrupt, is likely to be a cataclysmic event, or series of events that simply overwhelm the system as it stands. And who knows, with Government intrusion/intervention at all levels, that might just usher in something even worse.

    Regarding ‘Rules’:

    Some here on this board may have caught a ’round table’ interview on FSN about 1.5 years ago, regarding the Inflation/Deflation debate. Not to beat that argument again, but there was a guest on the show by the name of Daniel Amerman.

    The key point he made that resonated with me, was this exact supposition that the underlying rules (economic/financial/political) we have lived by – for generations, have been changed and therefore, outcomes that would have normally been associated with hard & fast ‘rules’, have been turned on their head.

    Accounting rule changes, FASB, CPI measurements, M3 – everyone knows how these have been fornicated – or was that ‘fabricated’ – one in the same perhaps?

    When ‘covering up/over’ becomes the norm, you can in fact, alter the laws of financial physics – for a time…
    All it means is that when the day of reckoning does arrive, it will be swift, unforgiving and likely permanent, both from an economic standpoint and more soberingly, a political one as well.

    • Benjamin September 29, 2010, 6:30 pm

      Why are so many people these days so sure that yesterdays human nature was so different than todays?

      http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

      It sure seems to me that so many in yesterday’s world wanted gold out of the picture. Nothing is different about people now… except that we have, on a global scale, what yesterday wanted so badly.

    • keith September 29, 2010, 7:08 pm

      Steve, “forced loans” doesn’t even remotely answer my question. So I’ll ask it again. From WHO did the federal reserve borrow the trillions of dollars from?

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 8:31 pm

      Keith, I was born in 1950 and I owed no debt when I hit the ground because I was an allodialist. Today, I’m 400k in debt by forced legislative loans after every asset is sold, and debt claimed in chattle against the labor of my hands. I was free, now I am indentured to debt that cannot be paid by congress’s force. Ignoring the facts does not work. I tend to agree with C.C. that the Laws of Nature will not be kind.

      Keith, it appears you believe you are a free man in a free nation. Simply, WRONG THEORY BASED IN ABSOLUTE IGNORANCE OF REALITY, and failure to study the information that exists on the Banking Act of 1913, the Constitution, especially Article I, sec. 8, cls. 4, and Article I, sec. 10, cls. 1, and history (call it case law)

      Just because one believes that frn debt is a “straw man” does not mean that the boot of the Jack will not crush you.

      Choose grasshopper, but; choose wisely; and always seek the facts, not what is supposed..

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 9:32 pm

      Benjamin, I have lived long enough to have witnessed the moral decline of humanity into self serving greed. I walked free anywhere as a small child with no fear. I walked the streets and heard people greet each other, and friends helping friends when there were blasts, floods, and drownings. (not the governments job, and no one asked the government to get involved) I have witnessed the moral decline from 1950, and I sit here today witness to the lies and self serving greed that is today. It seems percentages swing, ebb with the tide, and return again with the pulling of a new moon. There will always be bad, and there will always be good. How that all stacks up is like the tides of the sea, first morality based upon subsistence and truth, then finally immorality coming as more wish to control the thoughts of the many, and make all to their own image as new kings fight for kingdoms.(futures trading the labor, and commodities of the many under 1 person who gains the most – leverage)

      My life exists in the time of moral decline from pretty good in 1950. Your time probably exists in the slowing tide of time heading to the slack at low tide. (look forward to a moral world again – it is just that I believe the price for Liberty will need to be paid again as the cycle heads up) In other words Benjamin I saw much more good, and much more hope for a better life when I was born. And, I have seen that hope for something better for my children fall into the reality that Liberty is lost as an easy thing to hold, that there is little hope for the ‘middle class’; all else resting in the few, and the privileged who are immoral and soulless.

      I’m not saying that cultures do not cycle. Certainly the Roman Empire declined not because of a lack of wealth, or military power, but; simply fell because of the moral decline of men into the pit of worthlessness.

      Freedom grew out of the fall of the Roman Empire, and it was painful, and paid for with blood. I lived in the Common Law in 1950, today we all live in Roman Civil Law. The circle of history completes with the very moral decline that last took down Roman Culture based in whoredom and slaves and mercenaries.

      To find what I saw when I was a boy seems to take listening to the Framers, and listening to what was said about the Tree of Liberty. I fear that all cycles are by Nature a rising and falling that we cannot control. The Red Baron is reported to have told his new recruits – Never go into a fight you do not have the advantage in. Baron flew out of the blazing sun. Fly home to fight again. He had 80 kills – and he was killed at age 25 because that is the cycle of war.

      I am but a witness to the hope that was life in 1950 in the West were Freedom fled the crowd. I also bear witness to what my son Benjamin faces today – very little hope – in 2010. Benjamin is improving himself by attending college, but; I do not believe he knows the Peace I knew when I grew up in 1950. Nor, is there any bright new future based in common dignity and honesty. The generation born in 1982 seems to understand, it is up to them individually, the government a lead anchor. All who get ahead have the peddle to the metal, and are running stop signs with reckless disregard.

      I see no Peace, nor do I see any Dignity today. The markets are a cesspool as is banking and government. Sad, but; this is just a reflection of society falling under the misnomer of Roman Civil Law as they elect what they are themselves. Still have hope because there will always be moral Men, and the evil always fails. It is just that when I was born the majority were moral, and now that has all changed where the majority electing officials to government have lost their moral compass.

      WHAT HAS THIS GOT TO DO WITH RICK’S PICKS ?
      The market is sick. The governing bodies are sick. Gold is ramping up against its real ‘face’ value. The market is ramping up against any value. The future is bright, and there are far more bulls in every market than ever in history. But; don’t worry it is all different this time. Sounds exciting to me – every market in unexplained updrafts, with everyone chasing the curve.

      Benjamin ! How do you judge ‘good’ when you have never lived there ? What is good to me is a different value in experience than what appears ‘good’ to you in your experience. I believe you will live long enough to see Peace and Dignity again. I fear I will live only long enough to see the slippery slide of hope drown in the cess of the pool.

      Guess I should apologize to Rick for going where I have gone here. Yet; what I speak of will drive the markets, and is driving the markets. Look to where nearly all market activity is; Futures Contracts. Everyone is trading futures at a level never seen before. Any ideas ? Gold ? trading is an abuse of legislative value, Peace, and Dignity of Free States, and constitutional restraints.

  • keith September 29, 2010, 5:51 pm

    I was simply replying to “alleged trillions can only be BORROWED into existence.” I disagree with that. While perhaps mom and pop won’t get their hands on it unless it’s borrowed it can obviously be used to bail out the good old boys ie. the commercial banks and the treasury although in the process the Federal Reserve will bankrupt it’s own self. I just have one question to anyone. Fact- The Federal Reserve created trillions in the last couple years. So who did they borrow it from or to whom are they liable to??? Anyone should be able to answer that in less than five words. Is that too much to ask?

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 6:10 pm

      Tom, Two words – Forced Loans.

      Four words and a dash make five. Six if I include Tom, more words to explain the absolute reality of “Forced Loans”.

      Steven

    • Benjamin September 29, 2010, 6:18 pm

      keith,

      Since you put it that way, I think I can see now that you and Rick are more or less on the same page. Perhaps we shouldn’t still call it the legitimate practice of borrowing, but rather what it is: five-finger discount “borrowing”. As for liability, oh, you better believe they are and can pay it all back…

      http://www.321gold.com/fed/gold/fedgold.jpg

      Hellooo Fort Knox, NYC!

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 6:25 pm

      Opps; Keith, not Tom !!!!

  • Steve September 29, 2010, 5:34 pm

    The Laws of Nature are gone, a new paradigm in physics and physical forces has entered a reality created by the single need to win an election. Unknown Obama parameters have intervened to defy gravity in princely feudal designs of hot wind holding a ball gravitated by superheated air forced through a nozzle pointed to the heavens to defy godly powers of gravity. The ball floats in mystical magical mysterious ways by powers professed by persons “They”.

    I guess I understand that most are concerned about the “buck” today and all concern for life is focused on today and only today. In contradistinction I have been focused on the future of my children, my grandchildren, and those who will follow after that. I have written about the losses in the last 60 years I have lived personally. The longer one lives, the more one sees the cycles, all the same in reality, but; of different names, and different colors by persons who chant the way it will be. In the 1930’s the unemployed smoked hemp in the sub-ways to wile away the time. Today, the administration is hemp, and hemp is promoted for the feel good, and for futures in sin taxes yet untapped. In 10 years of Law Enforcement I never had a problem with hemp smokers. To a one they all just sat there saying “Hey Man”, “Whatsup”. To a one, every hard core drug induced home invader, robber, murderer started with hemp with a healthy dose of clear grain legalized taxation. We mortals live in dialectic truth. Yet there is only one truth about gravity as long as the Earth holds together. And then there is the gravity of the Sun. If the Sun fails, then other gravitational forces will play upon what is real infinitum. There are these question taught to law enforcement people, scientists, and investigators; who, what, when, where, why.

    What is occurring is unnatural. The cost to keep a ball levitated against the Laws of Nature become more and more costly in terms of lost energy diffused to the wind to keep appearances as they are not. The ball will fall. Who is responsible, or will be responsible (the people). What happened to make this occur ? (the people refused the Law). When will it occur is unknown, but; what is known historically is that the longer Nature is interfered with, the worse the event will be – earthquakes for instance). Where – everywhere – yet worse for those who deny Reality Nature the most) Why, appears to be denial of Law, and bigoted thoughts on today.

    There has been a single force focused on a single Tuesday in November. The miracle that put Obama in office still works to keep Obama and the democrats in office. The markets must go up to keep the current party in office. The science of time lag on stimulus is a theory well practiced by the fed, and others. We, what is left of American Culture, think very short term, nearly stuck in a single day of life. Market trading has evolved, not to the belief in Laws, but; momentary trades catching a ripple while forgetting the wave. Machines do the trading in milliseconds, yes ?

    Why would a government seize investments that they already own by the general and paramount Lien of the Banking Act of 1913 ? Coin money on the other hand is a danger to democratic feudal control because Coin can be used in historical trade beyond the control of the new federal feudalism.

    The logic expressed often baffles me because “value” is how many persons a building can support. The mexican is much smarter than Americans in this regard, and able to parlay 8.00 wages into a good life by not squandering resources like we do. The “value”of a newborn child here, within a feudal monarchy in succession, is minus 400k at birth, and the loss to inherit Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

    Silver has a legislative value under the Coinage Act of 1792, and the currency act of 1985. Gold is valued in silver.

  • Tom Paine September 29, 2010, 5:11 pm

    Rick,

    I am not sure you are right that there has to be any collateral for the money being created “from thin air.” Of course, in a sound money system there would have to be some collateral, but doesn’t the term “from thin air”
    precisely define that money as having no collateral.

    If a counterfeiter could create perfect bills and spend them into the economy, would there be any collateral for them? Would those bills not stimulate economic activity? Well, I guess the latter depends on a few factors that I don’t want to get into now. But certainly if enough of these countefeit bills were produced, and people went out and spent them, it would cause inflation.

    I understand that the amount of “thin air” money produced may not have been enough to cover what was destroyed in the credit collapse, but I see no reason why it could not be.

    Of course, this is all very complex. Economics isn’t called “the dismal science” for nothing. Terms like “money”, “wealth”, “value”, etc., are tough to pin down, and I must admit that I really don’t understand all the relationships between the Treasury and the Fed and how FRN are created.

    Sometimes people say that every new FRN is created from debt, but I wonder at the meaning of that now that there is no backing of any kind. Is an “IOU nothing” a debt?

    &&&&&&&

    All new money must be borrowed into the system, even when it is the Fed doing the borrowing. The Fed does so using such transparent ruses as “paying” for T-Bonds, Bills and Notes with “proceeds” from the “sale” of mortgage “securities.” This Ponzi variation can finance Keynesian spending, as it has; but you and I — i.e., consumers — cannot get in on the game unless we are able to borrow against real collateral. If we operated like the Fed, though, we would do our borrowing against, for instance, IOUs we hold from our poker buddies. Actually, Fed-style would have us buy very-nearly worthless customer IOUs at a discount from a bartender, and then to use those IOUs — valued at par, of course — as collateral to borrow with 20-to1 leverage. RA

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 6:04 pm

      Tom, There is nothing thin air about the current money. Banking Act of 1913 “General and Paramount Lien for use of frn” – I have gone from allodialist (free man) to corporate enfranchisee (slave); guess I protest too much though !. The current scheme is a tally of numbers against the life of your children’s children’s children’s inheritance “Credit” of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

      The People do not want to know the current reality that they have sold their birthright for a bowl of venison stew. Accepting FACT might mean paying the price for the crimes against our children done even before they are born. Become liberal in thought, and open up the senses to the fact that a price has been paid allowing the creation of money via futures contracts on the soul of humanity for as far as can be imagined.

      It is fiat money, under territorial control of a slaver congress, based upon the futures market of human flesh. The slave auction is still in full force and effect. No good slaves, a high price. A new shipment of flesh of strong back, a low price. Nothing of value on the farm, sell one’s own child. Nothing of value left; pierce thy ear, and enslave thy wife thereby insuring thy get to the master under Master/servant Law. Don’t want to lose the touch of your children – stay with thy master because the get is his by law. Send the get to the master’s school – do not train up your child in Righteousness in thy home, for that would be responsible. Send thy mother to work in trade so that she may not teach thy child in thy home to know Right from Wrong by reading the Law, and History of Good.

      Need more Credit, allow illegals to enter the country, provide free citizenship, get the tattoo SSN number on the brain, and in the pocket, or in one’s hand by zip card or implant, project that forward infinitum under Master/servant Law – Wow ! We got currency to tally the debt owed by voluntary enfranchisees.

      Credit is the Power of the Hands of Man in labor. Slavery allows the master to enter the Futures Market by Man not taking care of his Inheritance “Credit” by deception of a bank who will take the Credit of Man and make debts of it. Spend enough time in greed and Man will end up loosing the Right to Inherit only to be a slave taken care of by the Master “Obamacare” which is based in the Commerce Clause saying that sick slaves are bad for the economy.

      THE TRUTH IS WHAT ONE FINDS NOT NECESSARILY WHAT ONE WANTS TO KNOW

    • keith September 29, 2010, 8:17 pm

      Yes and no. The Fed transfers debt to the treasury yes. But, in the case of the Fed buying bad mortgages and OTCD’s from the commercial banks it bailed out the banks and weakened the balance sheet of the Fed, which intern weakened the dollar. The money wasn’t borrowed. Sorry, it just wasn’t.

    • keith September 29, 2010, 8:19 pm

      Answer this… the money that the Fed lent out to the commercial banks…. do they have to repay it? Nope. It was swapped for assets.

    • Steve September 29, 2010, 8:21 pm

      Bad theory – Dollar versus Federal Reserve Notes.
      Someone is selling oranges and calling them apples. No reality can survive such abuses of science.

      Thanks Rick !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • socrates964 September 29, 2010, 3:06 pm

    Hi Rick,

    no, agreed, the US is in much worse shape than Brazil, and there will be lots of people destitute on the streets. The point I’m making is not that everything will be fine because the stock market will go up, but that the stock market will simply go up as an artefact of expansive monetary policy. This is why I’m sanguine about the US stock market but not about the US economy. You are probably better off owning say P&G stock than a US government bond. In Brazil in 1990, Collor froze everyone’s bank deposits but didn’t touch the stock market – the smart people had anticipated this and had hundreds of bank accounts each or a barter market arose – hence stocks became stores of value much more than bonds. I don’t see the US as being this financially savvy. Your wild card is that government decides to do something really coercive like confiscating everyone’s investments, at which point, it will be blood on the streets, but nothing I’ve seen so far suggests that this will happen. It’s much more likely that it will repudiate nominal debt by inflating their value to zero.

    &&&&&&

    I agree that the bonds of good companies are a much better play than the bonds of an already bankrupt U.S. government. When I wrote on this topic earlier, I specifically mentioned the bonds of Johnson & Johnson, Merck, IBM and Safeway — among others — as being safer than Treasurys.

    Concerning the repudiation of debt via inflation, we need to keep in mind that this would destroy savers and lenders (aka, Masters of the Universe) as a class. RA

    • socrates964 September 29, 2010, 5:52 pm

      Hi Rick,

      absolutely, but most of them are foreigners (who don’t vote in US elections) and the US still worships at the feet of JM Keynes, so screwing savers seems to me to be par for the course.

  • socrates964 September 29, 2010, 2:29 pm

    FWIW, here’s a Brazilian perspective. I lived through the hyperinflation of the late 80s and 90s when Brazilian stocks always went up in nominal terms. The game was not to work out whether they were going up or down but whether they would outpace the government inflation indicator. At least in Brazil, the government interest rate was essentially set as a spread over a projected inflation rate, which is not the case in the US today.
    It should thus be blindingly obvious to anyone who never studied finance 101 (and hence who missed the crap about government bonds being the lowest risk instruments) that good stocks will go UP, UP, UP in nominal terms because the underlying companies have passive pricing power (a trend which will accelerate as the Chinese lose their competitive edge). Think of it another way. Govt bond + mortgage bond mkt = 20x the market cap of the NYSE (roughly) – so you don’t need much of a shift at the margin out of bonds to get big cash flows into equities (and as Rick, I think, pointed out the other day, dividend yields are outpacing bond yields). As mentioned, you have a pretty good true inflation indicator in gold and it currently says that the rate is around 18-19% per year and accelerating (and just check your shopping basket to see whether you agree).

    Hence, what’s not to like about stocks? If your benchmark is a bond, then stocks are the go-to investment. If your benchmark is the true cost of living, then even if stocks rise by 10-15% a year, you’re still losing money in real terms.
    The US is showing the kind of inflation that Brazil showed in the 1960s. It could go on for 5-20 years before it really becomes a problem.

    &&&&&&

    Great post, although I question whether the economic system can survive for as much as five years if U.S. home prices, already under water, continue to lag, or as is far more likely, to fall substantially further. For unlike Americans, Brazilians had not hocked their retirement plans, their kids’ college tuitions and all the rest against real estate collateral. RA

  • SDavid September 29, 2010, 1:22 pm

    Like many people, I ponied up the money to take Rick’s course. It has been very helpful. Would I have taken the course if I thought the markets were going to self-destruct overnight? The answer to that is a resounding, NO.”

    One wouldn’t need the course if all we were willing to do with it is buy gold and short the markets, after all.

    • Rick Ackerman September 29, 2010, 2:22 pm

      Buying gold and shorting the markets would have been a push. Fortunately, and irrespective of how much you may have hated stocks, Hidden Pivot analysis would have kept you on the right side of gold AND the stock market throughout the Mother of All Bear Rallies, as it did me and anyone who subscribed to Rick’s Picks. RA

  • mario cavolo September 29, 2010, 5:05 am

    In fact…”the sort of we know and suspected” becomes more and more blatantly obvious in which case it is not something to suspect anymore, its normal. Mark my words, soon the gov’t/bankers will in fact acknowledge this publicly with perfectly crafted words and make it also sound like nothing less than part of the necessary new normal and it will all be normal and it is all normal. Which is why I stick to my thesis that there will be no doomsday collapse of anything. Relative currency devaluation and inflation of prices will continue as it has historically, the value of currency’s actual purchasing power will simply continue to decline, they will and they are inflating away the debts in this manner and the world’s governments have plenty of tricks up their sleeves.

    I’ve been short oil the past several weeks and I don’t have to tell you how frustrating its been to watch this manipulated prop up of oil prices but in fact its just part of this controlled and managed scenario we are now in.

    Look at it from the government leaders point of view. From their point of view, this is what they have to do, I don’t see how they really have a choice given the set of variables they face today. Let things collapse?…I regard that as “sounds good on paper” idealism at best…if I was in charge and my imaginary board of governors explained all the variables to me, I’d probably also set policies to keep interest rates low and prop up the stock market as a key component of attempting to maintain economic stability, etc.

    Cheers, Mario

    &&&&&&

    The juggernaut bearing down on us has grown ten thousand-fold in the last two decades. To suggest that the political hacks and their bumbling, hyper-educated, miserably incompetent appointees are somehow in control — that “They won’t let it happen” — is like saying dung beetles have sunspots and the Yellowstone caldera under control. RA

    • redwilldanaher September 29, 2010, 5:10 pm

      Of course you would Mario if you’ve already entered into a faustian pact as the overwhelming majority of these dung beetles have. They want to maintain the status quo. The power structures that they man and control. Not just the sociopols but their handlers. Everyone knows that market manipulation has been around forever and I commented in Rick’s forum that it is becoming so blatant that it will soon become the norm, but the reality is that you need to let capitalism function if you want capitalism function. Obviously they do not. They’re not being open about what measures they are taking and plan to take. Does the lack of transparency bother you? You know what they say about the medicinal qualities of light. We know whom they’ve aided and whom they’ve left the bill. We know that if they succeed in maintaining it that they have more control than ever before over it and that we can’t expect them to halt their manipulation even if it is ultimately successful. That means that we’re faced with an even worse version of the matrix to contend with as a result. I’d like to know where you come down on things. I’d rather see a return to something closer to organic reality despite the harsh short-term consequences than to live in an overwhelmingly artificial and controlled biosphere that they’ll never stop tinkering with, even if they experience nothing but boredom. Aside from the fact that it’s deceitful and immoral…

    • Seth Brubaker September 29, 2010, 5:26 pm

      Mario,
      Great comments – I totally agree with your final paragraph and have been saying the same.

      All,
      Great comments overall. I just started reading here and find your comments for more useful than those at ZeroHedge for profiting in the current manipulated market. If you can’t beat them (PPT etc.), join them.

    • Benjamin September 29, 2010, 6:44 pm

      Mario said: “I regard [pull the plug] as “sounds good on paper” idealism at best…”

      Ah, come on Mr. Cavolo… We have it on good authority from Benjamin Franklin that security provides neither liberty nor security. Timeless truth, that, and I always remind the health insurance junkies of it, to name yet another example of what we have good reason to lament losing.

      There is no crash that wouldn’t set us free and back on the right path. The only bumps along the road to real recovery would be those bankers and politicians who keep insisting that nothing but fiat will work, and that there isn’t enough gold and silver to run modern economies.

      You don’t have to swallow the poison. Spit it out!

  • JohnJay September 29, 2010, 4:33 am

    Oh well.
    I guess it is easier to keep the stock market pumped up than the housing market.
    I wonder when the day of reckoning is coming for all those holding that bad mortgage paper.
    Oh, yeah, thanks to the wonderful bailouts, that’s you and me!
    Has the Fed started buying the bad Student Loan paper and CRE paper yet?
    Rigging the stock market is child’s play.
    You can’t buy and sell millions of houses in a micro-second to keep prices going up.

    &&&&&&

    Easier to buy stocks higher, for sure. If you know how to work the index futures, you could probably buy yourself an evening-news-headline rally for a pittance — maybe $200m-$300m. RA

  • keith September 29, 2010, 12:22 am

    The question that arises is: Can the U.S. have a rising stock market in the midst of a slowing economy? My answer is, absolutely yes.

    Deflation rules the day for sure. The amount of money that was created should have put the economy into overdrive and prices soaring, from houses to big-macs. Trillions of dollars can barely make up the difference in collapsing debt.

    However, and this is what I believe is unrecognized by many, the trillions of new money WILL go somewhere. Where it goes nobody knows but it sure does look like it’s going into the stock market.

    I expect new all time highs in the stock indexes within 2 years or less. I stand by that. Can anyone say DOW 16,000????

    &&&&

    The mythological, alleged trillions can only be BORROWED into existence against some collateral — such as your way underwater McMansion, right? RA

    • I88 September 29, 2010, 6:15 am

      Keith, by all means, go all in with margin! I’m with you here…Why not say, 20,000? How bout’ 30,000? Hmmm, Sounds reasonable. Thinking too small maybe? As long as the NY Fed, its primary dealers and HFT firms care to fund in this giant rigged QE toga party and scalp the poor regular folk with 15% stops, it’s all good. Spike my punchbowl with some yummy Apple, CAT and Priceline right off the daily POMO. Just don’t stand on the edge of the 50th floor balcony thinking you can fly… Ah, don’t worry, I got your back.

    • keith September 29, 2010, 10:23 am

      I don’t have a McMansion -I rent. I’m not in the stock market either. I own gold.

      But anyway, to my understanding the trillions aren’t mythological and they do not have to be borrowed to enter various markets. The Federal Reserve created thin air money and swapped it for the bad assets of the commercial banks effectively bailing out the banking system. What if the banks decide they don’t want to hold on to the dollars? Can’t they enter the money in other markets? Stocks, bonds, foreign reserves, gold? I think they’ll get a little nervous if the bottom falls out of the dollar.

      &&&&&&

      With this string of argumentative non sequiturs, you’re just *acting* dense and obtuse, right? Why not attempt to support “your understanding” of things, perhaps by telling us in what form those “trillions” exist? That might not only help you to better understand the money system, but to better understand why you’ve got your non-facts so wrong. RA

    • Benjamin September 29, 2010, 1:32 pm

      Keith,

      Money printed from nothing is money borrowed against future production/generations. And why would it go into stocks and bonds, if they’re trying to avoid dollars?

    • redwilldanaher September 29, 2010, 4:34 pm

      Then where’s the volume Keith? Where’s the real buying? Over 90% of it has been done with pre or post market futures manipulation. There hasn’t even been any downside volatility INTRADAY. Outflows have been huge from John Q. Public. Funds have had record low cash levels (approx. 3%) for months now. They’re fully invested. The news has been decidely negative despite the customary spin. You think that the best September since 1939 on virtually no volume and volatility in the face of obvious deterioration passes the smell test? Look Keith, this is what they do, and they’re very good at it but to act like the roulette table is true, or that there isn’t any cheating going on and that they observe chinese walls etc. and thus the market is simply a discounting mechanism for an organically revolving world is to ignore overwhelming evidence that’s been statistically analyzed and confirmed. Zero Hedge has been chronicling the POMO rig work for some time now. So you are correct that $ is flowing into the market but it’s being done to support the market and for pysops purposes and also for self preservation. It’s not real buying Keith. It’s nearly entirely artificial with algo momo sprinkled on top. Not to be a jerk but I honestly suggest that you spend more time searching for the answers. They are out there and they are free. Not all of them but many of them. I’m not suggesting you shouldn’t play the upside if you see it, I’m suggesting that you understand how it’s being accomplished so that you’re fully informed and thus know what your up against. And do please remember that after the wheels came off it required manipulation of nearly everything just to bring things back to the pathetic state they are in currently. I’m talking about changing accounting rules. I’m talking about legalized fraud. I’m talking about different standards for different players. I’m talking about John Q. left holding the bag on it all too. If you really think that the best place for your next batch of marginal investment dollars is to go bttw long the US stock market then by all means do so. I can think of many other countries that I’d prefer to own than something that requires pounds of make up just to look like a pathetic has been.

    • mario cavolo September 29, 2010, 5:58 pm

      RWD…you get a big time gold star for that thought stream…Cheers, Mario

  • Bradley September 29, 2010, 12:17 am

    Somehow, to me, irritated and negative reads better than loonie and negative. When good traders, who have been around for a long time, can’t make much sense of what is going on in “the markets”, that is a reasonable warning signal. (When the rest of us who can not expect to be called good traders can’t make sense of what is going on, usually that is called a “bull market”…)

    Thank goodness for gold is all I gotta say…

    • keith September 29, 2010, 5:50 pm

      I was simply replying to “alleged trillions can only be BORROWED into existence.” I disagree with that. While perhaps mom and pop won’t get their hands on it unless it’s borrowed it can obviously be used to bail out the good old boys ie. the commercial banks and the treasury although in the process the Federal Reserve will bankrupt it’s own self. I just have one question to anyone. Fact- The Federal Reserve created trillions in the last couple years. So who did they borrow it from or to whom are they liable to??? Anyone should be able to answer that in less than five words. Is that too much to ask?