Geithner Unconvincing as Friend of Dollar

The literary critic George Steiner has argued that Germany was unable to produce any great novelists in the post-War period because the German language itself had lost its integrity and vitality in the service of Hitler’s and Goebbels’ nefarious goals.  Is it possible the English language is about to suffer a similar fate, vitiated by the lies our leaders tell to make the nation’s reckless economic policies somehow seem prudent?  Consider U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s declaration concerning a “strong dollar” yesterday during a roundtable discussion in Tokyo for reporters: “I believe deeply that it’s very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar,” said Geithner. “We bear special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policy in the U.S. that will sustain confidence not just among American investors and .. savers but investors around the world” that the U.S. will fix its budgetary problems as its economy improves.

Judge-for-yourself

Come again?  Was the man perhaps speaking in code so that the reporters might read between the lines?  We don’t know what kind of story they may have filed, but unless the journalists decided collectively in advance to bend over backwards to be polite, they should have laughed Geithner out of the room. For his part, the Treasury secretary treated the press conference like an open mike night at some third-rate comedy club.  We doubt that he would have had the effrontery to make such ridiculous statements before, say, the National Press Club in Washington. D.C.  Or would he have?  Maybe we’re wrong about that, since not only did the Journal  fail to ask any of the right questions, it did nothing to suggest anyone other than Geithner was present in the room.  There were no quotes from Japanese officials, no questions from reporters, and no presence to evince even a mote of skepticism.  The article’s author was one Takashi Makamichi, and we would infer that he was capable of translating any reactions that may have been critical toward Geithner. But if this was the case, Makamichi evidently decided not to rock the boat.

Health-Plan Sales Job 

Geithner’s dog-and-pony show was similar to press conferences held in the U.S. to convince us that the Obama-Pelosi health plan will save U.S. taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars. That straight-faced assertion did not get laughed out of the room either, and one might get the impression that The Government and the news media, Fox excepted, had colluded to bolster the ridiculous notion that the health plan will somehow benefit Americans without costing them an arm and a leg. We can only hope that the Journal’s many readers – the paper has the largest circulation of any U.S. newspaper – are devoting more time to the editorial page than to news stories.  “The Worst Bill Ever” is how the Journal’s opinion-page editors headlined the definitive hatchet job on the Obama/Pelosi boondoggle.  If reporters persist in seeing things the Administration’s way, however, it is going to require an even more elliptical departure from truth than the reportage of Geithner’s Tokyo talk. 

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  • Chris T. November 13, 2009, 7:16 pm

    Senior:

    “Also gold has failed to reach a new high in the other currencies. ”
    Does that not demonstrate the dollars weakness then?

    “I say we’re ripe for a dollar rally very soon, no thanks to Timmy”
    Perhaps then, the gold high in other currencies will be set, like it was in EUR early this year?

    “This is deflation and gold will be strong, but the moonshot talk is all inflationista delusion. $1100+ was a good strong stab higher.”

    If gold is not a commodity, whose value, measured in dollars, would decline during dollar-appreciation (=deflation), but rather if gold IS money (as it was for about 98+% of history), then should it not increase in value during money*appreciation (=deflation)?

    Things above money on Exter’s pyramid decline in deflation, the lowest layers appreciate…
    Though I do not know where to lump the layer+1 above money (T-bills, bonds, etc), they should decline too, but will they? Or will the sheep treat them, as so often before, as (better than) cash-equivalents, thus shuffling the layers?

    My $0.10 (the copper-clad kind)

  • mthomas November 13, 2009, 5:23 pm

    i personally don’t think it’s a good idea to be shorting gold here. I can understand the rationale behind not being long given all the bullish news on gold now, but I still like gold over the long term. and i read a good article on the gold price called Gold Price Trades Near Record as Budget Deficit Explodes which discusses some comments made by Barrick Gold’s ceo on gold mine supply and production, as well as the views on gold of a bunch of well known investors like Jim Rogers, John Paulson, and David Einhorn.

  • Nitram November 12, 2009, 10:31 pm

    nice Call on Gold Rick——- The tumble followed a new high by the contract of $1,123.4 an ounce, hit during the session in electronic trade.

  • Robert November 12, 2009, 9:33 pm

    Hi Rick,
    As the ole saying goes, “Talk is Cheap”. The dollar IMO however will go up short term to save face, on Mr. Obama’s trip to China. IMO buy gold next Tuesday (turnaround Tuesday).

  • Senor Cuidado November 12, 2009, 9:20 pm

    Rick, what do you think of the silver non-confirmation here? Also gold has failed to reach a new high in the other currencies.

    I say we’re ripe for a dollar rally very soon, no thanks to Timmy.

    This is deflation and gold will be strong, but the moonshot talk is all inflationista delusion. $1100+ was a good strong stab higher.

    …rents are dropping all over the USA. This is not the 70’s.

  • Rich November 12, 2009, 9:14 pm

    Rick, you nailed this major story trashing the markets.
    Timmaay in Singapore told them US borrowing coming down as TARP has a surplus. Surplus? Must be that new government accounting that doesn’t mark things to market or anything real. Pay no attention to the markets behind the curtain.
    Today, as Bridge Player Railroad Buff Billionaires Buffett and Gates hold their Summit at Columbia Business School, we have the largest October government deficits ever on receipts down -18%. CNBC experts are telling US why it doesn’t matter and taxes aren’t going higher except for the very rich. Right.
    I’ve got a railroad to sell them and it isn’t Lionel…

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/33883098

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/33888348/

  • Senor Cuidado November 12, 2009, 9:06 pm

    The bad news out of EuroLand has just begun. 4% GDP contraction in Spain? The EU is a mess.

    Meanwhile UK and especially Japan are in basket case debt load territory.

    The dollar crash is against gold. No way can the dollar crash against these other garbage currencies.

  • Chris T. November 12, 2009, 8:20 pm

    Cramer bullish on gold?
    now there is a contrarian indicator.

    Rich:
    “That there are so many gold vehicles should be warning enough that even with a parabolic spike, gold may have come a long way”
    If only 20% of the demand for gold that was met by these vehicles, and thus had not been diverted away from the real thing, where would the price be now?
    That is ultimately the bottom line when it comes to the allegations of many of these vehicles being naked, though they claim not to be.

    This is also true for unallocated storage.
    If the contango in a future reflects (in part) the storage and other costs (and gold is not in backwardation yet) being borne now by the writer of the future (long), then how can allocated storage be completely free, unless those allocated accounts actually are naked, as alleged?

    IMHO, even if the demand for gold were to collapse by 50%, but all remaining went into the physical only, then we would not be at 900-1100.

    Like with JPM and the restitution they paid for storage fees on silver which they never bought nor stored some years ago.

  • Rich November 12, 2009, 3:59 pm

    Aloha Jeff, Mark et al
    Right. Of the two, we prefer ETF GLL above 10.13 with Trailing Buy Stop:
    http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-etns-are-riskier-than-they-look-29589
    The Leveraged ETNs and ETFs leave a lot to be desired, with time-wasting derivatives (options) and geometric compounding, one reason for FAS and FAZ reverse splits and changing terms. http://www.direxionfunds.com/index.html
    But they do not have margin calls like the derivatives WEB likes. If we can borrow with conservative margin to short their opposites (UBG, IAU, DGP, DGL, UGC, HBD.To, BLL.L, BULP.L, LBU.L, PHAU.L, PHGP,L, GBS.L), then time and men’s mistakes may be more on our side. That there are so many gold vehicles should be warning enough that even with a parabolic spike, gold may have come a long way from 252 in 1999. Rick’s made a lot of good money here being long gold…
    Regards*Rich

    ****

    Submitted on 2009/11/12 at 4:02pm

    Leveraged geometric compounding to zero….

    *******

    Submitted on 2009/11/12 at 4:36pm

    Time to fade Crazy Cramer?
    How he learned to stop worrying and love gold:
    He says strong gold and a weak dollar are good for business (if not lenders, savings, budget and trade deficits, buying power and the middle class – so long Lou Dobbs).
    He says high gold prices mean deflation’s not a threat (or high real interest rates and defaults either?)
    He says higher gold prices mean earnings and price recovery (like CIT?)
    He insists gold and oil do not compete with equities (or leveraged ETFs?)
    And the coup de grace? GDXJ, which he says is small gold miners (over $500 M is small? – wonder what Chuck thinks)
    He concludes gold is good. Two legs bad, four legs good, two legs better anyone?
    Straight out of Animal Farm and 1984 Doublespeak.
    If gold is good, where is WEB?
    Out buying BNI coal for Christmas.
    Meanwhile, BHOs about to have a Jobs Summit after new claims dropped four weeks. As if government can add anything to the GDP…

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/33829650

    ************

    Submitted on 2009/11/12 at 4:48pm
    $1122 Peak Gold?

    ABX short-squeeze capitulation buying back their million ounce hedge book for billions with equity dilution may be one key to understanding what’s going on with gold and Big Banks. ABX bought back maybe just in time for a powerful price peak, and now insist gold won’t go below $900. (It can.) Do we have the makings of another deflationary Aubrey McClendon CHK financial suicide with ABX?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/33875450

    *******
    Submitted on 2009/11/12 at 8:11pm

    $TYX just broke out to new 3 month highs with the 30 year auction
    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=%24tyx
    Look out below for the giant sucking sound of debt default implosion…

  • Senor Cuidado November 12, 2009, 10:08 am

    Man, a lot of yuppies were laid off, let go, and otherwise downsized in the past couple of months. Rosenberg’s oncoming 13% means at least 25% U-6. Pretty soon this vortex is going to start sucking down “people who matter” and assorted “beautiful people”.

    That AP story about the 10 states going deep into insolvency should be a wake up for all of the sleepwalkers still out there. This situation is getting more ominous by the day.

    Mostly darkly amusing thing I read today: Bailing out California is the economic equivalent of bailing out France.

  • Chris T. November 12, 2009, 8:17 am

    George Steiner’s thesis sounds interesting, but when one looks at home grown talent, we haven’t been producing too many Hemingways, Bucks, or Steinbecks ourselves (just to name some of our great laureates, I hardly think Ms. Morrison compares). Like here, the greats have been awol in Germany — no Brecht, or Mann, or Hesse — but looking at some of those post-War laureates, Bolle, Grass, they are not nothing. And what about Duerenmatt, Buchheim, and the 2009 laureate Mueller? Her writing is very persuasive.

    Literature in general seems to lack the greats of the past, whether or not such influences as Steiner mentions are there. As to murderous, agenda-driven regimes, the Soviets were no better, but they still had some greats, Pasternak, Solzhenitsyn… Also, one reeducation in Germany was replaced with another, it’s as PC there now as it is here.

    Jeff’s DZZ comment:
    These leveraged things are always losers, as I pointed out after Rick took FAZ to task some time ago. Double short, triple short, they’re only good for day in-and-out, beyond that, it’s capital destruction time.

  • Paul November 12, 2009, 5:43 am

    Whatever Mr. Geithner is saying to the public is not working to support the dollar. If anything, his words may be slowing the dollar’s fall–sorta like a strategic retreat.

    It will be interesting to see how much flight there is to the USDollar went the stock market takes its next dive. Or will the flight to assets continue indefinitely?

    I don’t see anything that the Fed or US Gov’t are doing to try to cause the dollar to go up.

    Lately it looks like ever time the dollar tries to strengthen, then the sellers are jumping in there (such as the Chinese?).

  • mark November 12, 2009, 4:57 am

    hey jeff, what about GLL?
    i own a tiny bit as a hedge,and i would love to lose money on that trade.
    i did sell the last of my free GLD shares afterhours @ 109.91. no worries as i am still well exposed to this pm bull.(just wanted out of that phony paper instrument)
    i also hold small amounts of qid, sds, dxd,and ssg, not that far underwater yet.

    God bless

    mark

  • Jeff Kahn November 12, 2009, 4:15 am

    Hi Rich,

    Don’t buy DZZ ever. It’s run by a bunch of crooks and moves hard against you when gold goes up and barely budges when gold drops.

    Regards,
    Jeff

  • Rich November 12, 2009, 3:57 am

    Aloha All
    Japanese may have a thing about saving face, while Chinese Students do not. They laughed at similar TG assertions in Beijing a while back. Never fear, BHO will soon be in Japan and China for some headline photo ops to quietly ship over what’s left of US gold and arms. The fervent intensity of dollar bears and gold bulls coupled with the parabolic blowoff makes us inclined to enter contrary positions with trailing buy stops if at all. If it’s any tell, GDXJ came public today and closed down. We like SDS above 36.10, DXD above 30.35, FXP above 7.47, SMN above 9.02, EEV above 11.28 and DZZ above 14.27 with trailing stops. Interesting times indeed…
    Regards*Rich